Hi Everyone,
Background Picture Source: ABC News
After 2 years of Covid-19, the world (i.e. mainstream media and western politicians) have switched attention, almost entirely, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I do not believe there has been any point in human history when the world has been entirely at peace. Most of these wars receive very little attention. Therefore, this war must be different in some way or has vastly broader implications. In this post, I want to run through briefly some of the possible reasons, implications, and possible outcomes (mostly intermediate) of this war. I will also discuss some of the actions that have been taken by Russia, Ukraine, and NATO and its allies as well as what these actions might imply.
Despite the constant media coverage of this war, it is very difficult to gain a clear picture of events as well as the true motivations that led to them. Western mainstream media companies are pumping out anti-Russian propaganda. Social media are blocking and censoring alternative views on the war (e.g. neutral or pro-Russian propaganda). Governments have banned Russian media such as RT and Sputnik media companies. The media’s approach to this war is very similar to their approach to Covid-19 and vaccines in particular. Therefore, to get a better picture of events, we need to do our research, which is challenging considering the restrictions on information.
There is more than one type of war
A military war is just one type of war. There are many types of war. Below are the types of war that I believe are occurring in this Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Map of Invasion (05/03/2022)
Source: The Duran
Note: Block red areas are occupied by Russia forces and striped red areas show where fighting is occurring.
Map of Invasion: Donbas Cauldron (08/03/2022)
Source: Saker
Note: Block green areas are occupied by Russia forces and orange stripped areas show where fighting is occurring. The blue area supposedly represents Ukraine forces. The map highlights how they have been surrounded by Russian forces.
Types of war
- Military
- Economic
- Political
- Information
- Social
Military
The military war should be considered undisputed. However, there is disagreement regarding terminology (i.e. invasion vs. special operation). By any reasonable definition, an invasion is taking place. Therefore, in this post, I refer to it as an invasion . I will discuss various aspects of the military invasion in detail later in the post.
Economics
The economic war is also undisputed. This war is between Russia and most of the world. Strong sanctions have been applied to Russia, Russian businesses, and individuals. Some of these sanctions are akin to theft and involved the taking of assets and property of people who have committed no proven offence or have proven influence on political decision-making in Russia (not all wealthy Russian are oligarchs). Many companies have pulled out from Russia. This could greatly disrupt Russian markets and potentially cause mass unemployment.
Companies withdrawing from Russia
Source: AA
Note: Many more companies have joined this list since it was published
Russia intends to strike back against countries that have sanctioned them. They have put together a list of 43 countries that may face retaliation.
Countries Russia threatens to sanction
Source: World Nation News
Political
The political war has involved countries working together to attack Russian interests. This involves coordinating operations to support Ukraine forces and support each other to create resilience to sanctions against Russia. Russia have worked on their own alliances such as BRICS (alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). These countries may help Russia counter some of the economic damaged caused particularly from companies withdrawing from Russia.
Information
The information war has been between the western media and Russian media. For most English speaking countries, the Western media has been very successful at controlling the narrative of the war. However, the quality of the information is very poor. Many images from Ukraine have been disproven and debunked within a few days or even a few hours. These included images from previous wars and even video game footage. Many of narratives are illogical and inconsistent. Currently, it appears that the media are winning over most of the public. This may not last.
Russia appear to have been less successful and appear to be only able to control the narrative for their own people. However, the Russian media could have a further reach than I know, as I am not able to access most of the news spread by their media. United Kingdom is actively blocking information coming out of Russia.
Social
I would argue that the social war has been the non-economic sanctions on Russia and its citizens. This involves banning Russian people from events such as the World Cup (soccer), Olympics, Eurovision, and International cat competitions. This also involves loss of services within the country as well as restrictions on movements in and out of the country. Russia do not seem well equipped to take any meaningful counteractions in a social war. However, their military war will have social implications on the citizens of Ukraine as well as Ukraine’s neighbours.
Why is the war in Ukraine receiving all the attention?
There are many possible reasons why mainstream media and Governments care so much about this war and want everyone else to care about it too. Below are some of those possible reasons.
- It is in Europe and on the doorstep of the western world
- It is a Russian invasion and not US or NATO invasion
- This war is illegal, immoral, and unprovoked
- This war has a higher chance of escalating into a global war
- Racism in media coverage and western politicians
- A distraction from other events occurring in the world
- An event that supports the implementation of the Great Reset
All of the above could be argued to some extent. However, the reasons that are being given the most attention by the media and western governments (e.g. illegal, immoral, and unprovoked war) are not likely to be the fundamental reasons. Reasons such as bias against Russian invasions (they want to emphasise that Russia is the enemy of the free world), distraction from other events such as vaccine agenda and legislation to restrict freedoms, and justify why the Great Reset is important to preventing such events occurring again. I will discuss all of these points later in the post.
It is worth discussing racism in the context of this war. Most wars occur in countries where the majority of the people are not white. They often occur in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. None of the wars that have occurred in these areas/continents has received anywhere close to the amount of attention the Russia-Ukraine war has received. Some wars, such as in Yemen, have received almost no mainstream media coverage at all. There has been no outrage by the mainstream media or western Governments over these wars. Is this because the mainstream media are racist? Maybe, they believe their viewers are racist. Maybe, the people funding the mainstream media are racist. There are many reasons why this war could be receiving so much attention but the argument that the mainstream media and Government are adopting a racist approach is strong. This is ironic, considering how much the mainstream media have been claiming to fight racism over the past few years.
Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
Most mainstream media companies are spreading the narrative that Russia’s intentions are purely malicious. They imply Russia wants to mass murder as many Ukrainians as possible. Take complete control of Ukraine and possibly threaten to attack neighbouring countries. In some reports, Putin and Russia are being compared to Hitler and Nazi Germany. It is highly unlikely that these are the true intentions of Russia based on the events that have and are currently transpiring. Below are a few possible reasons why Russia is invading Ukraine.
- Response to constant attacks on Donbas regions (predominantly pro-Russian)
- Fight extremism in Ukraine (e.g. Nazism)
- Response to NATOs encroachment into area
- Solve problem of Crimea
- Ukraine’s natural resources
- Covid-19 vaccine cover up (Sputnik V and AstraZeneca failures)
- Advance global agenda (Great Reset)
Response to constant attacks on Donbas regions
From the coverage I have seen from Russia, which is limited, it appears their arguments for the invasion (claimed to be a special operation) relate to the first reasons given above. Since 2014, about 14,000 people have been killed because of fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk (TASS). Many of these people are civilians and Russia citizens. Russian intervention appears a logical next step but to wage a full invasion of Ukraine is extremely aggressive. The fighting has been ongoing since 2014. The response based on this argument is slower than would be expected. Therefore, at best, could only be part of the reason.
Fight Extremism (Nazi element)
The fight against extremism (i.e. Nazism) argument appears an unlikely reason for a full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian National Guard has a Neo-Nazi element to it known as the Azov Regiment (Aljazeera). This group is relatively small (less than 1,000) and not representative of the broader Ukrainian military. However, what is a little concerning is that Ukrainian Oligarchs such as Ihor Kolomoyskyi fund this group. Ihor Kolomoyskyi has close ties to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Atlantic Council). Therefore, this is an unlikely reason to invade Ukraine but raises a few concerns regarding the character of the Ukrainian president.
Response to NATO (NATO expansion since 1997)
Source: National World
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) has expanded considerably since 1997. This expansion has been targeted towards Russia. Several NATO countries (Estonia and Latvia) border Russia. Prior to the expansion, there was a clear buffer between Russia and Germany. If Ukraine joined NATO, NATO would include yet another country on Russia’s border. Ukraine is considerably larger than the other NATO countries that border Russia. This expansion would logically be perceived as a threat to Russia. Russia would feel compelled to take some form of action to protect its security. However, would this warrant an invasion?
If we consider the problems around Crimea (rejoined Russia in 2014, supported by a referendum after annexation), the biggest, possibly, being the water shortages caused by Ukraine damming the North Crimean Canal (Bloomberg), the combined arguments made by Russia are plausible. However, these reasons could still be excuses to mask other intentions.
Ukraine’s Natural Resources
Ukraine is rich in natural resources. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury (Ukraine Invest). It would be a great benefit to Russia to access these resources. Ukraine is located next to one of its largest potential markets for these resources.
Russia’s Covid-19 vaccine disaster and rising excess deaths
Russia’s Covid-19 vaccination program was one of the first to commence in the world (Sputnik V). The vaccine that was developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology (Wikipedia) and financed by Sberbank (Sberbank). Sberbank is a strategic partner with the World Economic Forum {World Economic Forum).
Russia has very aggressively pushed their experimental Covid-19 vaccine. For example, In Moscow, service workers were coerced into taking the vaccine to save their jobs (Moscow Times). According to Edward Slavsquat, a journalist working and living in Russia, the Russian Government have taken many measures to force and manipulate its population to take their experimental vaccine. These measures have included preventing unjabbed people from entering universities, taking away people’s jobs if they are not doubled jabbed, and manipulating parents of children as young as 12 into getting their children jabbed. These measures have faced significant resistance (possibly as high as 50% of the population). This has hurt the popularity of the Government (Straight to the Point). Despite the Government’s aggressive push to vaccinate all of its people against Covid-19, Russia’s vaccination rate (54% as of 06/03/2022) is below most European countries and even below the world rate (63% as of 06/03/2022) (Our World in Data).
Excess Deaths in Russia
Source: Our World in Data
The number of excess deaths in Russia have been steadily increasing since the middle of 2020. The rollout of Sputnik V appears to have done nothing to prevent this rise; it may have even contributed to it. The vaccine program and the rising number of deaths could eventually lead to the downfall of the current regime. The war with Ukraine may serve as both a distraction as well as a morale booster when they win while meeting the first 4 objectives outlined earlier in this section of the post.
Great Reset
Russia is contributing to the World Economic Forum’s global agenda of implementing the Great Reset. As explained above, they are attempting to force vaccinate their population. They are trialling and soon to be implementing digital Identification and facial recognition in schools (TASS). They are starting the pilot stage of their CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) while planning to place further restrictions on cryptocurrencies (CoinDesk).
Wars are often used to advance global agendas. For example, the League of Nations was created as a direct response to the Great War and the United Nations and NATO (Soviet Union focused) were created as a direct response to World War 2. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could easily be used to expand existing global establishments or even create new ones.
Russia’s Approach to this war
There are many conflicting stories regarding how the war is progressing as well as Russia’s actions and motives. Below are a few key points, which I believe are most likely to be true.
- Russia’s military has invaded Ukraine
- Russia has control over the Ukrains’s skies; this was achieved very early in the war
- Russia have surround many of Ukraine’s cities with their military (East and South)
- Russia have used a combination of fighters from Luhansk, Donetsk, and their own military
- Russia appear to be using their older equipment
- Russia appear to be focusing their efforts in the East and South
- Russia frequently reopen negotiations with Ukraine representatives
- Russia have clearly stated what they want in order to end the invasion
- Russia are reaffirming relations with none sanctioning countries (e.g. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)
- Russia have placed their nuclear arsenal on high alert
Initially, it may have appeared that Russia was in a hurry to win this war (i.e. quick move into Kyiv to overthrow the Government). After about 2 weeks of war, it appears Russia is in no hurry. Their key move was to control the skies. With little threat of an aerial assault, positioning of troops, vehicles and artillery is significantly easier. Russia have also chosen to surround their enemy rather than heavily engage with them in populated areas. This move should save lives on both sides, especially civilian lives. The choice of utilising separatist fighters also contributes to saving Russian soldiers lives. The use of older equipment helps them preserve their better more modern equipment for a stronger enemy (i.e. NATO forces). Fighting in the east and south are in areas more populated by Russian and pro-Russian Ukrainian citizens. These are areas that are more likely to be friendly towards a temporary Russian occupation. The West of Ukraine has been left almost untouched. The people in the west are more pro-west and these areas pose less of a threat as they are further from Russian borders.
Russia have been open to negotiations with Ukraine since the invasion began. Representatives have met three times so far. However, progress to reaching an agreement appears to be minimal. Several times agreements have been reached regarding safe passage of civilians. However, fighting regularly breaks out; thus, putting these civilians in danger. It is unclear which side causes the breach each time.
Russia has been very clear what they want from Ukraine for their invasion to end. They have stated 4 condition.
- Ukraine will agree to sign a neutrality agreement that would bar it from entering NATO (and EU)
- Ukraine will recognize Crimea as Russian
- Ukraine will recognized the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent
- Ukraine will cease all military action.
Source: News Week
If the Ukrainian Government want to prevent Russia from taking over their country and overthrowing their Government, they will accept the offer made by Russia. Accepting this offer would also save thousands of lives on both sides. If Russia abide by these terms in the long-run, accepting this offer seems like the logical approach. If we believe the reasons that Russia have given for invading, they most likely will keep to the agreement. If there are other reasons for this invasion, they may go back on this agreement sometime in the near future. Not accepting these conditions, will extend the war until Ukraine’s inevitable defeat. Currently, it is clear that Ukraine find these conditions unacceptable. Russia will know this, which brings to question the sincerity of what they are offering, as they know it will be rejected.
What is Russia’s Desired Result?
We have some idea as to why Russia invaded and we are gaining a better understanding of how they are approaching this war. Therefore, we can formulate a few ideas as to how Russia might want this conflict to end.
- Existing Ukrainian Government to remain but for them to demilitarise and have a permanent agreement on neutrality (No NATO or EU)
- Take control of East and South Ukraine
- Replace existing Government with a Russian friendly Government
- Insert interim Government while new Government is democratically elected
- Takeover Ukraine and several surrounding countries to improve security
- Major invasion of Europe
If Russia only wants the conditions they set in their negotiations with Ukraine, we could conclude that Russia would accept the existing regime as long they remain neutral and pose no threat to Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. They would also prevent NATO from being a threat to Russia.
Russia may want further assurance of reduced threat from NATO. Therefore, they might desire to capture East and South Ukraine. This could split Ukraine into two countries (or more). Either East Ukraine would be under direct Russian control or under the control of a pro-Russian puppet leader. West Ukraine would form a new pro-western Government, where the leader would most likely be a puppet for the USA.
Russia may continue their military campaign to capture all of Ukraine. They would install an interim Government until they can insert a more permanent pro-Russian puppet Government. This would give Russia the biggest buffer from NATO. However, this strategy runs a higher risk of uprising from the Ukrainian people from the west who do not wish their country to be a vassal State of Russia. There is also a risk that a pro-Western Government could emerge in Ukraine again.
Instead of inserting a pro-Russian puppet Government, Russia could allow Ukraine to elect a new leader for themselves. If a pro-Russian candidate/party wins, Russia will have a temporary buffer from NATO as well as little resistance from the people of Ukraine. However, if a pro-western candidate/party wins, Russia will have the same problems it has now.
Russia may choose to continue their campaign beyond Ukraine. Moldova is a possible candidate for invasion. This would strength Russia’s position in respect to Europe, increase security based on the geographical location of Moldova, and avoid direct conflict with NATO. The biggest problem with this move is justification and credibility of their current narrative. If Russia invade Moldova, its reputation on the world stage would be ruined for a very long time.
If we assume that Russia’s arguments are false. A full-scale invasion of Europe is possible. If USA are unwilling to send significant support to Europe, the Russian military could be successful. If China joined the war in support of Russia, the chances of success would further increase. This would escalate into a world war. USA would eventually join and nuclear weapons could be used. I believe this is the least likely scenario given the consequences of such actions as well as Russia’s behaviour in the past. However, if Putin is replaced by someone more unhinged, this scenario becomes more likely.
Reasons for provoking Russia (NATO)
The invasion of Ukraine does not fall purely on Russia. NATO have provoked Russia through constant expansion, interference in Ukraine politics, and supplying of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military. The more important question is why would NATO want Russia to invade Ukraine? Below are a few possible reasons.
- Covid-19 vaccine distraction
- Create/reinforce Russia as villain
- Destabilise the world in preparation for the Great Reset
- Remove Putin from office
- Destroy Russia
- World War 3
- Blame Russia for the impending economic crash in the USA and Europe (relates to sanctions)
- Distraction from other events
- Losing its grip on Ukraine
Vaccine distraction
Most NATO countries have adopted a similar strategy to the Covid-19 vaccines as Russia. They have aggressively tried to coerce and manipulate people to be jabbed. People unwilling to participate in the experimental vaccination program have faced loss of job/s, restrictions on movement, and restrictions on activities. People who have protested against the approach to Covid-19 and vaccines have faced aggressive actions by Governments. For example, Canada declared a state of emergency when truckers protested against vaccine requirements. They had funds blocked, accounts frozen, were arrested or assaulted by police. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created a huge distraction from the resistance to Covid-19 and vaccine measures.
Another huge problem with the Covid-19 vaccines is that they are proving to be unsafe. Covid-19 vaccines are setting records for the most adverse reactions of any vaccines ever developed. These are only the short-run adverse reactions. The number of long-run problems are still unknown but we could be on the verge of a massive health crisis. Below are the number of vaccine related deaths reported on VAERS for each year since 1990. It looks like the number of deaths will be similar in 2022 as they were in 2021.
Number of reported vaccine deaths on VAERS
Source: OpenVaers
Make Russian the Villain
The establishment love to play two opposing sides off against each other. We see this in politics with two political party systems. We see this in ideology (e.g. left vs right, remain vs leave, pro-vax vs. anti-vaxx, etc.). With the Ukraine war, we see the world (as defined by western media) vs. Russia. The world are supposed to unite against Russian because they are the villains. Russia appear easy to villainise, they have just invaded another country. They are fighting Ukraine’s military but they are also killing civilians (intentionally or unintentionally). They had a bad reputation on human rights prior to this invasion. They suppress freedom of speech (e.g. banned protests) and freedom of expression (e.g. anti-gay laws). They have been considered the biggest threat to peace since the world wars. Hence, the creation of NATO in 1949.
With two years of bad Covid-19 policy, people are turning on their Governments. Western leaders such as Boris Johnson (United Kingdom), Joe Biden (USA), Justin Trudeau (Canada), Emmanuel Macron (France), Scott Morrison (Australia) have become very unpopular (approval ratings below 50% and falling). More people are seeing them as either totalitarian or inept leaders. This trend in low public opinion is likely to continue if their economies continue to fail and their health crises continue to worsen. They need a new enemy for the public to focus their attention on. Russia might be the perfect candidate.
Preparing for the Great Reset
The great reset requires the world to be in a terrible state of chaos because it is the proposed solution to this chaos (e.g. problem-reaction-solution). The World Economic Forum need the public to cry out and demand radical change. The Great Reset is the desired radical change that the global establishment believe best fulfils their needs. Responses to Covid-19 has caused significant damage to many countries in many different areas (e.g. economic, social, and health). However, this damage does not appear sufficient for a strong public desire for the Great Reset (often referred to as building back better in most countries). A major war with significant loss of life causes increased fear. The extreme sanctions placed on Russia by most of the western world cuts both ways. Costs of living for most sanctioning countries will explode. Potentially, this could force millions of people into poverty. Chaos levels will become significantly closer to levels desired for people around the world to demand radical change (see subsection on blaming Russia for the economic crash).
Remove Putin from office
Vladimir Putin often takes an opposite stance to western foreign policy or positions. Examples include Chechnya, Georgia, many times in the Middle East, and now Ukraine. Replacing Putin with a more agreeable Russian President could be seen as an advantage to the west. However, it is also possible he could be replaced with a President who is more aggressive to the west. I believe having Russia as the “enemy” to the west suits the global narrative better. It helps Governments push through authoritarian legislation in the name of national security. It helps global institutions deemed necessary to prevent Russia from expanding in terms of territory and influence.
In reality, Vladimir Putin is playing the same game as most other leaders in the world. He has similar approaches to many areas such as Covid-19, digital money, and digital IDs. His connections with the World Economic Forum tells us he is playing a role in the global agenda.
Destruction of Russia
Does the west want to destroy Russia? Baiting Russia into a war with Ukraine enables the west to justify extreme sanctions against them. It also opens the door to the media to cause strong public outrage against Russia. The media could direct this anger towards companies operating in Russia so that they would pull out. This massive economic and social attack could destroy Russia from the inside out. It could force the Russia people into severe poverty for generations (Consortium News).
World War 3
It is possible western Governments want to provoke Russia to start World War 3. The Great Reset and build back better agendas would require no further justification. This would also immediately support depopulations agendas. I strongly believe this is not the intention of western Governments, NATO or the World Economic Forum. A nuclear war could destroy everything. Controlling a world that is reduced to rubble offers very little to anyone. Steps taken by NATO indicate that direct conflict with Russia is being avoided. Russia do not appear interested in engaging with NATO military. My only main concern is the media and their push to convince the public that a no-fly zone over Ukraine is necessary. According to Reuters, about 74% of Americas support a no-fly zone over Ukraine. A no-fly zone would seriously escalate this war and greatly increase the chances of a world war.
Blame Russia for the impending economic crash in the USA and Europe (Relates to sanctions)
The economies of the USA and many European countries have been vulnerable for a long time. The responses (lockdowns and other restrictions) to Covid-19 revealed those vulnerabilities. To keep their economies stable, the governments of these countries spent a lot of money. They have paid people not to work, they have given businesses that they forced to close financial support, they have financed vaccines, they have financed medical equipment and facilities relating to the response. Most of the funds have come from, directly or indirectly, from newly created money. The public have yet to pay for this expenditure.
Increasing Government Expenditure is Nothing New
Source: The Economist
An excessive increase in money supply will put pressure on prices. We often do not see a significant increase in prices or there is a lag in the increase. This is because productivity increases as well; this increase mostly offsets the increase in demand from an increased money supply. There is more money but there are more goods. Demand and supply both increase. However, the Covid-19 crisis reduced productivity. Businesses closed down and supply chains were broken. The crisis also reduced demand for goods and services. Therefore, inflation did not occur immediately. When restrictions were removed, demand began to increase again. However, many businesses did not survive the restrictions (Government money was insufficient to replace actual activity). Supply chains did not fully recover. Inflation and shortages were becoming noticeable and could continue to worsen for several years.
The sanctions placed on Russia will significantly hurt the sanctioning countries (possibly more than Russia). These sanctions will greatly worsen all existing economic problems (i.e. shortages, inflation, and debt). The impact of the sanctions, sold to the public as a necessary response to Russia, will be blamed entirely for all the sanctioning countries economic problems.
Distraction for something else
This war is serving as a great distraction to the Covid-19 disaster. It may also serve as a great distraction to other events occurring in the world, which will receive no media coverage because of the events in Ukraine.
US are losing their grip on Ukraine
It is possible the west (USA in particular) are losing their grip on Ukraine. Ever since the events of 2014, the Ukraine Government and leadership have shifted favouritism from Russia to western countries (i.e. USA and European Union). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, prior to becoming president was a popular actor and comedian in Ukraine. Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who has supported Zelensky’s acting career as well as his political career, has connections with the US political establishment. Most notable connection is with the Biden family (Voltairenet). Zelensky has close ties to the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum), and he and his Government (Daily Expose) as well as other Ukrainian Governments since 2014 support actions that align with the plans currently being laid out as part of the Great Reset (World Economic Forum).
Despite the help Zelensky has been given through his connections and his banning of media that supports opposing views (European Federation of Journalists), his popularity has been falling since his election win in 2019. This fall in popularity is evident based on a KIIS survey conducted in 2020 and 2021 and supported by an article by Kyiv Post regarding his offshore deals as well as on the street interviews by NPR.
Trust in social institutions
Source: KIIS
Note: Survey does not include most of separatist held Donbas Region
The Ukranian people’s lack of trust extends beyond their president to other areas such as the media (both Ukrainian and Russia) as well as various types of law enforcement.
If we assume Zelensky is a puppet to Kolomoyskyi and the USA, low popularity could lead to the end of Zelensky’s presidency and result in a new president who is less easily controlled by the USA. Much of Zelensky’s initial popularity was largely based on him intending to improve relations with Russia and ending fighting with separatists in the Donbas region (Impakter). This has not been the case. Instead, relations have become worse.
Ukraine’s Response to Russia’s Invasion
The first two weeks of the Russian invasion does not appear to be going well for Ukraine. As discussed early, Russia has taken control of the airspace. They have surrounded many of the major cities and they have surrounded the majority of the Ukrainian military located in the east. Despite the military’s lack of success, Ukraine has fought back in other ways. Below are some of the actions they have taken.
- Arm their own citizens and provide information on how to make weapons
- Conscript men between ages of 18 and 60
- Release prisoners with combat experience and arming them
- Make appeals to the world for weapons
- Make appeals for No Fly Zone over Ukraine
Arming its citizens and forcing untrained men to fight in this war against Russia is a shocking and desperate move. These untrained civilians face certain defeat and most likely death. This puts civilians directly in danger causing significantly more of them to die. It appears the Ukrainian Government care very little for their people and care more about using civilian deaths as propaganda against Russia to gain more support from people in the west. Maybe, Zelensky believes that NATO will become directly involved if he can prove that Russia are targeting civilians. His other strategies have involved calls for more weapons and ammunition (indirect NATO involvement) and a no-fly zone (direct NATO involvement).
World Response
Ukraine are fighting a military campaign to defend itself against Russia’s invading forces. Most other countries are fighting a non-military war against Russia (economic, social, information, and political). Below are some of the actions the rest of world have taken against Russia.
- Wide ranging sanctions from around the world
- Theft of selected Russia citizens assets
- Banned from international events (e.g. Winter Paralympics, Eurovision)
- Provision of weapons to Ukraine
- Strong media propaganda (admire Ukraine leadership and villainise Russian leadership)
These actions are consistent with several of the possible reasons for NATO provoking this war with Russia. Read ‘Reasons for provoking Russia (NATO)’ for elaboration. If we assume the west did not intend to provoke Russia, we would look at their approach a little differently. Sanctions could be considered as a deterrent to an extended Russian invasion. It could be considered as a method of restricting further growth of the Russian military. Stealing Russian citizen’s assets and property could send a message that supporting an invasion should receive some form of punishment. The strong media propaganda could be just emphasizing western values such as standing up to bullies. I do not believe any of that to be true. However, all angles should at least be considered.
Western Governments’ and NATO’s Desired Result
What are NATO and western Governments desired result for this Russia-Ukraine war? Below are a few possibilities.
- Russia retreats and ends invasion
- Russia extends invasion to other countries
- Putin is replaced by a more amicable leader
- Putin replaced by a more aggressive leader
- Prolonged conventional but not nuclear war
- Prolonged cold but not hot war
If we believe NATO provoked Russia, the desired result is closely linked to the reasons for provoking Russia. If we do not believe NATO intentionally provoked Russia, our analysis of these results will differ. If the west are genuine about obtaining peace, Russia retreating and ending the invasion should be the desired outcome. However, this would involve negotiation rather than escalation. Western Governments have shown little effort to deescalate the situation or have genuinely attempted to address Russia’s claimed major concerns. Replacing Putin with a more amicable leader could end the war. However, the only peaceful way to do so would involve the Russian people removing him themselves. The propaganda campaign supports this theory. If Western Governments desire the other mentioned results (wars or more aggression), we could arguably conclude provocation of Russia was intentional.
My Views
I do not think a good outcome is possible at this point. Whatever the reasons might be, Russia’s aggressive is beyond reasonable. Vladimir Putin is not the deranged mass murdering dictator the mainstream media are attempting to portray him as but his current and past actions strongly indicate good intentions are not at the forefront of his thinking. In many of my posts, I have discussed power, and wealth and the types of people drawn to positions of power. Vladimir Putin has significant power and wealth and his priorities will revolve around maintaining that power, and wealth and even expanding it further. I would make that same argument about other world leaders.
I think it is unlikely Volodymyr Zelensky (i.e. his puppet master) will accept the conditions Russia is offering. At this point, accepting these conditions is the least bad outcome. I believe the more likely outcome is that Russia will capture the East, South, North, and finally Kyiv. The Ukrainian Government (what’s left of it) will temporarily move west. Russia will leave the west untouched but divide the country into two. They will control East Ukraine until they form their own Government. See maps below based on languages predominantly spoken in each part of Ukraine.
Languages in Ukraine
Source: New Cold War
Languages in Ukraine by Region
Source: KIIS Survey, 2003 cited by Digital Shadows
Note 1: Was unable to find newer maps.
Note 2: There is also a built in assumption that language influences people's views regarding Russia and the Western countries.
Outwardly, this outcome would be unacceptable to western Governments but there is little more they will do about it other than continue sanctions on Russia. These sanctions could persist for a long time and will be disastrous to most people around the world.
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