Earlier this evening the Champions League Quarter final draw took place and I saw this probability chart from OPTA. OPTA is a data driven statistic company used by various leagues in Europe for gathering information.
Using data to predict sporting outcomes as sport is definitely not a perfect science and there are too many variables that cannot be included. Sure in a perfect world without any external variables then predictions would be far easier as shock results do not happen that often. The problem is upsets do happen and why I do not like to see charts like this as every team has the same chances as the others at this stage even if certain teams are slightly stringer on paper.
Arsenal via this probability chart are confirmed favorites, but between them and the title is 5 matches of football. The quarter final and semi final are contested over 2 legs with the final being only one match. Predicting a winner now is impossible to predict as what the stats are not including are injuries to key players and red cards. The chances of injuries is high mainly for where the teams are i the season with it coming to it's conclusion with a few months left.
When we look at a team like Arsenal they are currently ahead in the Premier League even though they have been struggling of late and are most definitely feeling the pressure of having the favorite tag. Top sides find a way to win and Arsenal have to still prove they have that type of mentality which they have not shown over the last few seasons. Who knows maybe they have learned how to cope with pressure and win the Premier and Champions League this year or end up with nothing. Personally I do not think they can win both and one title will fall by the wayside and this will be interesting if they can prove myself wrong. I think the club and fans would favor winning the Premier League over winning the Champions League title right now if they were guaranteed one title.
The business end of the season with 11 games (Arsenal 10) in the Premier League still to be played with one deciding match between Manchester City and Arsenal still to be played. This is the season right here as it is literally a 6 point swing and whoever wins this match should win the league. Nothing is ever set in stone and statistics and data cannot take into account the fight of the other teams who are battling their own demons of relegation.
Just over one week ago we saw bottom of the league Wolverhampton Wanderers (Wolves) draw with leaders Arsenal so it shows there are no easy games. I am not sure what OPTA's percentage would have given for an Arsenal win, but guaranteed the result did not match their data predictions.
This is why when it comes to knockout sport on the day any team can win especially when there are external influences like injuries and referee decisions. The mentality and mind set of the players is also something that plays a very big role and how the back room staff have prepared each and every player. Nothing is ever guaranteed as sport is not played on paper with every result not going according to plan. There are going to be upsets and twists from now until the end of the season and why we all like to watch sport due to it being unpredictable. This is the reason why I never bet on sporting outcomes as that is gambling.