NFL Playoff and Super Bowl Predictions (2020/2021 Season)

Hi Sports Fans,

In 2019, I made a Super Bowl prediction midway through the season. I predicted The New England Patriots would play the San Francisco 49ers. I was half-right, the San Francisco 49ers made it to the Super Bowl but the Kansas City Chiefs made it instead of the New England Patriots. I predicted the 49ers would win the Super Bowl but they lost.

For the 2020/2021 season, I decided to make my predictions a little later in the season as well as a little broader. In this post, I am predicting the winners of all the playoff games. Therefore, if I get the winners wrong in the Wild Card Round (i.e. first round of the playoffs), many of my other predictions will also be wrong as some or all of these games will not happen.

Playoff Structure

Source: Sporting News

This season there are 14 playoff teams (i.e. 7 AFC and 7 NFC teams). There are normally 12 playoff teams. This season, the NFL has permitted an extra Wild Card team (i.e. team that did not win their division) to enter the playoffs. Both the AFC and NFC have four divisions consisting of 4 teams (total of 32 teams). The teams that win these divisions automatically qualify for the playoffs. These teams are seeded 1 to 4 based on regular season record and tiebreaker rules. The next 3 teams with the best regular season records also qualify for the playoffs. These teams are seeded 5 to 7 based on regular season record and tiebreaker rules. The division winners with the best regular season records from both the AFC and NFC are given a first round playoff bye and home field for the remaining playoff games (excludes Super Bowl, which is played at a predetermined venue). The remaining 3 division winners will play at home in the Wild Card Round. The second seeded team plays the seventh seeded team. The third seeded team plays the sixth seeded team. The fourth seeded team plays the fifth seeded team. The winning team with the highest seed will play at home in the Division Round (i.e. second round). The winning team with the lowest seed will play away to the first seeded team.

AFC Teams

The AFC playoff teams with regular season win-loss records are as follows:

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
6. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

NFC Teams

The NFC playoff teams with regular season win-loss records are as follows:

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
4. Washington Football Team (7-9)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
7. Chicago Bears (8-8)

My Wild Card Round predictions

The NFL has had a tough year bringing in revenue because of the Covid-19 restrictions. Games have either had minimal or no fans attending games. Instead, the NFL needs to draw fans to their TV sets. This year’s NFL playoffs will need to be exciting. This excitement will need to begin with the Wild Card Round. I am predicting the Wild Card Round will have many upsets.

In the AFC, I am predicting:

• the Indianapolis Colts to win at the Buffalo Bills
• the Cleveland Browns to win at the Pittsburgh Steelers
• the Tennessee Titans to win at home against the Baltimore Ravens

I am predicting the Colts to beat the Bills. The Bills are on a hot streak of 6 wins in a row and most of those wins were comfortable. Another win is what most people expect. The Colts are a good all-round team that I believe will defeat an inexperienced Bills team.

I am predicting the Browns to beat the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns are one of biggest underdogs of the playoffs. The team have not been to the playoffs in almost 20 years. The Pittsburgh Steelers are playoff regulars with plenty of experience. The Cleveland Browns have a lot to prove and will do so with a win in Pittsburgh.

I am predicting the Titans to beat the Ravens. This game could go either way. The Titans have performed well against the Ravens in the previous two games. The Ravens have struggled with playoff games. Titans’ running back Derrick Henry performs well against the Ravens. However, the Ravens are a very strong team and are definitely due a win against the Titans, it could be this game.

In the NFC, I am predicting:

• the Chicago Bears to win at the New Orleans Saints
• the LA Rams to win at the Seattle Seahawks
• the Washington Football Team to win at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am predicting the Bears to beat the Saints. The New Orleans Saints are again one of the best teams in the NFL. This season, their defence has also greatly improved, which makes them even more dangerous. However, the playoffs have not been kind to the Saints. Three seasons in a row, the Saints have lost games they were expected to win. The Saints are by far the superior team to the merely 8-8 Bears but I expect the Bears to pull-off the shock win.

I am predicting the Rams to beat the Seahawks. This game will be the battle between a superb offence (Seahawks) and a superb defence (Rams). Both teams play in the NFC West Division. They have played each other twice and have one win each. This should be a very close game. I expect the Rams will just sneak the victory.

I am predicting the Football Team to beat the Buccaneers. The Washington Football Team are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record. They come from the weakest Division in the league. Their season looked over when they lost 7 of their first 9 games of the season (i.e. 2-7 record). Their head coach battled cancer during the season and their quarterback missed much of the season through injury. The Football Team are clear underdogs in these playoffs. The Buccaneers have legendary quarterback Tom Brady and a much-improved team from previous seasons. This will be a close game.

Divisional Round Predictions

After many surprises in the Wild Card Round, I would expect many people to be tuning into the Divisional Round. The teams with the bye will be feeling fresh but the winners from the Wild Card Round will have momentum. Will the surprise results continue or will the favourites begin to dominate?

In the AFC, I am predicting:

• the Kansas City Chiefs to win at home against the Indianapolis Colts
• the Cleveland Browns to win at the Tennessee Titans

I am predicting the Chiefs to beat the Colts. The Chiefs had a great year. They are the defending Super Bowl champions. They will also be well rested after the bye week and relaxed final week of the season. They will demonstrate their dominance by easily defeating the Colts. I expect the Chiefs’ to put their offensive prowess on display as well as put on a strong performance by their defence. The Chiefs will look like a Super Bowl team.

I am predicting the Browns to beat the Titans. I believe the underdogs will prevail against an injury weakened Titans team. The game should be close. It may come down to the final drive. Fans will be on the edge of their sofas.

In the NFC, I am predicting:

• the Green Bay Packers to win at home against the Chicago Bears
• the Washington Football Team to win at home against the LA Rams

I am predicting the Packers to beat the Bears. The Green Bay Packers have had a strong season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers may have had the best season of his career. I would expect him to win season MVP. I am expecting Aaron Rodgers to put his skills on display against the Bears. The Packers have already beaten the Bears twice this season. Another win would be expected and I think these expectations will be correct with this game. This should be a comfortable win for the Packers.

I am predicting the Football Team to beat the Rams. This will be a battle between two very good defences. I expect this game to be close and low scoring. Home field advantage will work in favour of the Football Team. The weather and travel will be just enough to tilt the game in the Football Teams’ favour.

Conference Championship Predictions

I predict both Conference Championships will pit a strong favourite against an underdog. In one case, I expect the favourite to prevail and in the other case, I predict the underdog to prevail. This would then set up a Super Bowl with another strong favourite versus underdog matchup.

For the Conference Championship games, I am predicting:

• the Kansas City Chiefs to win at home against the Cleveland Browns
• the Washington Football Team to win at the Green Bay Packers

The Chiefs would be the strong favourite to beat the Browns. I expect the Chiefs to take an early lead and pull away a little. However, I am predicting that the Browns will keep coming back to prevent the Chiefs’ from pulling too far ahead. I am guessing the Browns will reduce the deficit to just one score but time will run out on them and the Chiefs will win.

In the other game, the Packers will be the strong favourite to win. Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Football Team’s quarterback Alex Smith were selected in the same draft year. Alex Smith was selected before Aaron Rodgers but Aaron Rodgers is having by far the better career. On two different teams, Alex Smith has been replaced at quarterback by younger drafted quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers has been NFL MVP twice as well as Super Bowl MVP. This time round, Alex Smith will have the better game. The Football Team defence will prevent the Packers from pulling ahead. Alex Smith may lead the team to a touchdown on the final drive to win the game.

Super Bowl Prediction

I am predicting the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Washington Football Team in the Super Bowl. The two teams wear similar colours. The Chiefs wear red and yellow. The Football Team wear burgundy and yellow. Both teams are linked to Native American references. The Chiefs formerly had a Native American mascot, which they changed to K.C. Wolf in 1989. The name ‘Chiefs’ is still associated with Native American culture by many people. The Washington Football Team changed their team name from ‘Redskins’ in 2020. The team were under pressure as many claimed the name, ‘Redskins’ had racist connotations. The Chief have received similar but less severe criticism. Alex Smith played for the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes (i.e. Chiefs current starting quarterback) was the Chiefs rookie quarterback. This would be the first time Alex Smith’s and Patrick Mahomes’ teams would be playing each other.

The Chiefs would be the overwhelming favourites. They have won twice as many regular season games as the Football Team (14 vs. 7). The Football Team would be the first Super Bowl Team with a regular season losing record. If the Chiefs won, they would be the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005. The Football team have not a won a Super Bowl since 1992. However, the Football Team have won 3 of 5 Super Bowls and the Chiefs have won only 2 of 3. The last time the Football Team lost a Super Bowl was 1984 (the Year Alex Smith was born) in Tampa, Florida (location of Super Bowl 55). Will the Football Team return to Tampa to lose again?

For the Super Bowl, I am predicting the Washington Football Team to win against the Kansas City Chiefs.

I am predicting the Football Team to win the Super Bowl because I believe people need to see the underdog come out on top. The Ron Rivera (Head Coach) cancer story is inspiring and so is the Alex Smith injury recovery story. Washington DC is in turmoil with the fallout from the Presidential election and Covid-19. An underdog Super Bowl win would lift the city and the country.

The Football Team are also the first NFL team to hire an African American Team President (New York Times). Alongside the name change, the Football Team have changed their image to align with a new progressive left wing Government.

I predict it will be a close and surprisingly low scoring Super Bowl. The Football Team’s defence will rise to the occasion with constant pressure on Patrick Mahomes. I expect to see several forced turnovers. I do not expect Alex Smith to be spectacular but I believe he will manage the offense well and commit very few mistakes. I am predicting rookie Defensive Lineman Chase Young will win Super Bowl MVP. In his speech, I expect he will mention the teams’ transformation and something about Black Lives Matter.

Conclusion

This post is intended as a bit of fun. The probability that all my predictions will be correct is approximately 1/8192 (1/2¹³). The probability that just my Super Bowl prediction is correct is approximately 1/98 (49 possible Super Bowl combinations × 2 for predicting the winner). I strongly recommend not using my predictions to make any bets.

I believe entertainment is as much as an important element of the NFL as competitive sport; see my post 'Super Bowl – Planned Entertainment for Dollars' for a more detail discussion. In the year of Covid-19, when profits and revenue are significantly reduced. Entertainment is likely to be the greater priority. NFL also expresses or supports political opinion and trends. This was apparent with the NFL’s support for Black Lives Matter. The changes made by the Washington Football Team leads me to believe the team will be given a push this season. This push could lead to a Super Bowl win for them.

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