We have completed the Knockout matches and we have the final 8 teams for the quarter finals! 7 matches remaining and which AI would out predict the other one?
So I wrote a post earlier this week (here) about using AI to predict Euro 2024 matches, and I discussed whether the predictions were accurate or not.
And it wasn't just me who found this interesting - there were a few comments who thought this was something that they wanted to follow. So I thought, why not let me continue with this?
So here's what I would do:
- To spare you guys all the AI generated analysis, I have removed their analysis and focused purely on the scorelines
- As usual, I would ask ChatGPT and Meta AI on the day of the matches itself so that they can provide their prediction based on the latest(?) information they have
- Of course, we should have a competition as to which AI is better in predicting the outcome of the matches. So I have come up with a scoring system: 1 point for guessing the correct team (or draw), 3 points for guessing the exact scoreline!
- Update: From knockout round onwards, given the complexity of extra time and penalty shootouts, both AIs will just be required to pick the winner. 2 points to be awarded for the correct guess!
Have put in some effort to organise all the data within the table below. (The first 4 matches were NA because I started this experiment late.)
| Match | ChatGPT | Meta AI | Actual Score | Keeping Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs Scotland | NA | NA | 5-1 | |
| Hungary vs Switzerland | NA | NA | 1-3 | |
| Spain vs Croatia | NA | NA | 3-0 | |
| Italy vs Albania | NA | NA | 2-1 | |
| Poland vs Netherlands | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Slovenia vs Denmark | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Serbia vs England | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Romania vs Ukraine | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | X |
| Belgium vs Slovakia | 2-0 | 3-0 | 0-1 | X |
| Austria vs France | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Turkey vs Georgia | 2-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Portugal vs Czech Republic | 3-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Croatia vs Albania | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2-2 | X |
| Germany vs Hungary | 3-1 | 3-0 | 2-0 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Scotland vs Switzerland | 1-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Slovenia vs Serbia | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Denmark vs England | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Spain vs Italy | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1-0 | X |
| Slovakia vs Ukraine | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | ChatGPT +3 |
| Poland vs Austria | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-3 | X |
| Netherlands vs France | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-0 | X |
| Georgia vs Czech Republic | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Meta AI +3 |
| Turkey vs Portugal | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-3 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Belgium vs Romania | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Switzerland vs Germany | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | X |
| Scotland vs Hungary | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0-1 | X |
| Albania vs Spain | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1 |
| Croatia vs Italy | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Meta AI +3 |
| France vs Poland | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | X |
| Netherlands vs Austria | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-3 | X |
| Denmark vs Serbia | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Meta AI +1 |
| England vs Slovenia | 4-0 | 3-0 | 0-0 | X |
| Slovakia vs Romania | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3 |
| Ukraine vs Belgium | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | X |
| Georgia vs Portugal | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-0 | X |
| Czech Republic vs Turkey | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | X |
| Knockout | ||||
| Switzerland vs Italy | Italy | Italy | Switzerland | X |
| Germany vs Denmark | Germany | Denmark | Germany | ChatGPT +2 |
| England vs Slovakia | England | Slovakia | England | ChatGPT +2 |
| Spain vs Georgia | Spain | Georgia | Spain | ChatGPT +2 |
| France vs Belgium | France | Belgium | France | ChatGPT +2 |
| Portugal vs Slovenia | Portugal | Slovenia | Portugal | ChatGPT +2 |
| Romania vs Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | Netherlands | ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2 |
| Austria vs Turkey | Austria | Turkey | Turkey | Meta AI +2 |
| Quarter Finals | ||||
| Spain vs Germany | Spain | Spain | ||
| Portugal vs France | France | France | ||
| England vs Switzerland | England | England | ||
| Netherlands vs Turkey | Netherlands | Netherlands |
Current Score: ChatGPT 31 (+12) Meta AI 27 (+4)
An awesome gamble on upsets by Meta AI failed terribly this time. Meta AI only got 2 winners out of 8 for the knockout stages while Chat GPT went for the favourites and got 6 winners. So with 12 more points, ChatGPT now leads Meta AI 31 to 27!
So who did they predict for quarter finals? Turns out both AIs went for the exact 4 "favourites" to advance to the semi finals. Will they be right or will there be upsets? At least I am 100% certain ChatGPT will maintain its lead in this competition.
Looks like there is still a lot of room for improvement for these AI machines. So far, the conclusion is these are just useful references and one should not rely on these AIs to bet and hope to strike it rich. Hahaha.
So finally, which AI do you think will predict the Euro 2024 scores better? Let me know if you have other comments too!