I have received incredibly good feedback on my last two posts about Splinterland Land Math and my prediction that common land would fall to $5. In this final post, I will try to make the full case that I am completely wrong, without invalidating any of my previous math. Ready for this?
Common plots will never drop that low
(Because I would buy them like candy)
This is a quote from a Mav that I was talking to recently, and actually, it started to make some sense. Another good feedback was that if common land would fall this much in price the team would 'do something'. Nerf or boon something or other, do their development magic and fix it in the next phase.
Land is a long term game in Splinterlands, just like in real life - and I know something about that.
So when so many players and investors are looking so far into the future - 5-10 years I have heard - how sure can I be? Well, I am sure of one thing, and that is my math, but what if we could interpret my math in a different way?
Relative value in a limited ecosystem
After doing even more calculations, I am completely convinced that somewhere between 92 and 99.9% of the production value of a region will be situated in the best 200 plots of the 1000 plot region. A lot of that is because of stacking the best cards and titles and totems into those plots, so its going to vary based on the account. I also believe these proportions to be true for tracts as well.
But this doesn't mean that the other plots are worthless, just worth less. Everyone is comfortable with the idea that commons are worth less than rares, but unless commons come down in price.... I fear tracts and regions are EXTREMELY undervalued.
Perhaps that's why a TRACT sold recently:
$95.86 per plot - time will tell how happy this person will be in the future. Its cheap for the castle, will be it cheap for the common plots too?
Let's think about the reward pool for cards. Champions league get a whole lot more prize support than bronze league, same for tournaments. If land is designed to give a permanent bonus to alpha cards, will there still be big prize support for alpha card tournaments? or will some of that be turned over to modern players? I think its likely the latter.
There are only 150,000 plots. I don't want to shout this too loud because they can always 'find' another continent. But the point remains, while 20% of the spaces have a lot of the value, I think its likely that the reward pool is big enough (and diverse enough, in terms of what we can make with land), that even common plots will be worth it to work.
The addition of things such as building construction (investment) plus regional economics and territorial competitions is only going to give this 'long game' even more variables. Imagine trying to buy and sell plots in the future when each plot has a variable number of different buildings at different levels - it will get complicated! (what fun!) Don't forget the state of the keep and the level of the castle that corresponds to each plot 🤔
In the end this is a game of 4th dimensional space, as changes occur over time, there will likely be chances to make a lot of money - especially for the best players.
As per usually, you can pay to win, in this case 10kPP at a time. The only difference is this time its a free market for the tokens it takes to do so. I definitely think Splinterlands has a long future ahead of it, so I guess we are officially along for the ride. See you all 4/4!