HIVE POWER UP DAY 1.jan 2026 and #HIVE TA 🚀

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Happy New Year and Happy Power Up Day! 😃 Time to recap the last cycle and outline the roadmap for the years ahead. If history repeats, Hive holders are in for a slow and patience‑testing bear phase — just like last time.

I hit my 20k HP target for 2025 and rebalanced a bit. At the 2021 peak I held ~3k HP after taking profit between $1–3, flipped the bear market, and ended up around 25k Hive at the 2025 top. This time I’ll hold more HP through the bear, currently 19k, and continue my monthly power‑up posts. Long‑term I’m aiming for 50–100k HP by next cycle.

2026 goal: 20k HP, 1k HBD, and a larger trading stack.😃

“Not a classic PUD — this is a cycle log. Sometimes you power down to power up bigger. Same rhythm as last bear, just with more experience. This post is a recap of the previous Hive cycle and a roadmap for how I plan to navigate the next one.”

Weekly Chart — How the Cycle Played Out

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If you've been following along, I think we did well! In 2024–2025 we mapped the descending triangle, identified the bottom, and tracked the multi‑month accumulation (blue circle). Then came the A‑rally to $0.7 (yellow circle), followed by the B‑wave correction back to the (green circle) in 2025.

I expected a final C‑rally like last cycle, but it never came — which meant I didn’t reach my HBD target. It is what it is.

Including my TA thoughts as usual, as I want to track my ideas. In multiple previous post I where talking about

we're doing the opposite of the previous cycle... Mirroring Steemits previous cycle and we've seen descending triangles break down over and over again. Its not good. Same rules, must get above 200 MA on daily at $0.2139 to be optimistic

I DCA’d out from $0.22–0.17 as the structure was clearly bearish, aiming for a better average and re‑entry when strength returned. That strength is now showing with our second bullish divergence since the 2025 top, aligning with the macro BTC roadmap I shared the day after the local bottom.

@digi-me/codex-viii-another-trick-the

I documented all six divergences in the last Hive bear cycle

Today I summarize them — and show how the same rhythm is forming again.

🎯 Codex Reflection — Hive Bear Cycle Rhythm

2021 — cycle peak in nov
2022 — Descending triangle + death cross → classic bear start. 3 daily bullish divergences → 50–150% bounces in febr, june and dec.
2023 — 2 bullish divergences → 30–70% bounces in june and aug.
2024 — 1 bullish divergences in July → marked bottom after Descending triangle breakdown → 350% rally to Jan 2025 peak
2025 — Descending triangle + death cross → mirrors 2022. So far 2 bullish divergences: April (50%) + December (atm 37%)

source MEXC chart

Confluence: Every bullish divergence (yellow mark) marked a bottom until price touched the daily 200MA (red line) to form a lower high. If history repeats, a bounce to the 200MA (≈$0.17) is likely before continuation. As mentioned in previous post:

In the next rally we will see a bearish retest of the breakdown lvl at +-$0.17, rejection = confirmation of cycle is done imo.

If the rhythm mirrors the last cycle, four more divergences could form, with divergence #6 again aligning with a potential cycle low. In confluence with weekly chart is how I caught the 2024 bottom.

We’re at divergence #2 — and last time this led to years of lower highs/lower lows before capitulation. Invalidation: reclaim the 200MA and form higher highs/higher lows.

Also interesting: the 2025 peak was exactly the bottom of the 2022 descending triangle. If that repeats, the 2028/29 peak could align around ~$0.17.

I don’t wanna hold through bear markets — I navigate them. 15% curation vs. multi‑hundred‑percent swings. I take my risk, as always, as last cycle, and trade off‑chain for precision. And I will come back with much more HP during the cycle. 🙏

“Long‑time readers know I called the 2024 capitulation and the July bottom live in early PUD posts, and that I mapped the entire A‑ and B‑wave structure in real time. The only deviation this cycle was the missing C‑wave. What I share isn’t opinion — it’s the structure the chart has shown all along. And if the bear cycle continues to play out, I rebalance simply to extract extra Hive from the divergences — it’s just cycle‑based capital management.”

For my own reference. Fractal worked, but no C-wave in cycle 2025. 👇

The fractal im tracking so I remember it.🚀 (*pricetargets change as you adapt to new data, but the moves will unfold as it have until now)

A big rally to $1.2 - $1.7 ish the next months, and a big rejection likely to correct to $0.6-0.7 to flip it over to support after it breaks. Just like the previous cycle, this would make for a very juicy swing trade. Sell in yellow circle, buyback in green for the last stage which should hopefully lead to a new ATH. All 3 phases lasted about 3 months each.

See my latest TA on the crypto market here: 🌀 Codex Brief Follow‑Up: Codex VIII Delivered

Happy PUD and PUM, see you next month. Have a great week. Bye! 😃

Read about:
Hive Power Up Day - January 1st 2026 and more info about PUD at Hive account@hivebuzz