Welcome back to the Hive FPL for game week 8 of the season!
How do you survive international breaks without Premier League football and FPL? I guess you could watch the international matches themselves but I genuinely can't remember the last time I managed to stay awake through the full 90mins of an England match. Where's the intrigue? Where's the danger of not qualifying?
Anyway, the alternative is to watch countless youtube videos on the sport and I came across this offering by Adam Clery earlier in the week.
In it, Clery claims to have identified a new tactical trend sweeping the Premier League which nobody has noticed - defensive midfielders or '6s' are getting forward more often this season.
From a purely statistical basis, that much would appear to be true and I very much doubt any FPL manager who pays even a bit of attention to the game hasn't noticed that already which means I was already moderately pissed off about the title of the video before the real content began.
Caicedo is the 2nd highest scoring midfielder in the game at the moment with 45 points which means he's almost half way to achieving the 98 points he got last season, his PB in the FPL.
Gravenberch is not far behind with 37 points including 4 goal involvements in his last 6 matches. He had only 5 goal involvements in 50 Premier League appearances prior to that.
You've then got the likes Tottenham's Paulinha and Arsenal's Zubumendi on 30 and 32 points respectively thanks to a couple of goals each this season. Bear in mind that neither of these players have started every game for their club this season and yet they aren't far behind Mo Salah's tally of 34 points.
Of course beyond just the goals these players were always likely to bring in points courtesy of the new Defcon system. Caicedo, a player I had in several of my pre-season drafts, already has 8 DC points which was to be expected and certainly what I'd have been banking on rather than his 3 goals. Caicedo has never scored more than 1 Premier League goal in a season prior to this.
So the question is, does this represent a statistical blip or is it genuinely a tactical trend that you as an FPL manager should be looking to jump on?
I generally enjoy Adam Cleary's content but to be frank, I thought this was one of his weaker videos with an over-reliance on the very top line numbers i.e. goals scored and not much analysis to prove that this is a 'tactical innovation' as the video claims.
Take for example some of the goals and the game situations that these players have scored in.
Paulinha scored his first goal of the season against Man City after a horrendous error from City keeper Trafford with Spurs pressing high with a man to man system that regularly saw their defensive minded players popping up in very advanced positions as they followed their 'man' deep into opposition territory. That tactic could and in this case did result in him finding himself in the box with a goal scoring opportunity but he certainly wasn't 'crashing the box' in the manner that is suggested in the video and Spurs haven't deployed that tactic since.
His 2nd goal came against Wolves in the 93rd minute of the game with Spurs losing 1-0 at home. At this point 'tactics' have gone out of the window and we are in desperation time, the last roll of the dice, the send up the keeper and pray to as many Gods that you can name, phase of the game . It's not really tactical, it's certainly not an innovation.
Zubumendi's 2 goals, both in the same game, came from set-pieces. No great surprise there as we're talking about Arsenal! The first was an absolute peach of a volley and if you score 1 of those a season, you're already bucking the statistical trend. The 2nd was a header from a nicely worked free kick.
Zubumendi has an xG per 90mins of 0.04 which translates to a goal every 25 games and that's probably about right for a player who pops up on the edge of the box and gets involved from set-plays but is certainly not making a large number of runs beyond his forwards. If he scores another 2 goals this season he'd would be massively over-performing his numbers.
Gravenberch's goal against Everton is certainly an example of a deeper lying midfielder making a run into the area or to use the parlance of our times 'crashing the box'. However, that represented the only occasion that he touched the ball in the opposition's penalty area in that match and in the other 6 games he's played in the Premier League this season, he's only been in that position in 1 other fixture, away at Burnley.
It suggests then that Liverpool's use of Gravenberch in this manner is limited to matches in which they are dominating possession against an opposition setting up with a low block and 2 banks of 4/5 players to break through.
Having your defensive players whether that's the 6 or the centre-backs stepping up and looking to break those lines is not a tactical innovation. It's been the default setting, particularly for the sides at the top of Premier League, for some time and a necessary way to score against well organised teams looking to grid out a result. Long gone are the days where your defenders are there simply to defend.
You'd also expect Gravenberch to be pretty good at breaking into the box on occasion because that's his natural game. He's converted from a box to box player to a number 6. I'd imagine that Slot and the Liverpool coaching staff have to spend more time working with him to curb some of those natural instincts.
Of course, the question is, can Liverpool really afford for their number 6 to be making runs into the box on a regular occasion? The answer, based on their recent defensive form is no, particularly not against opposition who have the players to hurt the champions at the other end of the pitch.
Gravenberch had no touches in the opposition box this season against Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal and Palace. Will he be encouraged to make runs from deep against United, City and Villa who make up 3 of Liverpool's next 4 opponents. That's probably the question that FPL managers should ask and it further weakens the argument that this is a tactical trend moving through the Premier League as opposed to a necessity in certain game situations, as it has been for some time.
It's a similar story for Caicedo.
His first of the season against West Ham comes from a corner and a terrible piece of goalkeeping and defending. No great surprise, I think the Chelsea under 8s would fancy their chances from a set-piece against West Ham in that match.
His second and third are both strikes from outside the box. Not disimilar then to the type of goals that Paulinha and Zubumendi scored. Again, lovely finishes but not the type of goal that's being alluded too in the video.
Given that over half of these goals came from outside the box then you could argue that the trend here is for these players to take on more efforts from range, something we know has been on the decline in world football over the last couple of decades. In the 2006/07 Premier League season, just shy of a quarter of all goals (22.3%) came from outside the box by 2023/24 season that had fallen to 12.4%.
There is nothing in the stats for the 25/26 season to suggest that this is changing. Last season, only 4 sides ended the campaign having taken on 5 or more shots from outside the box per 90mins (City, Bournemouth, Chelsea and United), this year we've only got 3 sides doing so which once again include United and Bournemouth as well as Liverpool.
Conclusion - it's far too early with far too small a sample size to make any definitive assumption but at the moment it looks more like a statistical blip than a tactical innovation and therefore I'd be cautious about jumping in on the 4 players above as their ownership and of course prices begin to rise.
Division 1
GW7 Results
GW8 Fixtures
Division 2
GW7 Results
GW8 Fixtures
GW8 Player Picks and Tips
Here are our tips for transfers and team selections this week
Liverpool and City at home. Salah or Haaland?
We'll start with the obvious, Liverpool at home to United and City entertaining Everton look on paper good fixtures to target points from.
The temptation of course is to think back to the 7-0 thrashing that Liverpool handed out to United in this fixture just a couple of years ago and think that this will be a guarented points bonanza. However, the Merseyside club haven't had it so easy since then with just 1 win against United in the proceeding 2 and half years including draws in each of their matches at Anfield.
I guess what FPL managers have to consider here is whether historical results trump current form because if you give greater weight to the former then you'd want Mo Salah in your side!
He has 13 goals and 6 assists from 15 Premier League appearances against United. He's only blanked once against this opposition in his last 9 outings, scoring 12 and creating a further 6 during that period i.e. he's averaging 2 goal involvements a game.
United's defence has looked weak on the road this season. Is this the fixture to get Salah going in 25/26? He still appears in about a third of FPL squads. One way or another, I expect another significant shift in that come GW9.
If you are one of the near 2 million players to have sold Salah this season then chances are that you've replaced him with Erling Haaland. He has 4 goals in 4 games against Everton and has blanked just once so far this season making him the obvious choice for the captain's armband in GW8.
Load up on Arsenal players
The Gunners have had a tough start to the season but now come into a period where you would expect them to be getting 3 points a game, scoring plenty of goals and keeping clean sheets. In other words, an FPL managers dream!
I'd imagine that lots of managers will have at least 1 Arsenal defender in their side for this run of fixtures with many more doubling up.
In attack, Saka is back and with the likes of Palmer out injured and Salah struggling for form he might represent the only viable option for a truly premium price midfielder.
A cheaper option could be Eze who has provided an assist in 3 of his last 4 Premier League appearances and recorded xG of 0.49 and 0.42 in his last 2 matches suggesting a first league goal for his new side is just around the corner. With Odegaard almost certainly missing the next couple of matches, if not longer, then Eze is far more likely to get game time and far more likely to play through the middle.
Gyökeres has not exactly set the league on fire but he has looked more effective against weaker opposition. He's scored against Leeds and Forest and really should have scored against West Ham having struggled to get into any of the other matches against better opposition. This might be the run of fixtures he's looking for to silence some of the doubters.
Alison injury opens the door for Mamardashvili
With confirmation that Alison is unlikely to appear for Liverpool again until after the next international break then the temptation must be to look at brining in his understudy Marmite-da-astonvilla and then for bloggers to practice spelling his name.
The Georgian arrives in the Premier League with a reputation as one of the best young keepers in Europe but this will be a test not only of his skills but also his temperament sitting as the last line of defence for a side that's looked shaky at the back all season and plays against one of their greatest rivals this weekend.
For their part, United are likely to test him! No side has taken more shots in the league this season than United who also lead the stats in regards shots from outside the box in 25/26 (5.8 per 90mins).
While I think they'll struggle to hit 19 shots against Liverpool on Sunday, I've no doubt that the likes of Fernandes and Mbeumo will be keen to give him a few early sighters. Especially as he comes off the back of conceding 4 goals against Turkey during the international break.
At £4.3mil he does represent excellent value for a starting keeper of a big club so probably worth the gamble and potentially helps free up some cash to invest elsewhere in the squad.