North Carolina House Republicans Move to Shorten Early Voting
On Feb 5, 2025 - Republicans in the North Carolina State House filed a bill to reduce the early voting period to six (days). House Bill 66 entitled "AN ACT TO REDUCE THE EARLY VOTING PERIOD TO THE SECOND MONDAY BEFORE THE ELECTION". The Bill changes exactly two words in NC General Statute,G.S.164-166.40(b) - striking "third Thursday" and replacing it with "second Monday". The Primary Sponsors of the H66 are Representatives Gable, Tyson, Kidwell, and Scott. Cosponsors of H66 include Representatives Almond, Biggs, Branson, McNeely, Penny, Pike, Strickland, Ward, White, and Willis. (Bolded text indicates a Representative whose District falls party or entirely in Johnston County).
Impact on Early Voting in Johnston County
In Johnston County which has not historically voted on Sundays, H66 would reduce the number of early voting days from 15 to six(6). Some counties in North Carolina do utilize Sunday for early voting, but traditionally even in those counties Sundays are not remarkably high volume days for voting. The calendar below shows the current early voting schedule, and the proposed changes.
Patterns in Early Voting in Primary and General Elections
Utilizing the early voting data available at Vote Tracker from the John Locke Foundation and total vote from the Election Dashboard of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, we can observe some distinct patterns. First, participation in Primary Elections in North Carolina and Johnston County is a relatively a small fraction of voters. In Johnston County in the 2024 Primary Election approximately a third of the the total vote was cast early voting. For early voting most of it comes during the final week of early voting with peaks on the last Friday and Saturday.
There is some difference between voting patterns in the Primary and General Elections. In North Carolina, and Johnston County 60%+ of the total vote comes on Election Day. This changes in the General Election, where more people in total vote, and more people vote early. In the General Election only about 20% of the total vote is cast on Election Day itself. In the graph below from CarolinaElections.com we can observe that during General Election early voting in 2024, daily early voting, and early voting during the initial week were both higher compared to the early voting in the 2024 Primary Election in Johnston County. Reducing the early voting period would increase the volumes of votes cast in the proposed six-day window, assuming voter participation rates remain unchanged.
How Many Early Voting Days are Sufficient?
The North Carolina Democratic Party, and the JoCo Democrats posted a graphic on Facebook labeling H66 a "dangerous bill" .
On local discussion forums some commentors have called it attempted "voter suppression". Is this is a broadly compelling argument with the options of voting by absentee ballot, and six (6) days of voting at early voting sites? In Johnston County the number of early voting sites were expanded in the 2024 General Election, to nine(9) locations distributed across Johnston County.
(Image Source- Johnston County Board of Elections)
Some election purists insist that all voting should be done in person, on Election Day. Across the world, many elections are conducted on a single day. Debate will obviously continue, but it is likely that there is adequate support in the General Assembly to pass H66. Will Governor Stein veto the bill, and can Republicans find the support to override that veto is an entirely different question. With six (6) days, and nine (9) locations for early voting the argument for inconvenience may be stronger, than the case for suppression. The cost savings to Johnston County and the State of North Carolina may be substantially greater than the marginal impacts to convenience or participation. Arguments for an against H66 will obviously be clarified and better quantified as the bill advances through committees in North Carolina's General Assembly.