Welcome back to the Hive FPL for GW31 of the the 25/26 Premier League season.
It's been a chasening experience for many English clubs competing in Europe this week and they'll probably be glad to return to the grind of the Premier League.
I say grind because in comparison to some of the scoring that we saw in the Champions League last 16, the Premier League has been struggling to capture the imagination of late. There were only 16 goals scored in round 30, with half of those coming in 2 matches (United v Villa and Brentford v Wolves) while at the same time we had 3 nil-nil draws.
Will this week be any better?
Of course, GW31 comes with the added challenge of having only 8 fixtures for FPL teams to select from with City, Arsenal, Palace and Wolves not involved again until after the Easter break.
More on that later and how you might overcome that issue. First let's revist our head to head leagues to see how the teams faired in the battle for promotion and survival.
Division 1 H2H
At the top of the league, Likodra won a low scoring thriller against Nonso. Their score of 32 was the 2nd lowest of the round so you'd have to say it's luck rather judgement that is keeping them clear at the top.
BlockchainFPL squeaked past Hiveheadz by just a solitary point to keep up the pressure at the top. That defeat for Hiveheadz sees them drop down to 5th with a 10 point gap to the top which will be very tough to close now.
At the bottom of the league wins for bottom placed Legion FC against 2nd bottom Vickoly as well as victory for Spero FC and Hungry Lions keep it very congested in the race to avoid relegation. There are just 5 points separating the bottom 6 teams with 8 rounds to play!
Featured match GW31 - Spero FC v Vickoly FC
Another massive fixture at the bottom of the Division 1 16th place take on 19th place.
It's worth remembering that Spero FC are the reigning Hive FPL Classic League champions. It'd be fair to say that 25/26 has been a tough year in comparison but a win in this fixture could move them out of the relegation spots.
Vickoly have been ever present in Division 1. So far, no side relegated has managed to get themselves back up. Prevention is more effective than the cure and a win here is crucial to avoid them being left 8 points adrift of relegation.
Spero's squad has been consistently out-performing Vickoly in recent game weeks and more generally, they have by far the stronger differentials.
However, GW31 does come with the added confusion of those blanks! Spero FC are without 3 of their squad as a result while Vickoly FC are missing 5 players. When you also consider that Matty Cash is a doubt for Villa then it all points towards Vickoly needing to play a chip. Free Hit would be the most logical choice but they could opt to Wildcard if they fancy a more permanent change to their under-performing players.
Knowing that, do Spero respond with their own chip or are they confident in the 12 players they've got to get the job done?
Division 2 H2H
At the top of Division 2 there was a shock defeat for 2nd placed Sutter Kane who slip to 4th with a 3 point cushion over the side in 6th.
There is a ferocious battle in the chasing pack that saw a number of sides go up against each other.
Big wins for Tengo Rangers, Racibo, Garuda and Emeka4 keep their hopes of promotion very much alive. There is still just a 4 point gap between 5th place and 15th place suggesting this fight will go down to the wire!
Featured match GW31 - Racibo v Garuda XI
Last week, we published a fixture difficulty rating for the upcoming matches in Division 2. Both these sides overcame opponents ranked as 'difficult' in GW30 and must now look to build on those wins with victory against another challenger for promotion.
Defeat wouldn't be terminal for either side but it'd certainly make it very difficult to grab one of those automatic promotion spots!
Again, the first place to start is with how many players each team will be missing due to blanks. Racibo have 3 unavailable while, Gardua have 4 + Mukiele who is rated 50/50 to play in the derby this weekend.
Racibo's moves in the transfer market up until this point suggest that they might not be planning to/need to play a chip in GW31. Most prominent was their decision to sell Haaland last week.
Not only does that ensure their front 3 are all likely to start but it also provides them with a massive budget for the remainder of the season - £6mil currently burning a hole in their pocket! With just 1 free transfer for the week, they can't make massive alterations to their side without taking a points hit (or using a chip) but they can bring in any other player to strengthen an already decent looking squad.
By contrast, Garudu XI have serious issues in defence with no Gabriel, Timber or Guehi and the aforementioned Mukiele a doubt, their only 'guaranteed' starter at the back is Bournemouth's Hill.
With just a solitary free transfer to use then they can't fix that problem without taking a points hit. Equally, they may feel that their double Arsenal defenders and Guehi are a viable tactic for the remainder of the season and therefore any short-term transfer will only cost them later on. It all points to a side that will need to use their free hit chip in order to get XI players out on the pitch this weekend.
To free hit or not to free hit? That is the question
It's highly likely that we'll some managers deploy their free hits for GW31 on account of the blanks for the 4 aforementioned sides.
If so, what would be good strategy for using it and which teams/players should you target?
To sum up, it's difficult and so as with any good human in this brave new world, when I come up against a problem that I can't immediately solve, I simply defer to AI to work it out for me.
Here's what the hivemind suggests for your free hit...
I'll be honest, I'm not convinced by it's selections!
Several of the larger clubs with higher profile, more popular players (Gordon, Palmer, Joao Pedro) are coming off the back of European matches.
As far as the likes of Newcastle and Chelsea are concerned, their European dreams ended in fairly spectacular fashion. Their focus is very much on the league, but how will they respond to those chastening defeats to the continent's elite?
By contrast, Liverpool did progress to the last 8 of the Champions League but what impact might that have on their Premier League team selection? FPL managers were burnt last week when Slot left the likes of Ekitike on the bench for a game against Spurs. Could the same happen on the trip to Brighton?
Aston Villa's league form has fallen off the edge of the cliff and no one is quite sure when they'll hit the bottom. On paper, a home match versus West Ham looks appealing but the fact remains that the Hammers have lost just 1 of their last 6 while Villa have only won one in that same period. They've kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 so Martinez in goal is a curious choice by the AI!
All in all, the fixtures don't fill me with confidence that there's going to be a huge amount of attacking points on offer. Is a 3-4-3 formation the best way to go?
United have been a consistent source of goals and assists recently and Fernandes would be a certainty for any free hit team but the Red Devils travel to Bournemouth who seem to have gone from a team full of attacking intent and general chaos to one of the most boring sides in the land. 3 of their last 4 games have finished goalless and only 1 of their last 7 matches have had over 2.5 goals.
Similarly Fulham haven't scored in any of their last 3 games (league and cup) so while you'd fancy them against Burnley, it's hardly a sure thing. The fact that the AI is suggesting you captain Harry Wilson probably sums up the scarcity of options for attacking returns.
The AI team has broadly ignored Leeds vs Brentford and Spurs vs Forest. Is it right to do so?
The Bees have been involved in some high scoring affairs of late, especially away from home with their recent 4-3 win at Burnley following on from their 3-2 win at Newcastle.
Leeds have a decent strike force albeit that they tend to blow a bit hot and cold but they are up against a defense that has conceded 10 in their last 6 matches. I think they'll get more chances than the likes Joao Pedro at Everton.
Neither Forest or Spurs look like slick operators in attack. Only Wolves have scored fewer goals than Forest in the league this season but the Tricky Trees have scored in 9 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.
There is the temptation to think that both these sides would be so terrified of the repercussions of losing this match that it'll dissolve into a turgid affair of men behind the ball waiting on the opposition to make a mistake. An early goal though might open up the whole game!
Ultimately whether you choose to free hit this week will come down to the following
How many players are you missing from Arsenal, City, etc?
Do you see value in using the chip now (see above)?
What's your chip strategy for the remainder of the season and is their a better opportunity to use the free hit in 1 of the remaining 7 weeks?
On the last point, managers need to bear in mind the double Gameweek 33, blank Gameweek 34 (FA Cup semi-finalists), double Gameweek 36 and blank Gameweek 37 (FA Cup finalists) that are still to come.