Welcome back to Hive FPL. After a short hiatus for the FA Cup the Premier League returns and with plenty to play for!
Things are also heating up in the Classic and H2H Hive Leagues and it's there that we'll begin our analysis.
Hive Classic League
While it remains tight at the top, Blue Mooners and Sutter Kane are beginning to pull away from the pack. 21 point gaps are hardly insurmountable but with just 9 game weeks to go, if anyone is going to challenge for the title they are going to need to make their move pretty soon.
The other important factor in the race for the title and the top 10 is going to be chip usage.
You can see from the table above that the common chip strategy in place has been to use the triple captain, mainly deployed during the recent double game week, while maintaining everything else for later in the season.
However, a few teams have broken with that tactic and gone in early with their remaining chips. Again, while it's not impossible to have strong weeks without chips in play, experience suggests it'll be tough to catch teams who have those bonuses up their sleeves.
In fact, teams like Ekeka4 will probably be more concerned with the 10 sides immediately below them who all have more chips at their disposal than than they do. It's going to be very tough to hang onto 3rd place in those circusmtances.
Similarly the top 2 come into the final straight with 3 and 4 free transfers up their respective sleeves, suggesting that they won't need to deploy their wildcard or free hit chips in an emergency anytime soon.
By contrast, 7 of the 10 teams behind them only have a single free transfer for GW30. With blank game weeks approaching, it's highly likely the chasing pack will have to use some chips, or take a points hit, or risk having under 11 players scoring in a game week.
Division 1 H2H
I'd say there are probably 5 teams in the chase for the Division 1 title but the top 2 are firm favourites ahead of the chasing pack.
Likodra beat 2nd placed BlockchainFPL in GW27 but have since lost their last 2 matches, allowing the defending champions to cut the 9 point lead they held down to just 3.
BlockchainFPL have another crunch match coming up this weekend when they take on 4th placed Hiveheadz with Likodra taking on the same opposition in GW31.
The rest of the hopefuls don't have much margin for error left, it's not impossible that a side from 3rd placed down could make a late charge but you'd imagine they can only afford at most a single defeat from now on.
At the bottom things are very tight!
Usually when we get to this point in the season, there are a couple of sides who have been cut adrift and would need a miracle to stay up.
However, that's not the case this season! At present, it's looking like a 7 team battle to avoid a bottom 5 finish which would lead to relegation.
There is certainly the possibility that the number could decrease in coming weeks. Particularly with the massive game at the very foot of the table between Vickoly FC and Legion Fc this weekend.
Defeat for Legion would leave a 6 point gap between them and the next side and at least an 8 point gap between them and safety. Again, not impossible but very tough for a side that has only won 9 fixtures all season.
Next week (GW31) is similarly significant with Spero FC playing Vickoly FC and samostically facing Legion. Look out for a full analysis on those games...
Division 2 H2H
I think it's safe to say that Blue Mooners are going up and that the current top 4 are all in a very strong position to finish in top 5 and gain promotion.
It's what happens next that is the real fascinating part!
As you can see, I've had to zoom out quite a long way to capture the next part of the Division 2 table and even then, I'm not sure I've done it justice when you consider that a team like Emeka4 (3rd in the Classic League) sits in 24th place in Division 2!
What it all points towards is the exceptionally high quality of the sides in Division 2 this season, a fact mentioned in several previous blogs.
At present, the top 6 teams in the Classic League are all in Division 2 H2H so getting yourself promoted this season is going to be even tougher than usual.
While Division 2 has that strong core of players, it also has 15-20 teams that aren't active, haven't made any transfers, changes to their starting XI or captain for some time. It means they routinely don't have XI players scoring points for them in any given week and so should be easy pickings for the teams who are still managing their squads.
Promotion hopefuls fixture difficulty GW30 to GW31
Here then is the Division 2 H2H Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for the top 24 teams.
FPL regulars will be familiar with this tool on the official site. I've simplified it a bit for our purposes by assigning just 3 ratings (bear in mind home & away isn't a factor fantasy sides need to worry about).
Hard - Current rank 1 to 24
Medium - Current rank 25 to 49
Easy - Current rank 50 or below
The above shows us that teams like Hasaaland and Murima have a run fixtures coming up that they really should be confident in winning!
By contrast you've got sides like Large in the Rear, Tengo Rangers, Racibo, Garuda XI and Top 10k? whose chances of making the top 5 are likely to rest on how well they do against the 3 or 4 other teams that they play within the top 24 over the same period
Division 1
GW29 Results
Division 2
GW29 Results
GW30 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips for GW30
Captain conundrum*
*This title is not intended to infringe upon Marvel Comics copyright of this character whose super power is an overwhelming sense of confusion
Some weeks your FPL captain pretty much picks itself and others, like this week, you're spoilt for choice.
I imagine that a lot of managers have been mulling over who to select, changed their minds, changed it back again and may yet be tempted into a last minute switch after consulting the tea leaves at the bottom of their Saturday morning cuppa.
The primary candidates are
Haaland - back to fitness, the leading scorer in the Prem despite not hitting the highs of former times and a penalty taker. West Ham are much improved of late but still have a propensity for conceeding goals (5 vs Liverpool, 3 vs Chelsea and a 2-2 draw against Brentford in the cup earlier in the week).
Fernandes - the form player in the league at the moment. He gives managers the possibility of points from so many different sources. Open play goals, dead-ball goals (inc pens), assists and defcons. Villa are in shocking form and really need a result at Old Trafford to stabilise their bid for the Champions League.
Ekitike - On his day, capable of putting up some truly massive numbers. His 15 goal contributions have come in just 9 matches so when he's hot, he's hot. On present form, he could be luke warm and probably add to that tally against Spurs.
Thiago - Home match against bottom side Wolves and a real chance for Brentford to stake their claim as 'the best of the rest' in the hunt for 7th place.
Gabriel - Not the sexy route to points but a clean sheet at home to Everton, defcon points and of course his threat from set-pieces mean you can't ignore the Arsenal centre-back as a possible captain.
As we enter the final stretch of the 25/26 season are you tempted to make bold choices in a bid to close the gap or are you going to sit and wait for your opponents to slip up first?
Transfers are not just for Christmas
Or something like that? I think the point I'm trying to make is that any changes you make in GW30 have to bear in mind the blanks in GW31 and then the loooong break in Premier League fixtures that follows.
It's tempting for example to look at the likes of Sarr and Strand-Larson for an in form Palace team at home to Leeds. Both have low ownership and could therefore prove great differentials this weekend but they're not going to play next weekend.
Similarly City players like Cherki and O'Reilly look appealing options for the match versus West Ham but City then have the blank in GW31 and then matches against Chelsea and Arsenal to follow.
If you're looking at transfers that can make a difference over a longer period then I'd suggest gravitating towards 3 teams - Brentford, Fulham and Forest. These sides have a more appealing run of fixtures over the next 3 or 4 game weeks and some players with low ownership.
However, even then, you've got to bear in mind that after GW31 there is a 3 week break in the Premier League season due to internationals and the FA Cup. It suggests to me, as boring as it might sound, that doing nothing might again be the best course of action.
Mao Zedong and Sun Tzu must reads for any FPL manager
That being said, you might be one of those teams competing in the Hive leagues who feel like it's now or never to make your move and that in fact, the likely inaction from your opponents is the perfect time to attack! As Mao Zedong once said, based on the tactics of Sun Tzu's the Art of War - the enemy camps, we harass!