UFC 295: Aspinall v Pavlovich [11.11.2023]
UFC 295 was supposed to to be headlined by Jon Jones, arguably THE MMA goat, versus Stipe Miocic, the heavyweight MMA goat.
Two weeks out, Jon Bones Jones tore a pectoral muscle off the bone in his training camp.
The matchmakers decided to activate the planned back-up fighter Sergei Pavlovich and called up Tom Aspinall to fill in for the Madison Square Garden card in New York.
Sergei is currently the second ranked heavyweight, Tom is ranked fourth.
Jon Jones is the champion, Ciryl Gane is first and Stipe Miocic is third.
Many observers consider this to be a much better fight than the original headliner. Jones versus Miocic always had the feel of a retirement fight for at least one of them. Miocic will be 42 years old when the fight happens, and the Jones fight seems to be one of the last things he can accomplish in this sport. Jones has hinted in the past that there is nothing more for him to do than to fight Stipe.
Tom Aspinall's Undefeated Finish Streak to Start UFC Career
Fight in Numbers
Bloody Elbow put up a poll on Twitter right at the announcement date:
Who wins the Interim heavyweight title at UFC 295?
— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) October 25, 2023
- Tom Aspinall
- Sergei Pavlovich pic.twitter.com/p6URYDdW27
The fans were split 50:50:
| Votes [#] | Percentage [%] | |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Pavlovic | 76 | 50,3 |
| Tom Aspinall | 75 | 49,7 |
The voters overwhelmingly agreed that it will be a short fight. Either Pavlovich by KO or Aspinall by Submission. Aspinall has the least time per fight in the Octagon out of all heavyweights. Pavlovich has the second shortest time per fight.
Most betting lines have also converged and show Tom as a slight favorite.
Sergei Pavlovich | UFC Resume – 2022
| Sergei Pavlovich | Tom Aspinall | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height [m] | 1,91 | 1,96 |
| Reach [m] | 2,13 | 1,98 |
| MMA record] | 19 (18 wins, 15 KOs) | 16 (13 wins, 10 KOs, 3 submissions) |
| Avg. fight time [min] | 2:23 | 2:19 |
Fights of Interest
The MSG card promises a great night of fights. Here is a selection of bouts to watch:
- Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka v Alex Pereira
- Heavyweight: Sergei Pavlovich v Tom Aspinall
- Women's Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern v Jéssica Andrade
- Lightweight: Matt Frevola v Benoît Saint-Denis
- Featherweight: Diego Lopes v Pat Sabatini
- Women's Strawweight: Tabatha Ricci v Loopy Godinez
- Lightweight: Nazim Sadykhov v Viacheslav Borshchev
- Lightweight: Jared Gordon v Mark Madsen
Breakdowns
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall | Dan Hardy Breakdown, The War Room Ep. 287
Henry Cejudo may be cringe, but he has been a good fight analyst in the past. Here is his take:
SERGEI PAVLOVICH vs TOM ASPINALL | Who's Gonna Win?
Exclusive! Alexander Volkanovski and Dan Hooker Breakdown UFC 295
PAVLOVICH vs ASPINALL | UFC 295 Countdown
Who is going to win?
List of UFC events: Wikipedia
UFC fighter rankings: Wikipedia
MMA odds: BestFightOdds
Fighter history: Tapology
UFC ranking page: UFC
Vote for my witness: @blue-witness
- Aspinall wins by KO/TKO/Submission
- Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO/Submission
- Aspinall wins by Decision
- Pavlovich wins by Decision
- Other
Answer the question at dpoll.io.