Welcome back to Hive FPL and we are going straight into GW28 with a Friday night Midlands derby between Wolves and Villa.
Both teams are looking to reignite their slim chances at either end of the table. For Wolves, it would truly be the great escape if they could avoid relegation from their current position while Villa are now 10 points off top spot and probably more concerned with the teams coming up behind them than they are focused on a title challenge.
As we come towards the final quarter of the season, it looks like a 2 horse race for the title with the next 4 teams locked in a battle for 3 Champions League spots.
At the bottom, it's probably 4 sides fighting it out to avoid the final relegation spot unless Burnley or Wolves do something special or there is a completed collapse of form from any of the sides from 8th down to 14th.
On the flip side any of those sides from 14th to 7th could end up qualifying for Europe!
For FPL managers, the fact that every team still needs wins should come as a comfort. At the very least, it suggests that managers will pick their best teams in order to win games.
However, it is worth keeping an eye on a few sides over the next few weeks. Take Palace for example, through now to the later stages of the Conference League and at present the bookies favourites to win the competition!
They probably need a couple more league wins to secure Premier League status and then they can focus on winning a third trophy in 12 months which would be an unprecedented success for them.
Newcastle could do something similar although you'd imagine that the onus will be on Eddie Howe to get his side into European spots via the league and of course the chances of them winning the Champions League or FA Cup are far slimmer.
Spurs and Forest, also still in Europe, are very unlikely to be afforded the opportunity to ease off in the league given their precarious positions.
Liverpool again, will surely want to get a top 5 finish to ensure qualification for the the Champions League but if that begins to slide away or if Chelsea/United/Villa run out of steam then they may well shift focus to Europe and of course the FA Cup.
Again, domestically you've got a few sides whose priority might well be the Cup as they bid to do what Palace achieved last season.
Fulham have had a very topsy turvy season. Starting slowly and creating concern about relegation, followed by a strong middle and then a poor February. They got a massive win last weekend to avoid a 4th straight defeat which would had them nervous again.
They've won 1 fewer league game this season than West London neighbours Chelsea but lost as many as Spurs who they face this weekend. In other words they are looking like the a-typical 'cup side'.
Staying in West London, Brentford who have a woeful record in the FA Cup, are through to the fifth round for the first time since 1989! Understandably their focus in recent years has been to maintain their top flight status but could this be the year that they change from plucky underdogs to serious contenders for a trophy?
Within the larger context these are all key considerations for FPL managers to make as they plan for the final 11 games of the 25/26 season.
Division 1
GW27 Results
GW28 Results
Division 2
GW27 Results
GW28 Results
Chelsea's golden run comes to an end
Plenty of FPL managers have stocked on up Chelsea talent in recent weeks in a bid to take advantage of their fixtures against 4 of the current bottom 6 clubs in the league and, for the most part, that tactic will have paid off.
However, as that golden run ends, it now shifts to the polar opposite with the FDR tracker giving them the hardest run of games of any side over the next few weeks.
The match against Arsenal is massive in any season but the Blues recent record against their London rivals is woeful with no win in their last 10 in all competitions and just a single victory in the last 15 meetings.
They've certainly enjoyed a nice bounce from the appointment of their new manager who delivered 13 points from his first 5 league games but seems to have been driven to drink already by his side's failure to get 3 points at home to Burnley last time out. By Easter, I suspect we'll know more about Rosenior's credentials to lead a club with lofty ambitions.
However, even players popular prior to the easy run such as Joao Pedro and Enzo are at risk of price drops. In fact, Enzo has already dropped in price from his season high £6.9mil at the start of last week to £6.8mil and if he continues to be transferred out at a similar rate will almost certainly be back down to £6.7mil by GW29 with his 'sell price' already at £6.5mil.
Liverpool pick up the baton
As sentiment moves from Chelsea, the shift is very much towards Liverpool players who alongside popular picks from United and Arsenal are giving most FPL sides a distinctly red look.
VVD is the most popular transfer in for GW28 (at time of writing) with Ekitiké and Szoboszlai also amongst the most popular buys. That's because, Liverpool's run of fixtures is looking much more appealing as we enter Spring!
For Van Dijk, his popularity is backed firstly by the fact that he's a near guaranteed starter but also because he is delivering consistenly at the moment. In fact over the last 5 GWs only Joao Pedro has scored more points than Liverpool's captain who has 2 goals and an assist during that period.
Szoboszlai too has been one of Liverpool's more consistent performers this season but particularly in his last 4 appearances where he's scored 29 of his 100 FPL points this season.
It's that kind of patchy form that has plagued Liverpool all season which means that any of their picks comes with a bit of risk regardless of the opposition.
Ekitiké is a prime example of this. The France forward has scored in just 1 of the last 10 EPL GWs and would therefore represent a real gamble even if the fixtures look appealing for his side.
His Premier League purple patch came between GWs 15 - 18 when he scored 5 and assisted 1. Those performances did include matches against Wolves, Spurs and Brighton so perhaps he and Liverpool have some favored opposition...
Of course within all of this is the question of Mo Salah. Last year's must have finished with an incredible 344 FPL points. Since joining Liverpool in 2017, he's never scored fewer than 211 points in a season but that record looks likely to go with his current haul of 85 points.
Yes, there has been an AFCON that interrupted his season but still, Liverpool's main man hasn't scored a Premier League goal since GW10!
While he is owned by 14% of teams, you've got to imagine that most of those sides haven't been updated for several months. Even with the run of fixtures Liverpool have, he's only been transferred in by 12k of the 12 million teams involved this season which puts his currently popularity on a par with Brentford's Sepp van den Berg - how the mighty have fallen.
Differentials to consider
Nico O’Reilly - You'd suspect he won't be a differential for much longer! Just over 8% ownership at the end of GW27 where he scored twice having also netted the week before. He was only just behind VVD as the 2nd most transferred in player for this week and City's fixture list looks favorable over the coming weeks.
Schade or Ouattara - Brentford have a good run of games coming up. Most sides will therefore be looking to Thiago to continue his impressive season but there is also the option to double up on Brentford attackers. Schade is back from his suspension while Ouattara has had an impressive first season for the Bees albeit in the shadow of Thiago. The Burkinabé forward has notched 10 goal involvements from 18 starts and at a price of just £5.9mil and ownership of 2.8% could be an excellent buy for the short term.
Bournemouth picking up steam - After a fantastic start to the season, the Cherries struggled through the later part of 2025 but have started 2026 a lot better. If that form continues they have a real shot at qualifying for Europe. With Semenyo having left, the only player in their side who isn't a big differential is Senesi at 16% ownership. Bournemouth could well be a club that managers want to revist for the last quarter of the season.