As I have already explained in previous posts on this subject, we know that the price of any product is based on the supply of the product and the demand of its consumers.
With the pandemic of covid-19 the price of oil had a considerable drop last year, however it has been seen how the normality of humanity has wanted to resume its traditional form, although it is true that the different variants of covid-19 has slowed a little normality, it is also true that the vaccination processes along with herd immunity puts in the environment a recovery of normality in the use of transport and tourism trips, which is why gradually the demand for oil will go up.
Perhaps many of us think that it is not a reason to increase prices due to the gradual increase in demand, however we are seeing some warlike conflicts such as those of Russia with Ukraine, also this country (Russia) has another conflict with Kazakhstan. All these conflicts between Russia and these countries could make Russia unable to comply with an increase in oil production as demand increases worldwide.
Currently, the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) is demanding its member countries to increase their production quotas, in this sense, Russia has found it very difficult to increase the production demanded by OPEC.
It is not only the Russian country that is influential in the possible high oil prices, which are not far from reaching the value of 100 dollars per barrel, it is also the impossibility of production due to other war conflicts such as Yemen's attacks on the United Arab Emirates, especially considering that the United Arab Emirates are the third largest oil producer in the world.
In conclusion, I believe that if two scenarios occur simultaneously this year, such as an increased demand for oil and at the same time an impossibility to increase or maintain oil production, we could see a scenario where oil prices reach 100 dollars or more per barrel of oil.
In the event of this scenario of having a barrel of oil costing 100 dollars, the following question should be asked:
Which countries would be in the capacity to increase oil production and take advantage of it to grow their economy?
It is a good opportunity to grow the economy of those countries that have the capacity to increase their oil production and grow their economy in the short and medium term, we only need to look at these possible scenarios and see the capacity of some oil producing countries.