Welcome back to Hive FPL for our GW23 preview.
Who'd be an FPL manager these days?
The top 4 in the EPL all had disappointing weekends last time out with Arsenal drawing at Forest, City losing at United, Villa losing at Everton and Liverpool drawing at home to Burnley. 1 goal scored between the best 4 sides in the country and just a single clean sheet.
It follows on from what has been a incredibly difficult month in the FPL which has now seen 5 consecutive game weeks where the average score was below 50.
Haaland blanking in 4 of those 5 weeks has obviously contributed to that shortage of sizeable scores but many other popular players are struggling too.
Here then is the most picked XI at the time of writing. Between them they've delivered just 240 points for the past 5 GWs or on average 48 points a week.
Amongst the worst offenders are Phil Foden (27% of teams) who has delivered just 10 points since GW18. Marc Guehi (37.9%), the most popular defender in the game, and Morgan Rogers whose popularity has grown week on week for past 7 GWs aren't much better with just 12 points during that same period.
In fact, of those XI players only Gabriel (39 points) and Thiago (38 points) can be said to be 'in form' and justifying their hefty price tags (certainly in the case of Gabriel) and popularity amongst FPL managers.
Even beyond this group of the most popular players, things aren't looking much better. Ekitike narrowly missed the cut and is the 3rd most popular forward, he's delivered just 9 points in the last 5 weeks! Joao Pedro is just behind in terms of popularity and has 20 points over the same period. Meanwhile, VVD whose Liverpool side enjoyed a good run of games over the past month has also delivered just 17 points.
The likelihood is that of the 14 players mentioned above, you have at least 4 in your side and in the majority of cases, they are taking up a hefty part of your budget and returning diddly squat.
So who (if anyone) is scoring points at the moment and perhaps more importantly, are they the players to bring in for the foreseeable future?
Below are the XI players who have delivered the most FPL points since this barren period began in GW18.
First off, the most noticable thing is only 2 of them appear in the most popular XI above (Thiago and Gabirel).
Bruno Guimaraes wasn't far off making that most popular XI and we've written about the great season he is having in a recent blog. However, he went off injured in Newcastle's Champions League game on Wednesday night and is a significant doubt for this weekend if not longer term.
Outside of those 3, the Merseyside trio of Pickford, Tarkowski and Wirtz are all hovering around the 13% ownership mark. Clearly having an Everton defender is a good shout with the Toffees having delivered 9 clean sheets this season (2nd only to Arsenal).
Wirtz's uptick in form has coincided with Liverpool enjoying a good run of fixtures against bottom third sides and the injury/availability crisis that has left him one of the primary attacking options at the club. Will he be able to continue his resurgence against tougher opposition and with the likes of Salah, Gakpo and Ekitike all returning to the squad?
Dorgu at 8.1% is in fact the top points scorer over the past 5 weeks (40 points) adding offensive (2 goals and an assist) and defensive output (2 Def Con points) to his game.
Last Saturday, he once again played in a more advanced position than he has done for much of his early United career, this time as the left sided player in 3 behind Mbeumo. I'd imagine that he will do similarly against Arsenal this weekend but it'll be interesting to see how United line-up when the onus is on them to make more of the play.
Carrick has already reverted to a back 4 with Luke Shaw installed in a more familiar role while the likes of Cunha and Sesko wait in the wings to add to the attacking threat. Dorgu's minutes seem far from guaranteed despite he decent form.
Brentford's lose to Chelsea last weekend ended a very good run for them of 4 wins and a draw in their previous 5 and as such it's no surprise to see Collins and Schade in this squad alongside Thiago. If I were to name a bench, Keheller would have the sub goalie too.
The real question though is can you bank on that many Brentford players in your team to perform week in week out? Schade in particular is in this squad largely off the back of the hattrick and 20 points he scored in GW18. He's got a couple of assists since then but he has historically blown a bit hot and cold. Ultimately, if you've got the more reliable Thiago in your squad then you probably don't want Schade too.
Collins is similar. A very reliable defender and def con monster. He's also gotten 3 goal involvements in his the last 3 games. However, those are his only goal involvements this season and he has scored only 6 Premier League goals in this his 5th season in the top flight. He's definitely an option but at £5mil is the best option?
You could probably say the same of Thiaw at Newcastle. A solid 4.8 PPG in his debut season in the Premier League and largely on this list because he scored 17 points in GW20. Newcastle also benefited from a decent run of fixtures during this period but now face 3 of the top 4 sides over the next 5 GWs.
That just leaves Aaronson, the real dark horse of the team, owned by just 0.8% of sides, the American has suddenly found his goal scoring boots hitting 3 in the 5 week period we are assessing.
Undoubtedly a hard worker and with an eye for an assist (he has 6 of them this season), he's generally struggled to find the back of the net when playing at the highest level. Just 1 goal in his first season in the Premier League and then 2 while on loan to the Bundesliga in between those stints, this then might represent an improvement and/or a purple patch.
Division 1
GW22 Results
GW23 Fixtures
Division 2
GW22 Results
GW23 Fixtures
GW23 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips and picks for GW23 of the season...
City's blip turns into slump as the robot malfunctions
With Arsenal having dropped 4 points in the last 2 weeks, you felt it was that time of the season for Pep's side to begin to make their move. However, they are suffering their own blip in form which following a defeat at Bodo on Tuesday night must now go down as a slump. In fact, bottom placed Wolves who they entertain on Saturday have recorded more points than City over the last 4 weeks!
It makes what was appeared the key fixture to target this week, look like a potential banana skin for FPL sides!
Haaland would be the obvious choice for the captain's armband this week if he hadn't endured a barren streak of 1 goal in 5 games.
Add to that a quote from Pep on 14 January as follows
"Hopefully Omar will be back soon to give rest to Erling because Erling is exhausted"
The robot Haaland needing an oil change being tired mantra was pushed again after the loss on Wednesday and of course Marmoush is now available again. Could this be the match to rest Haaland? Ordinarily you'd think so but City desperately need a win and Haaland, tired or not, is still one of their best chances of coming out of this slump and keeping them just about in the title race.
Haaland's diminishing returns but are you brave enough to bet against him?
Things heating up at the bottom
While inconsistency plagues the top of the Premier League, things are getting pretty spicy at the bottom. In fact, over the past couple of weeks the bottom 6 have picked up more points (16) than the top 6 (13).
Wins for West Ham, Forest, Leeds and Bournemouth have bosted their chances of surival while the likes of Palace and Spurs need to arrest their recent poor form if they are to avoid getting sucked into what looks likely to be an entertaining battle at the bottom of the league.
With some of the bigger clubs with more popular FPL picks going head to head this weekend (Arsenal v United and Newcastle v Villa) then perhaps the bottom of the league is the place to look for action and points.
Burnley have no win in the Premier League since October and fewer points in the last 12 games than any other side. Of course, Spurs who visit them on Saturday aren't in a much better position with just 1 win in their last 6 but they do still have the 2nd best away record in the league this season. This feels like a must win game for both sides and both managers.
Romero and Van de Ven join a number of defenders on 3 goals this season
The returning Solanke might be one to watch for later in the season, assuming that he can regain and retain his fitness. However, it's Spurs 2 centre-backs that currently offer a better option for points. Both Romero and Van de Ven are amongst a whole plethora of defenders on 3 goals this season with the former having scored against West Ham last weekend and in the Champions League midweek.
Meanwhile Forest have come off the back of a tough set of fixtures during the Christmas and New Year period and recorded a big win at West Ham followed by a bonus point against Arsenal.
Their next 4 matches will go a long way to determining their Premier League status. Pick up 7 points from this run of games and they won't be safe but it makes the remainder of the season a lot less fraught.
Brentford however have been in very good form and as always are good value for money at home - only the top 3 in the league have a better home record than the Bees.
Anytime goal or assist odds for this weekend
It means that Thiago is 2nd only to Haaland for odds on anytime goal or assist in GW23 and with the aforementioned concerns about Haaland's playing time then he might not be a bad shout for the captain's armband!