President Zelensky has ordered his army to hold the city at all costs leading to a steady stream of barely trained/untrained units being sent to hold the city.
Over the course of the last two weeks Russian forces (Wagner PMC) have made several major advances in the battle for Bakhmut (Artemivsk). They have also managed to physically cut most of the roads supplying the garrison of Ukrainian troops in the city. The only road left to supply the Ukrainian defenders is a country road that is now under fire control of Russian artillery.
The Wagner troops are attacking the city from several directions.
According to Rybar, the Russian military analysis channel on Telegram which is widely cited by Western media, it is in the north of Bakhmut that “Wagnerites” have made the most progress. In the last two weeks they have captured Krasna Gora, Paraskoviyivka, Berkhovka. In recent days they have captured the villages of Yagodne. and Dubovo-Vasilevka. A source from RIA Novosti has confirmed that the micro district of Stupki has been taken and that assault detachments have also entered IIyinovka.
In response to these Russian advances in northern Bakhmut a dam was blown up Ukrainian soldiers to slow down the advance of the Wagner units.
Meanwhile, the pro-Ukrainian LIVE UA map shows Russian forces fighting in the middle of Bakhmut city while also expanding the extent of the city’s encirclement.
In the south “Wagnerites” have entered the Bakhmut district of Samolet and cut off several supply routes. They are also fighting for control of Krasnoe (Ivanivske).
The position of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut becomes more perilous by the day. President Zelensky has ordered his army to hold the city at all costs leading to a steady stream of barely trained/untrained units being sent to hold the city. Several media reports estimate that the lifespan of fresh untrained troops sent to fight in the city is a mere four hours.
It is quite clear from both Russian and Western sources that Zelenksy's strategy of throwing unit after unit into the ‘meat grinder’ that is Bakhmut is leading to very heavy losses for the Ukrainian army and depleting its reserves for any future offensive this spring.
This situation is leading many Western analysts to admit that Kiev should withdraw its troops from the beleaguered city to a new defence line west of the city. A recent article by the Times said;
Ukrainian and Western officials, realizing that the armed forces of Ukraine may be completely surrounded and left without supply lines, recently admitted that a withdrawal of troops from the city could occur.
The article did note that a retreat for Ukrainian troops would not be easy as it would probably result in heavy losses.
Sadly, it appears that the Ukrainian army has an acute shortage of field hospitals and medical personnel in this area of combat operations leading to a high mortality for many wounded men.
It now appears inevitable that the Ukrainian army will retreat from Bakhmut and that the main task of its units still in the city is to buy time while new defensive lines are prepared west of the city.
The military intelligence site SouthFront.org has observed that once Bakhmut is taken then;
they will inevitably pose a threat to Seversk and Slavyansk, the last Ukrainian strongholds remaining in the Donbass.
If Russian forces take Bakhmut in the next month it will deliver a heavy blow to the morale of the Ukrainian army which is planning to hold a spring offensive this year. Worse still, the loss of Bakhmut will rupture a huge hole in the defensive line which runs from Seversk down to Donetsk and threaten the collapse of the whole front.