Welcome back to Hive FPL game week 16!
With AFCON set to commence shortly, FPL managers have been given an early Christmas present with their 5 free transfers topped up to allow them to make the necessary changes to their squad that the loss of Africa's best and brightest will bring.
With that though comes the issue of quite significant price volatility on transfers as manager rush to dump some of those players while pilling in on their popular replacements.
Here we'll look at who is taking part in AFCON and who has already changed price or is likely to change price in the coming days.
While not all AFCON teams have been formally announced yet, the below is a best guess on the Premier League stars who will be called up to play in the tournament and shows
- how essential they have been for their respective clubs measured by the % of Premier League minutes they've played this season
- their importance to FPL measured by their current ownership %
- their current price and likely change to that price in the coming days and weeks
.
| Club | Player | % of Prem mins played 25/26 | % Owned by | Current Price | Price prediction (timeframe) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Evann Guessand | 41 | 0.0% | 6.2 | no change |
| Bournemouth | Amine Adli | 29 | 0.0% | 5.4 | no change |
| Brentford | Frank Onyeka | 7 | 0.1% | 4.8 | no change |
| Brentford | Dango Ouattara | 70 | 1.4% | 6.0 | Increase (>week) |
| Brighton | Carlos Baleba | 62 | 1.8% | 4.6 | Decrease (>week) |
| Burnley | Hannibal Mejbri | 32 | 0.1% | 4.8 | no change |
| Burnley | Axel Tuanzebe | 50 | 1.5% | 3.9 | no change |
| Burnley | Lyle Foster | 61 | 1.2% | 5.0 | Decrease (>week) |
| Crystal Palace | Ismaila Sarr | 73 | 3.6% | 6.4 | no change |
| Crystal Palace | Christantus Uche | 2 | 0.0% | 5.5 | no change |
| Everton | Idrissa Gueye | 77 | 0.1% | 5.4 | no change |
| Everton | Iliman Ndiaye | 93 | 9.0% | 6.4 | Decrease (>week) |
| Fulham | Calvin Bassey | 94 | 0.6% | 4.5 | Increase (>week) |
| Fulham | Alex Iwobi | 93 | 1.3% | 6.4 | Decrease (>week) |
| Fulham | Samuel Chukwueze | 18 | 0.5% | 5.3 | Increase (>week) |
| Liverpool | Mohamed Salah | 89 | 17.7% | 14.0 | Decrease (>week) |
| Man City | Omar Marmoush | 15 | 2.5% | 8.3 | Decrease (>week) |
| Man City | Rayan Ait-Nouri | 16 | 4.3% | 5.7 | Decrease (>week) |
| Man Utd | Noussair Mazraoui | 30 | 0.2% | 4.9 | Increase (>week) |
| Man Utd | Amad Diallo | 81 | 1.8% | 6.3 | Increase (>week) |
| Man Utd | Bryan Mbeumo | 97 | 28.6% | 8.4 | Decrease (>week) |
| Nottm Forest | Ola Aina | 21 | 2.1% | 4.7 | no change |
| Nottm Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 11 | 0.3% | 5.2 | no change |
| Nottm Forest | Ibrahim Sangaré | 58 | 0.1% | 4.9 | no change |
| Nottm Forest | Willy Boly | 0 | 0.4% | 3.9 | Decrease (>week) |
| Sunderland | Chemsdine Talbi | 61 | 0.2% | 5.0 | Increase (>week) |
| Sunderland | Habib Diarra | 28 | 0.0% | 5.3 | no change |
| Sunderland | Simon Adingra | 24 | 0.4% | 5.0 | Decrease (>week) |
| Sunderland | Arthur Masuaku | 10 | 0.7% | 3.9 | Decrease (>week) |
| Sunderland | Noah Sadiki | 99 | 0.1% | 5.0 | Increase (>week) |
| Sunderland | Bertrand Traore | 39 | 0.1% | 5.5 | Increase (>week) |
| Sunderland | Reinildo Mandava | 74 | 3.8% | 4.0 | Decrease (>week) |
| Tottenham | Yves Bissouma | 0 | 0.0% | 5.2 | no change |
| Tottenham | Pape Matar Sarr | 55 | 1.3% | 4.7 | Decrease (>week) |
| West Ham | El Hadji Malick Diouf | 96 | 2.3% | 4.2 | Decrease (week) |
| West Ham | Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 66 | 5.2% | 4.2 | Decrease (>week) |
| Wolves | Tolu Arokodare | 23 | 0.0% | 5.4 | no change |
| Wolves | Emmanuel Agbadou | 66 | 0.2% | 4.3 | no change |
| Wolves | Tawanda Chirewa | 2 | 0.3% | 4.3 | Increase (>week) |
| Wolves | Marshall Munetsi | 69 | 0.1% | 5.4 | Increase (>week) |
One thing is clear, most players on this list are set to decrease in price soon.
It's noticeable that some Brentford, Fulham and United stars have continued to rise in price and I think we can put that down to their favourable fixtures in GW16 and the potential that they will appear in a lot of Free Hit sides as a result. Thereafter, you'd have to expect that their price will fall and fall hard!
It's also worth remembering that the prices above are the price you'd pay to transfer in one of these players. If you've already got them in your squad then you're not going to re-coup that amount.
Take for example, Bryan Mbeumo, the most owned player that will be leaving for AFCON. His price to buy is current £8.4mil but if you have him already and want to sell him then you'll recoup £8.2mil to reinvest.
Mbeumo's price has been decreasingly in recent weeks and looks set to fall again
Of course, there is a good chance that if you've backed Mbeumo up until now that you'd also like to bring him back in when he returns in January. If so, then you'd need to make up the 0.2mil shortfall.
All in all though, FPL managers have been a bit lucky with the players involved with AFCON. No doubt the tournament has dissuaded teams from looking at a few of the names above, particularly in recent weeks because of their upcoming unavailability. However, only Mbeumo and Salah have significant ownership and the later is going to quickly fall out of favour in the FPL for different reasons.
The likes of Semenyo (44.5% ownership), Kudus (16.2%) and Minteh (9.1%) will all remain in England over the Christmas period after their respective nations failed to qualify for the tournament.
In regards price impact on non-AFCON players, I think the players to watch are those left at clubs who will be sending key assets to play in the tournament and that could work in 1 of 2 ways.
Firstly, FPL managers may fancy having a player from a certain club in their side because they think their fixtures are an opportunity to score points.
An example of this would be Bruno Fernandes who is likely to be seen as a potential replacement in FPL sides for his United teammate Mbeumo. Fernandes' price has already risen in line with Mbemo's price falls over the last couple of weeks and I'd expect this will continue.
Grealish for Ndiaye might be another change that occurs but perhaps not until after Everton's games against Chelsea and Arsenal!
Secondly, is the potential impact that the loss of multiple key players might have on a clubs performance in the short term. Sunderland for example are losing half a team! Fulham will be without key players in Bassey and Iwobi while form man Chukwueze is also out. Everton, West Ham and United are all losing 2 first team regulars each from squads without a huge amount of depth.
These absences do need to be accounted for when establishing fixture difficulty over the next few weeks.
What do we mean by 'next few weeks'?
Well that too is something worth trying to calculate. FIFA has dictated that players need to join up with their respective squads from 15 December which means that all the players above should be available for GW16 (assuming no prior injury or suspension).
The group stages of the tournament start on 21 December and go through to the 31 December so it's not impossible that some of these players might be returning shortly after celebrating the New Year.
GW17 and GW18 are definitely out for an player involved. Is it impossible to imagine that some AFCON players could take part in GW19 which runs from 31 December to 1 January?
The knockout stages are then as following
Round of 16 - 3 to 6 January
Quarter Finals - 9 to 10 January
Semi-Finals - 14 January
3rd place / Final - 17 to 18 January
Any player whose nation qualifies for the knockout stages will definitely miss GW19 & GW20 while their involvement in GW21 would be touch and go.
Quarter finalists are definitely out for 5 weeks (GW17 to GW21). However, the Premier League does then break for the 3rd round of the FA Cup so semi-finalists who are guaranteed to play 2 more games would definitely miss GW22 but should be back for GW23.
Which nations and players are likely to spend longer away?
Well it's always tough to tell and AFCON has a habit of throwing up a few surprises. However, the bookies will tell you that there are 9 teams that are clearly head shoulders above the rest.
latest odds on outright winners of AFCON 25/26
Below this, the next shortest odds to win the tournament are South Africa at 42/1 and DR Congo at 52/1.
It's no greatest surprise that majority of Premier League stars are playing for one of the 9 nations above who you'd expect to get through to the later stages of the tournament. However, there are a few who come from nations whose chances (at least as far as the bookies are concerned) aren't looking so great.
You can gets odds as long as 150/1 on Mozambique winning the tournament which might mean that Reinaldo returns to Sunderland after just a couple of weeks. Similarly, Dango Ouattara's Burkina Faso side aren't expected to go into the later stages so he might be back to face the likes of Everton and Sunderland who themselves are much more likely to be missing key players for those fixtures.
Division 1
GW15 Results
GW16 Fixtures
Division 2
GW15 Results
GW16 Fixtures
GW16 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips and picks for GW16 of the season...
A kid in a candy shop
With everyone up to the max 5 free transfers, the temptation is to view this is an opportunity to make wholesale changes to your team. That of course may be a necessary requirement for some managers who have been struggling of late and burned their wildcard chip early.
However, if you've got a broadly decent side then there's no need to burn these transfers all in 1 week. They do carry over (noting that the max you can ever carry over is 5 free transfers) which could mean you can extend their advantage well into January a month that brings the re-opening of the transfer window, the return of AFCON players and of course allows you to play the usual peaks and troughs of form.
Now we've told you why not to make transfers, here's who to bring in for GW16...
London Calling
There looks to be lots of points on offer this weekend in the capital.
Arsenal (top) host Wolves (bottom) in one of the surest things that you're ever likely to find when it comes to the result. Less certain is FPL points. Might this be an opportunity for Arteta to rest and rotate after a busy few weeks?
If you believe he'll play, then Saka is a viable option for captain and could prove a decisive differential as he still only appears in 20% of sides. His goal scoring numbers over the last 18 months have dropped off a bit but there is reason to believe that could change when you look at his recent form and underlying stats.
Saka's xGI since GW10 puts him amongst the 5 top midfielders in the game
Defensive options of Arsenal are also a good shout against a Wolves team who have scored just once in their last 6 games and have only 1 goal in total away from home this season.
Chelsea continue to be a harder team to predict. No win for them so far in any competition during December but the game against Everton will be their first at Stamford Bridge since taking on Arsenal at the end of last month. They will be desperate for all 3 points but I don't think this will be an open game.
The Toffees have managed 1-0 wins in both their last away trips in the league and I think we'll see another tight game here which means that defensive options on either side would be a decent bet.
On recent form, it'll be the polar opposite across the way in Brentford who entertain Leeds. Both sides are full of goals at the moment and games at the Gtech tend to be fairly open.
Thiago has become close to a must have for the 25/26 season with his 11 goals from 14 games and if Calvert-Lewin can maintain his current form and stay fit then he might join the Brentford man on that list.
The former Everton striker has a goal in each of his last 3 games and higher xG than any other player in that same period. He and Nmecha who is currently out injured provide Leeds with an attacking duo that might just be enough to keep them in the top flight.
From an FPL perspective, the fact that the pair of them rarely start together could prove a bit of a headache but Calvert-Lewin will almost certainly be the man in possession for this match and then the home game against Palace.
Calvert-Lewin season on season performance
It's no major surprise that when Calvert-Lewin is fit and able to get a run of matches in the side then he looks like a high quality forward. He has only ever managed 2000+ mins in 3 Premier League seasons to date and all 3 have been very productive with his xG per 90 rising by about 0.1 compared to the seasons where he's struggled to stay fit and in the team.