Welcome back to Hive FPL for GW11 of the 25/26 season.
There are some truly epic games taking part in the Premier League this week and I'm in a hurry to get this post out before heading off to watch the Spurs United game at the pub where I'll either be able to toast our success or drown my sorrows in equal measure.
This of course is the last week before yet another international break (booo) but I'll be taking advantage of that week off to get the GW8-11 rewards out to our community so look out for the Hive hitting your wallet soon.
The rejected come back to haunt managers
Game week 10 saw quite a few managers get burned by the return to form of a couple of players whose popularity has waned over the last few rounds.
Mo Salah has now scored 2 in 2 despite his net transfers continuing to fall for the 6th successive week. The difficultly if he does really start to hit his straps will be finding a way to get him back into your team. That is likely to either cost you a wildcard, and not many managers have that left (only 17 of the top 50 sides in Hive FPL) or 3 or 4 transfers minimum.
Of course with AFCON fast approaching perhaps it's best to hold off making any sacrifices to bring in Salah or any other player who will be missing over the Xmas/New Year period even if Liverpool's fixture list from GW12 is looking very appealing.
Joao Pedro also got himself back on the scoresheet in GW11 and to be honest, should have had a hattrick at Spurs on Saturday. The Brazilian finished with an xG of 1.89 despite being dumped by 1.5million fantasy managers! That included 13 of the top 50 Hive FPL teams who preferred to bring in the likes of Mateta and Thiago with the former at least scoring.
With Chelsea playing bottom placed Wolves this weekend it's no surprise to see managers flocking back to the former Brighton forward. At the time of writing, he's the 5th most popular transfer in for GW12.
Double and blank gameweek now unlikely
There had been a chance of a double game week in GW16 followed by a blank for a couple of teams in GW17, a scenario that always allows the well prepared FPL managers to take advantage.
However, due to some sensible scheduling of the Carabao Cup Quarter Finals and in particular Palace's game against Arsenal, that is no longer a possibility.
As things stand managers won't need to worry about blank/double gameweeks until GW31 when the Carabao Cup Final takes place unless of course matches are subject to postponement due to force majeure.
That does of course raise the question of what to do with your first free hit chip?
When to free hit?
This is still a pressing question for most FPL teams. Within the Hive FPL only 6 of our top 50 have used their free hit meaning that 88% of teams have between now and GW19 (when the chips reset) to decide on when to use it.
Given that GW16 sees the introduction of 4 additional free transfers to account for the start of AFCON, it's unlikely that managers will want to use it then. So outside of this weekend, that leaves 7 weeks in which to play it.
One option would be to deploy it during a round when the popular picks have tougher games. For example, GW12 sees City travel to Newcastle in a game that could see Haaland's popularity as captain called into question. It's also the North London derby with popular Arsenal and Spurs players kicking lumps out of each other.
Meanwhile, in the same gameweek, Liverpool host Forest, United play at home to Everton, Bournemouth host West Ham while Chelsea go to Burnley and Palace to Wolves. All in all, plenty of options if you fancy moving away from 2 or 3 of your premium players for the week.
Alternatively, you could target GW14 and load up with players from the top clubs. Arsenal host Brentford, Liverpool are at home to Sunderland, Bournemouth are at home to Everton while City go to Fulham. Games that the current top 4 would all be heavy favorites to win by a margin.
Finally, there is the option to keep it up your sleeve for a rainy day. With the number of fixtures growing and the real potential for injury problems and suspensions to hamper your squad then having your free hit as a get out of jail free card (at least for a week) is not a bad shout.
Suspension wise, there are a whole host of Premier League players sat on 3 yellows at the moment and 2 further bookings between now and GW19 would see them pick up a 1 match ban.
Popular FPL picks who could soon be treading that tightrope include
- Calafiori, Arsenal
- Senesi, Bournemouth
- Thiago, Brentford
- Munoz, Crystal Palace
- Grealish Everton
- Xhaka, Sunderland
- Kudus, Spus
Division 1
GW10 Results
GW11 Fixtures
Division 2
GW10 Results
GW11 Fixtures
GW11 Player Picks and Tips
As noted in our preview blog, GW11 pits several sides of relatively equal strength against each other suggesting that finding an advantage this weekend is going to be tough.
Here are our suggestions on how where to look...
Wolves an endangered species
Last year it was Southampton, the year before that Burnley. Every season by about this time of the year, there is 1 club that you look at and think I want some fantasy players up against you guys every game week!
This year that club appears to be Wolves, the only side in England's top 6 tiers of football (it might be more but I really can't be bothered to look that far down!) who haven't won a league game yet that season. That's right, even Chippenham Town bottom of the National League South have managed a victory this season - a free factoid to share at the pub later!
Understandably then they've just sacked their manager. Less comprehensible is why they extended his contract a couple of months earlier!
Now the question is who is going to replace him? For a side suffering defeat after defeat you'd have thought the board would have had a contingency plan or 2 up their sleeves for some time but that doesn't appear to be the case.
Former manager Gary O'Neil was in talks to return but then pulled out at the last minute. Wolves turned their attention to former Luton boss and Wolves player, Rob Edwards who only took over as manager of Middlesborough in June. With 'Boro sitting 3rd in the league and hoping to get themselves back into the top flight they've understandably told Wolves where to shove it.
The term omnishambles springs to mind
And it's now a great opportunity for FPL managers to take advantage of.
Chelsea, their opponents in GW11, are not exactly a banker for stable performances at the moment but surely they have too much quality for this rudderless Wolves team to cope with.
Joao Pedro (as noted above) returned to goal scoring form last week.
Enzo Fernandes, particularly while the likes of Cole Palmer and Liam Delap are unavailable, continues to play in a far more advanced positions than he has at any other stage of his Chelsea career and so is probably a good bet for this one particularly at £6.7mil
You could even look at Chelsea defenders given Wolves struggles up front. They've scored just once away from home this season so Chalobah is a decent bet both for this match and an away trip to Burnley after the international break.
2 tough nuts to crack
I would not bank on Sunderland vs Arsenal being a Premier League classic but it's certainly a place to go if you're looking for defensive points.
Despite Arsenal's embarrassment of riches in defensive positions, we've so far not seen a huge amount of rotation. Hincapie came in at left-back for their midweek Champions League game and Ben White got 20mins off the bench but otherwise Arteta seems keen to keep going with an established back 4 that has not conceded a goal in any competition since September!
Sunderland have been impressive. Strong in the middle of the park, solid at the back and very good at converting the chances that they do get. However, whether they can get past this Arsenal backline on passion (it'll certainly be loud at the Stadium of Light) and work ethic remains to be seen.
Of course at the other end, Arsenal are now without Gykores, Odegaard, Martinelli, Havertz, Madueke and Jesus (who apparently still plays for them). There is still plenty of quality in the attacking third but they will be up against a well drilled Sunderland side.
Arsenal average positions vs Slavia Prague. Rice (41) and Merino (23) are likely to be required to take up advanced positions again against Sunderland
Arsenal's injury list may also provide FPL managers with the opportunity to bring in players playing out of position. Merino has started as an emergency centre forward multiple times and may do so again in GW11. Declan Rice is also likely to be given license to get further forward while his corner taking continues to prove a source of reliable points for any manager who already has him in their squad.
West Ham - false dawn or start of a bounce?
The Hammers managed an impressive 3-1 victory over Newcastle last time out representing their first win under new boss Nuno.
The former Wolves and Forest manager had done a fair bit of experimentation in his opening few games in charge. Inverting full-backs, playing Paqueta as a striker, etc etc to little effect (they lost all 3 matches in October). However, the side he put out against Newcastle was much more what you'd expect from a Nuno team. 4-3-3, happy to give the opposition the ball and spring out on the counter attack, and it worked!
We'll have to wait and see whether Scott Parker's Burnley side fall into the same trap. I imagine they'll come with a far more defensive mindset given their struggles away from home and a general desire not to lose this match at any costs!
However, if Nuno can get it right in East London as he did at Wolves and Forest (look how it's going for those 2 sides since he left) then there is definitely some value to be found in West Ham players.
The obvious pick is Jarrod Bowen. In some ways it's disappointing that he's been listed as a forward but actually given that there seem to be less viable options in that position in this year's FPL than there were last year, it might end up be a blessing.
After all, Bowen is ranked as the 4th best forward on the ICT and in fact the best on the creativity rating, showing his ability to both score and create goals. As an FPL manager you are also sure he's going to play and more often than not, he's the man who manages to drag his team out of the mire they so often find themselves in.
Outside of that, Paqueta is also having a decent season. He's ranked 13th overall on the ICT for midfielders so hardly a must have at the moment. However, 6 of the players currently above him on that list are going to feature in AFCON which might suddenly leave him as viable option even if that is simply because he's the best of a bad bunch.
West Ham have what looks like a very difficult run of fixtures coming up but actually for a Nuno side they are just the kind of opposition he wants i.e. teams that will come onto you and allow you to transition quickly on the break. He's made a career of doing just that at Wolves and Forest so West Ham players might be dark horses for higher than expect points over the coming weeks.