Welcome back to week 12 of the Hive FPL!
International delays (breaks) are now behind for the next 4 months allowing Premier League teams, players and of course FPL managers to focus all of their efforts on club concerns.
As a result, we have 8 game weeks to get through before the turn of the year with GW19, starting on 30 December, neatly coinciding with the halfway mark of the season and the chip reset.
Personally, I think this part of the year is going to be what separates the men from the boys both in terms of the Premier League real and the FPL.
3 points separate 4th and 12th place in the league making it very difficult to really gauge where FPL managers can find an advantage in the opposition that their squad face.
In addition to the multitude of league matches to be played, FPL managers will also have to contend with 9 EPL teams competing in Europe with a further 2 rounds of fixtures on the continent to come in 2025 plus the involvement of 7 Premier League clubs in the League Cup Quarter Finals next month.
It means that the likes of City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Palace and Newcastle, all popular with FPL managers, face a run of 11 matches in the next 38-40 days. Squad rotation is either going to become a necessity to avoid injury or injury is going to necessitate squad rotation.
In fact, it's possible that this dillema has already started, with a number of high profile players listed as doubts for GW12. They include 3 of the top 4 scoring defenders in the 25/26 season as well as the top scoring midfielder and a couple of other players in that area of the pitch having decent seasons who are popular FPL picks.
Players currently listed as doubtful for GW12
| Player | Total Points | Teams Selected By FPL total | Teams selected in Hive FPL* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel (ARS) | 81 | 41.8% | 54% |
| Guehi (CRY) | 64 | 34.1% | 38% |
| Gabriel (ARS) | 61 | 15.8% | 24% |
| Semenyo (BOU) | 75 | 63.1% | 84% |
| Enzo (CHE) | 48 | 13.7% | 24% |
| Kudus (TOT) | 45 | 20.7%% | 26% |
*Top 50 ranked teams only
It's also notable that within the Hive FPL, these players are even more popular than in the game in general suggesting that almost everyone will be entering GW12 with some serious selection dilemas.
First and foremost will be to wait on Friday's press conferences to glean as much information as possible about who is playing or not before making any moves in the transfer market. Even then, it seems likely that this will be the pattern going forward and that having a bit of squad depth in your fantasy team or at least the ability to change things up without taking a substantial points hit will be key going forward.
Fixture difficult is also going to complicate the matter particularly amongst some of the top sides and those which are popular for FPL squads to be built on.
Top placed Arsenal face back to back London derbies and an away trip to Villa in the next 4 weeks. Given their solidity at the back, managers are likely to stick with their defenders although doubling-up now carries greater risk than it did earlier in the year. As per the above, there is also now substantially greater risk of rotation amongst those defenders given both the injury concerns but also Arsenal's abundance of options there.
As we noted in the GW12 Premier League preview earlier in the week, City's home form versus their away form is quite different this season, particularly when it comes to scoring goals. As such, those 3 pre-Christmas fixtures at the Ethiad all look very appealing and I'm sure will see Haaland broadly backed as captain. By contrast, the 3 away matches will all be tough games and perhaps require managers to look at alternatives for double points.
Given the popularity of the their players, Palace are also a team worth taking note of in the coming weeks. As mentioned above, they face a very congested fixture list between now and the end of the year and they have significantly fewer resources to call upon than the established sides.
Of equal concern is that their upcoming matches rated 'green' (the perceived easiest fixtures) are both away from home. Home sides have won 53% of EPL games so far this season, the highest ever home advantage recorded in the Premier League era!
Division 1
GW11 Results
GW12 Fixtures
Division 2
GW11 Results
GW12 Fixtures
GW12 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our suggestions on where to look for an advantage this weekend...
Will the liver bird rise from the flames?
Ok so it's not a phoenix but the mythical bird upon Liverpool's shirts is certainly looking a bit singed with the league champions having lost 5 of their last 6 games. On paper, they now face a run of matches that looks pretty appealing and the opportunity for FPL managers to bring in a couple of Liverpool assets at a cut price.
Mo Salah scored in GW9 and 10 and recorded an xGI of 0.60 against City suggesting that his fortunes might be beginning to change. Still, at £14.2mil he's the kind of player that you have to be sure will deliver week on week not to mention that he'll be off to AFCON in 4 weeks time.
Therefore, if you're one of the 23% of teams that has kept faith in him then you're probably hoping that the next few weeks will reward that dedication but otherwise he's not really an option. In fact, despite the fixture difficult of many sides noted above and Liverpool's easier run of games, Salah doesn't feature at all in the players most transferred in for GW12 and on current market sentiment is more likely to see another fall in his price rather than an increase.
At the time of writing, FPL managers don't seem to fancy any of the Liverpool front line this week with Gakpo and Ekitike appearing in only a few more teams than they were in prior to the international break. Based on the stats above and his price point, it's the Dutchman who looks like the better option despite him having been benched against City last time out.
Hello Manchester!
Bryan Mbeumo had a fairly underwhelming return of 1 goal in his first 6 games for United but has since turned that around with 5 goal involvements in his last 5 games + 5 bonus points during the same period.
It's a run that has seen Mbeumo's popularity and price increase dramatically over the last few weeks. Mbeumo was at his season start price of £8mil in GW9 but has since shot up to £8.4mil and may well increase again in the coming days/weeks.
His and United's potency in attack at Old Trafford is a definitely an attractive proposition. The Red Devils have scored 2 or more goals in their last 5 matches and 11 goals in their last 4 home fixtures since blanking against Arsenal on the opening day.
The fact that United and City rarely play home games on the same weekend (presumably at the request of the local police) means that Mbeumo is also shaping up as a viable captaincy alternative to Haaland in the coming weeks.
Mbeumo of course will be away with Cameroon for AFCON so you do need a contingency plan to remove him from your side but for the next 5 weeks he looks a good bet whether as captain or not to get you consistent points.
The only fly in the ointment? He's never scored or assisted in his 9 previous appearances versus Everton. By far his worst head to head record against another Premier League club!
Where to look for clean sheets?
The linen closet is always a good place to start!
But in FPL terms, GW12 might require managers to get a little more creative. We've already noted the injury concerns of many of the most popular defenders in this season's game as well as the challenging fixtures their sides face even if they do get on the pitch. It might well be time to consider a few alternatives then...
Fulham v Sunderland would be a pretty good place to start for GW12. The Black Cats have scored just 3 times on their travels this year and while Fulham have been struggling to pick up points of late they don't concede many at Craven Cottage, again just 3 in 5 games there this season.
Having a defensive line with players from both sides + a Palace defender + a Bournemouth defender looks like a good bet to ensure you've got options to account for different strength opponents across the next few weeks.
Managers would be all over Ryan Sessengnon if he were listed as a defender but despite spending most of his time this season as a full-back he misses out on the larger clean sheet bonuses while his attacking returns (2 goals and 2 assists) aren't quite enough to make him a viable midfield option.
Only Senesi and Tarkowski have equalled or bettered Andersen's DefCon points so far this season
That really leaves managers with the dependable Joachim Andersen, an FPL favourite for many years, as the best option. His haul this year of 39 points is pretty decent for a guy playing in a side that has lost 6 games this season and finds itself a point above the relegation zone. To put that into contrast, William Saliba also has 39 points this year and he'll cost you £1.5mil more the Anderson.