Welcome back to the Hive FPL blog for GW24.
After a month of writing posts bitching about how tough it's been to score FPL points of late, I thought it's time to change tact and believe that things are going to get better!
For a musical piece to celebrate the fact I could have gone for D:Ream's 'Things can only get better' but that tune has forever been tainted (at least in the UK) by New Labour's use of the song in the 90s. So instead, and to follow on from the theme of last week's blog, here's Florence and the Machine to cheer everyone up!
There is genuine reason to believe that that the dog days of January are over with February offering a number of opportunities for FPL managers to shake things up in the hunt for big points.
Here's what to look out for over the coming weeks
Chelsea get the green light!
The Blues next 4 matches look distinctly green as they take on 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the Premier League.
New Boss Liam Rosenior's solid start to life as Chelsea manager has gone a little bit under the radar courtesy of some turmoil elsewhere. His side's come back win over Napoli midweek was probably their best performance under their new boss to date and also ensured they avoid some fixture congestion in February by reaching the top 8 of the Champions League.
While it's still early days, Rosenior has shown a willingness to play attacking football with Chelsea scoring 5 goals in the 2 league games he's managed and 11 in the 4 cup matches since he took charge.
United are back but for how long?
A lot FPL managers would have been targeting United players after their matches against City and Arsenal and in doing so, have missed out on some points following a couple of vintage performances from Michael Carrick's team.
As it turns out, your tactics and formation are only part of what makes a successful team. Football is, at its heart, a running game and if you're prepared to run more than the opposition then you're in with a chance.
Of course, we've seen a tendency from United teams in the recent past to turn up for the 'big' matches and then revert to type against opposition who they should really be beating.
Their next 5 games all look winnable if they play with the energy that they've shown against City and Arsenal and of course they have the benefit of being solely focused on the league as they aim for a top 5 finish.
Arsenal wobbling but will they fall down?
No win in their last 3 league matches for the Gunners has just invited a little bit of pressure on them but whether they collapse completely or indeed whether any of the sides below them really have what it takes to apply the squeeze remains to be seen.
The concerning trend for FPL managers appears to be the number of goals that they've conceded since the turn of the year. 11 in their last 8 matches in all competitions and just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 games. Bear in mind this is a team that went 8 games in a row without conceding during the Autumn including no goals against at all in the month of October. That run prompted most FPL managers to double on expensive Arsenal defenders safe in the knowledge that they'd get their money's worth. Is that still the case?
The 2 clean sheets they have delivered of late have both been nil nil draws suggesting that Arteta's side are struggling to balance attack with defence.
Again, there are no great opposition on the horizon for the Gunners and while they do have some tough away matches in the pipeline you feel that it might be beneficial for them to be removed from an increasingly nervy Emirates.
I'd say that by the 1 March, after Arsenal have navigated 3 potential banana skins and then back to back London derbies that we'll know whether we are in for a title race or not this season.
Time to use a wildcard?
Alongside the run of games above for popular players and teams, there are a number of other factors that will surely encourage FPL managers to be more inclined to use their 2nd and last wildcard.
AFCON players are now back and available to their side, the January transfer window is coming to an end and we have a clearer idea of what the fixture list will look like over the next 4 -6 weeks particularly for those clubs involved in Europe.
That includes a guaranteed double gameweek in GW26 although exactly which teams will play twice is yet to be decided. Should Arsenal maintain their Carabo Cup lead against Chelsea then they + Wolves will play twice in GW26. If Chelsea overcome the Gunners in the 2nd leg then it will be them + Everton who play twice with a blank in GW31 awaiting whichever gains the double.
Making substantial changes then seems less risky and with a potential upside that it could deliver some significant points. On the flip side, there are still 15 game weeks to navigate and the very real possibility of injuries, suspensions and loss of form to contend with over the next 3 and a half months.
To date, only 1 Hive FPL manager in the top 50, 
Division 1
GW23 Results
GW24 Fixtures
Division 2
GW23 Results
GW24 Fixtures
GW24 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips and picks for GW24 of the season...
Harry Wilson, player of the season?
In writing this blog, I was trying to think who are the really outstanding performers in the Premier League this season?
You'd have rank Arsenal's backline and keeper highly, alongside Declan Rice, they are the primary reason that the Gunners sit top of the table. However (and I'm trying not to let my obvious bias come into play here), you wouldn't pay to watch the likes of Gabriel and Jurien Timber play football! They don't get you off your seat with moments individual brilliance.
These goals are reminiscent of some of the left-footed strikes by the last Welshman to win an end of season award, Gareth Bale in 2012/13, who swept the lot before moving for a world record fee to Real Madrid
I'm heartened that my bias then seems to be consistent with those who decide such things with only 2 defenders having ever won 'The PFA Player of the Season' award during the Premier League era and just 1 defender scooping the 'The Football Writers Football of the Year Award' during the same period.
The bookies currently have Rice (2/1) and Haaland (3/1) as clear favourites for the PFA award (I couldn't find a market for the other awards) and you'd say that's fair. Rice might lead Arsenal to a long awaited title and Haaland could score another 30 goals between now and the end of the season.
One man that you can bet on at odds of 250/1 is Harry Wilson.
The Welshman is having the season of his life! He has already played more Premier League minutes this season than he's ever managed in a single campaign before and has delivered 14 goal contributions. Only 3 players have been more impactful for their clubs so far this season in that regard.
Highest % of team's goal involvements in the Premier League 25/26
Bear in mind that 5 of Thiago's goal involvements have been penalties (Haaland has 2 and Semenyo 1) and that Semenyo and Haaland are now impacting each other's GI%. If Wilson were to continue his form, he could well be the most influential attacking player in the league this season. Perhaps he's worth a couple of quid at those odds!
With his contract up in the summer, there's no guarantee that he won't make a late move this month, although a free transfer in the summer is more likely. Still he is the cheapest midfield option (£6.1mil) to breach the 100 point barrier this season.
Fulham have a tough run of fixtures in February with away trips to United, City and Sunderland but their March looks significantly better!
Hang on to Haaland?
The barren streak continues for the Norweigan with just 1 goal in his last 6 league matches and that strike which came against Brighton was a penalty and to date his only goal in all competitions during 2026.
In recent weeks, viable alternatives for captain have been few and far between and so Haaland's blanks have impacted the vast majority of managers equally. However, with City entering a tougher run of games compared to a few other sides (see above) then that theme is changing and the decision to stick or twist with him could have a significant impact on FPL standings.
The likes of Fernandes, Mbeumo, Enzo, Joao Pedro or even Cole Palmer if he gets fit are likely to be considered as captaincy options this week and next with the first 4 on that list currently the most transferred in players for GW24.
| Player | GW24 predicted points | GW25 predicted points |
|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 6.6 | 6.2 |
| Fernandes | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Mbuemo | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Enzo | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Joao Pedro | 5.2 | 4.6 |
Fantasy Hub's AI points prediction
Of course the nuclear option is to ditch Haaland from your squad full stop! The upside to this is that it frees up enough cash for you to instigate a number of changes to your side.
In fact, with Haaland gone you might struggle to spend your budget. The other truly premium price players of Salah and Palmer aren't currently doing enough to suggest you should rush out and buy them instead. While Saka remains a consistent point getter, he rarely hits the really high scores that you'd expect of a £10mil+ player (he has 2 x double digit GWs in 25/26).
The other condrum is what happens if you take him out and he returns to form. That in itself seems as likely to happen as the barren streak continuing. Haaland's value to buy is currently £15mil, his value to sell is currently £14.6mil so if you transfer him out today and then want to buy him back tomorrow, it'll cost £0.4mil!
Despite his poor returns, Haaland's performances give him the 4th highest expected points for the last 7 GWs amongst forwards and 20th highest overall
Add to this the fact that you'd almost certainly have to make a number of transfers in and out to be able to shoehorn him back into your side, meaning that for better or worse, FPL managers are stuck with Haaland unless they want to take a massive risk!