We go again!
The busy Christmas and New Year period continues with GW20 fixtures taking place across the weekend.
GW19 was a tough one for Fantasy managers with the average score across the game of just 44 points. Goals were particularly difficult to come by for fantasy managers yet again with 3 of the matches on Sunday finishing as nil nil draws.
All in all it means that there is a real goalscoring drought amongst the top forward and midfield options at present.
The 5 most popular forward options (Haaland, Ekitike, Joao Pedro, Thiago and Woltemade) have collectively scored just a single goal across GW18 & 19 (Joao Pedro vs Villa).
Meanwhile things aren't much better in the midfield department. Of the 5 most popular midfield options (Semenyo, Foden, Saka, Rogers & Rice) only Semenyo has scored, despite the ongoing speculation about his future, over the these last 2 weeks.
I guess the real question for managers is whether this is just a statistical anomaly, a temporary blip or a problem that needs fixing longer term.
Let's go on what we do know which is the stats over the past couple of weeks against those for the whole season.
The below table shows 2 of the key stats for measuring the likelihood of a player to score, the ICT Threat Ranking and Opta Stats expected goals (xG). I've added a mixture of both the best performers over the last couple of weeks and the 5 most popular forwards and 5 most popular midfielders noted above.
| Player (Club) | Threat Rating GW18 & 19 (rank) | Threat Rating 25/26 season (rank) | xG GW18 & 19 (rank) | xG 25/26 season (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks (Bournemouth) | 127 (1st) | 360 (21st) | 2.3 (2nd) | 4.11 (29th) |
| Watkins (Villa) | 126 (2nd) | 524 (7th) | 2.3 (2nd) | 7.19 (4th) |
| Semenyo (Bournemouth) | 113 (3rd) | 588 (3rd) | 1.1 (15th) | 6.50 (10th) |
| Raul (Fulham) | 108 (4th) | 383 (18th) | 1.1 (15th) | 5.07 (16th) |
| Schade (Brentford) | 100 (5th) | 463 (10th) | 2.8 (1st) | 6.59 (9th) |
| Ekitike (Liverpool) | 68 (13th) | 431 (12th) | 2.0 (4th) | 5.66 (14th) |
| Witrz (Liverpool) | 87 (8th) | 333 (32nd) | 1.8 (5th) | 3.63 (35th) |
| Haaland (City) | 44 (37th) | 933 (1st) | 0.6 (51st) | 16.6 (1st) |
| Joao Pedro (Chelsea) | 78 (10th) | 458 (11th) | 1.6 (6th) | 6.32 (11th) |
| Thiago (Brentford) | 31 (66th) | 542 (4th) | 0.6 (51st) | 9.23 (2nd) |
| Woltemade (Newcastle) | 10 (151st) | 335 (31st) | 0.0 (unranked) | 5.79 (13th) |
| Foden (City) | 54 (24th) | 346 (25th) | 1.1 (15th) | 4.56 (19th) |
| Rogers (Villa) | 16 (120th) | 383 (18th) | 0.7 (45th) | 2.42 (66th) |
| Saka (Arsenal) | 90 (7th) | 483 (8th) | 1.3 (11th) | 4.9 (17th) |
| Rice (Arsenal) | 16 (120th) | 179 (55th) | 0.4 (80th) | 2.17 (74th) |
One of the issues that stands out from the table above is the reliance on players like Foden (39% of FPL teams) and Rogers (28.3%) to deliver on a consistent basis.
Both players have scored 7 goals this season meaning that they are behind only Semenyo for goals scored from midfield. However, those goals have come in patches. Foden scored 6 times between GW13 to GW16. He's scored just once across the other 15 GWs this season. Meanwhile Rogers has scored 3 braces this season while blanking (no goal or assist) in 12 GWs.
Given the price of both players, they do appear to be high risk, high reward assets at present. Perhaps you can afford to have 1 in your team but carrying both will see significant peaks and troughs in your point scoring.
A more consistent option would certainly be Saka who has had goal involvements in 9 matches so far this season from 15 starts. He's only twice hit double points in a game week but during these barren spells he represents a safe haven for FPL managers.
Nick Woltemade, the 5th most popular forward in the game in 18% of squads is another one to watch. Newcastle, as we suggested in the GW19 blog, do have a nice run of fixtures coming up but Woltemade has looked about as threatening as a kitten with a ball of string in recent weeks.
He did score twice in Newcastle's last home match against Chelsea but those are his only 2 goal involvements of the last 5 GWs. In the 4 matches where he blanked his total xGI was 0.24.
Again, a more consistent option and in this case cheaper pick would be Fulham's Raul Jimenez. The Mexican is by no means a glamour player but has delivered 7 goal involvements in his last 14 games. He is also Fulham's dedicated penalty taker (Woltemade appears to be 2nd choice behind Gordon) and with Muniz out injured is the only recognised striker in the Fulham squad for the next 6-8 weeks. By contrast, Wissa is now back to fitness and challenging Woltemade for minutes.
Division 1
GW19 Results
GW20 Fixtures
Division 2
GW19 Results
GW20 Fixtures
GW20 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips and picks for GW20 of the season...
Boring, Boring Tottenham
Was the chant amongst the Brentford supporters on Thursday evening and it would be fair to say that it was a difficult watch for both sets of fans and any neutral daft enough to give up 90mins of their life to watch 2 teams intent on not playing football.
Still, from an FPL perspective it does mean that Spurs have delivered 2 clean sheets in as many matches putting them on 7 shut outs for the season with only Arsenal (9), Everton, Chelsea and City (all 8) having recorded more.
It also means that at the halfway stage of the 25/26 season, Spurs have already eclipsed their clean sheet tally for the whole of 24/25 (just 6). A home game against Sunderland who have scored just 4 times on their travels this season represents a good opportunity for more points from their defenders in GW20.
Micky Van de Ven would be the obvious pick at £4.5mil. He's already accumulated 82 points this season making him the 12th most prolific defender in FPL 25/26. Of the 11 players ahead of him in those stakes, only Sunderland's Mukiele with 85 points is cheaper than the Dutchman (£4.3mil).
In fact, given Spurs problems with creativity at present, you might fancy having both in your squad this weekend. Spurs hadn't had a nil nil draw in the Premier League for 137 games (the longest run in the competition) before the snooze fest at the Gtech. Could they make it 2 on the bounce?
| Home Team | xG | Away Team | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 0.56 | Spurs | 0.61 |
| Palace | 0.93 | Spurs | 0.87 |
| Sunderland | 0.63 | Newcastle | 0.17 |
| Palace | 0.84 | Brighton | 0.64 |
| Palace | 0.72 | Brentford | 0.82 |
| Bournemouth | 0.66 | Forest | 0.31 |
| Arsenal | 0.86 | Palace | 0.35 |
| Everton | 0.91 | West Ham | 0.78 |
| Bournemouth | 0.55 | Newcastle | 0.15 |
| Sunderland | 0.94 | Villa | 0.94 |
| Leeds | 0.68 | Newcastle | 0.30 |
| Liverpool | 0.48 | Arsenal | 0.49 |
Games in Premier League season 25/26 where neither team has record +1 xG
The above table shows that their last 2 matches have both finished with neither side recording xG of more than 1 goal. There have been 10 other such fixtures so far this season with Sunderland involved in 2 of those games including their recent match against Newcastle.
Home advantage for Magpies and Seagulls
Newcastle and Brighton occupy 13th and 14th spot in the table respectively and are currently being hampered in their attempts at European qualification by inconsistent performances. However, both sides have had to play 3 of their last 4 Premier League games away from home where they've found it much tougher to pick up points.
That trend is about to change starting with GW20's fixtures. Newcastle, as we've already mentioned, have a nice run of matches coming up. Meanwhile Brighton's next 5 home matches in the EPL are Burnley, Bournemouth, Everton, Palace and Forest.
Danny Welbeck returned to the starting XI and scored against West Ham last week. With 8 goals this season, he is the joint 4th highest scorer in the league and with his goals coming at 1 every 136 mins, only Haaland has a better goals to mins ratio this season.
Most assists this season in the Premier League
Another player worth watching and a man who'll be glad to have Welbeck back is Minteh. The Gambian has 8 assists so far this season (joint highest in the league) with 7 of those coming in the first 12 game weeks. It's no great coincidence that Welbeck scored 7 of his league goals during that same period and that Minteh has dried up since the former United and Arsenal striker was out of the team.
The Chelsea conundrum
I don't think that we can say it's a surprise that Chelsea have sacked another manager. The next man in the job will be their 19th boss of the Premier League era drawing them level with Spurs on the all-time list of most managers both of whom trail Southampton who despite not being ever present in the English top-flight have had 25 different managers!
I guess the question is who will come in and will we see a major change in style or approach from the Blues under their new boss?
My guess is no, we won't. The Chelsea model is one dictated by the owners and joint Sporting Directors with the manager very much seen as the man who is expected to deliver that vision on the pitch rather than set it himself. As much as anything, that is what has lead to Maresca losing his job following a number of poor results coupled with comments to the press about the running of the club that clearly didn't go down well with those in charge.
In FPL terms there are a number of semi-popular Chelsea players out there including Sanchez, Cucurella, Chalobah, Palmer, Enzo and Joao Pedro. The uncertainty created by Maresca's departure and a tough few games to come probably means that they'll be leaving more teams than they join through January.
Chelsea's EPL fixtures from GW24-27
However, as always with FPL it's worth keeping an eye on what's to come and Chelsea do have a very nice run of fixtures from late January through February. Make sure to pay attention over the coming weeks to which Blues players to target for those matches.