Early last year, I wrote two posts about money. A lot has changed since then. This is not a "gold bug" metals-obsessed rant, but I want to revisit those posts before I delve into wider topics. What global turmoil might 2026 bring? What might be safe refuges in a volatile market? How should we respond to matters outside our control? Are you ready to ride along on another rambling roller coaster as I try to organize my thoughts by writing them out?
One Year Later...
In Honest Money vs. Government Money, I sketched a history of the dollar from its origin as a defined weight of silver to the modern pure fiat system, and how this transition has led to economic instability and the "wealth gap." Then, in A Penny for Your Thoughts? I looked at how the devaluation of the dollar led to the deprecation of the cent coin as a consequence of inflation.
In just the past year, the melt value of a silver dollar leapt from about $22 to nearly $73, well over triple the price then. In other words, using precious metal as the constant value, the dollar dropped about 70%. Of course, two data points do not make a complete economic analysis, but it does suggest a significant inflection point has been crossed. What I find more intriguing is the gold to silver ratio. Silver has massively outperformed gold despite both metals skyrocketing in price. This could also signal a major economic upheaval may be on the horizon.
As silver approaches $100/oz t (Troy Ounce), and gold approaches $5,000/oz t, it's hard to predict what will happen next. If it were crypto, we might assume there's a pump-and-dump in the works, but that seems unlikely here. Individuals, financial institutions, and governments are all seeking to expand reserves, and there are constant rumors that paper holdings exceed physical supply, to say nothing of futures.
Tech Stocks and Beyond
In more mainstream news, we also saw an explosion in the tech industry over the last year. Generative artificial intelligence is the latest boom, or perhaps more likely, the new edition of the dot-com bubble from 30 years ago. In any case, the "magnificent seven" of Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, and Meta (Facebook) have led the market. Demand for memory and processor chips has driven up the cost of consumer electronics and their components.
In uncertain times, what are good investments? I'm not a financial advisor or industry expert, so take everything I say with a grain of salt, but I'm going to give my opinions anyway. Commodities are a traditional refuge from financial collapse. In the US, I suggest having at least some "junk silver" 90% dimes, quarters, and dollars from 1964 and earlier. Outside the US, consider other bullion coins.
In stocks, I would suggest exploring ancillary industries. I live in the Inland Northwest near Spokane, Washington, not far from the Silver Valley of Idaho. When metals are hot, mining stocks might be a good buy. Consider also Caterpillar and other companies supporting the production of not just precious metals, but the other materials needed for computer chips, electric vehicles, and energy. Oil is low now, so it may be a good opportunity to buy into petroleum corporations.
Choosing stocks which offer dividends to their holders can be a low-risk option. ETFs and index funds such as the S&P 500 also take guesswork out of the picture, and there's no need to pretend investing needs to be flashy. There are plenty of gurus offering set-it-and-forget-it portfolios as well. Caveat emptor.
More risky would be construction investment. If my hunches are right, we may be approaching another real estate collapse in commercial and residential alike. However, government subsidies could mean opportunity to benefit yourself at taxpayer expense if government policies continue to prop up these sectors of the economy.
Even more cynical opportunity might be found in the military-industrial complex. The Russo-Ukraine war is making a very few people very rich, and you could join them. If Trump's stupidity is about to detonate war with Iran, NATO. and/or China, you could get in now and earn some blood money from that, too.
Setting aside my moral arguments against buying treasury notes which must be repaid with future taxation or inflation, government bonds and securities of any kind are just bad mathematically compared to almost any other alternatives when rates are low and inflation pressure is high. Just... no. More on that later.
Money Matters
Even before COVID (or more accurately government responses to it) disrupted the global economy, there were signs of deeper systemic problems. The US treasuries were showing an inverted yield curve. The Jeddah Tower suggested another example of the skyscraper curse could arrive. Of course, massive disruptions in trade and unprecedented inflation of the money supply caused a disruption, but we're back on track now, with the Jeddah Tower planned to set records near the end of this year and the yield curve still struggling to un-invert.
One of the odd deviations from past economic cycles was the rising price of both metals and stocks in 2025, which usually show an inverse price action, with one rising as the other falls ina recessionary cycle. Of course, if my pessimistic view of inflation is accurate, stocks and metals are seen as relatively safe refuges as the dollar collapses. This would also explain the latest housing bubble. But I admit this is speculation on my part.
I should note, however, that we just witnessed the Iranian Rial collapse as the latest example of fiat money succumbing to international conflict and domestic inflationary practices.
The US Dollar is still the biggest monetary system, but the US Treasury Department was already having some trouble selling its securities at current low interest rates before Denmark, China, and other countries started aggressively selling their holdings. Will the US dollar collapse next? I wouldn't put high odds on it, but it's not impossible, either. In any case, avoid these financial instruments like the plague.
War and More
Despite campaign promises to end it, the Russo-Ukraine war is still ongoing. Israel continues its war against Palestinians. Trump's tariff schemes and trade wars threaten to escalate into hot wars, especially with his absurd ambition to annex Greenland, which caused a significant stock market drop. The US Navy is also making maneuvers which could dramatically escalate tension with Iran, and there's no telling when China will return to center stage.
The question is not how we restore peace and stability. That is outside our sphere of control. Worse still, many believe wars somehow bring prosperity, but in reality, this could result in widespread destruction and suffering even if everything stays conventional and doesn't go nuclear.
How we can hedge against this uncertainty and risk to emerge unscathed, perhaps better off than before, regardless of what happens? How can we ensure fear doesn't drive us to make bad decisions when there's always a chance cooler heads will prevail? My pessimistic assessment doesn't mean gloom and doom are guaranteed, after all. Here' I ask for your input. Comment below with your optimistic and pessimistic takes, your strategies, and your goals.
Crypto
Last, but not least, if you're here on HIVE, you know crypto is weird right now. Bitcoin seems to be stagnating, and altcoins are in a slump, but these are still viable speculative ventures. I wouldn't call them investments, though. There's a lot more risk than in traditional stocks and commodities.
As always, we have grifters trying to profit off suckers with rug-pulls, pump-and-dump schemes, and other attempts to separate you from your wealth. We're in a new frontier. Beware of bandits.
I'm still writing on Hive because I think this is more than just another shitcoin. Crypto opportunities abound if you're willing to take some risks or invest in projects you believe have real fundamental value propositions.
In Closing
There's an apocryphal story of a Chinese curse which translates to, "May you live in interesting times." However, another man who lived in interesting times offers a gleam of light in the darkness.
'I wish it need not have happened in my time,' said Frodo.
'So do I,' said Gandalf, 'and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.'
—J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
One of the reasons the Peter Jackson film trilogy worked so well was its incorporation of Tolkien's deeper philosophy in the quiet moments.
We can try to plan around the chaos and evil of this world, protect what we earn, invest wisely, and build a better tomorrow for future generations. We still must decide what to do with the time that is given to us, There are other forces at work in this world besides the will of evil. An encouraging thought indeed, especially from someone who survived two world wars and the Great Depression in between.
If you're not on Hive yet, I invite you to join through InLeo or PeakD. If you use either of my referral links, I'll even try to delegate some Hive Power to help you get started.