In week one Kivv managed to
- retreat from one settlement around Avdeevka
- and Marinka
- lose some ground in Bila Hora
- a few sq km in Bakhmut
- 4 s300 in Kherson
- a large ammunition storage in Pavlogar
- an ammunition production facility in Kivv
- a missile production facility
- a few HQs and barracks plus a train supply center
On the upside they seem to have benefited from numerous drone strikes on mainland Russia, which must have been 'ghost' strikes or the work of rogues, because ZhidZelensky says his soldiers only fight in Ukraine, claiming that they are already strained in the fight over, barring them from extending the fight into Russia, if you can believe it (I got a bridge to sell you). Even though they are only PR victories their NAFO fanboys are in a frenzy over since they've been starved of any battlefield advancements since November.
Also, in spite of claiming the offensive is underway a week and a half ago, they did manage in typical Kivv fashion to contradict themselves by allegedly claiming that the offensive ought to be postponed until the crops in the fields could be burned, sometime in late June, to provide a smokescreen for the attack, and because the Pentagon Leaks.
You can't blame the Kivv Collective for the over hyped offensive being delayed because of the Pentagon leaks, not that much of the information in the leaks wasn't already known or at the very least tacitly understood or implicitly acknowledged, but one cannot think they were not foolish to hype it up to begin with, as they say, underpromise and overdeliver. These braggadocious leaders in Kivv are embolden to go on poking the bear because of the massive support by NATO, yet as their military was the largest in Europe next to Russia, they are reduced to delivering political victory, not strategic or tactical ones and whining that there's not enough aid, how one goes from Stronk Hero to Arrogant Beggar in a matter of months..
All in all, a week from today I assume the situation for Kivv will degrade even further as the desperation to show their supporters that they are able to achieve battlefield success leaves them no choice but to continue battling not just the Russians but the weather, and without risking the destruction or worse, capture, of their newly acquired western equipment, their progress will depend on untrained, poorly equipped cannon fodder sent without adequate fire support in suicide frontal assaults against the Russian Artillery which I quote the British Merc interview from three weeks ago:
‘Their artillery crews are pretty bloody good,’ says Perryman. ‘Iraq does not compare to this, it’s far more intense.’
..
To many, this might seem like an unrewarding soldiering experience: as at HS2, he is being pummelled by an enemy from afar, with no chance to hit back. It is, however, typical of most of Ukraine’s combat, be it on the Dnipro or in the Donbas. Soldiers can man the front lines for months without ever getting to shoot directly at the enemy. If Call of Duty brought out a war game based on this, no one would play it.
Link
During the Greatest Ukrainian Offensive Ever, summer version, 2022, which was first announced to fanfare in May, then June, then they claimed it was all a faint, then they said it'll be launched in July, and finally, on August 31st with no surprise to the Russians, who despite back then being in a precarious position with only one resupply route for a grouping of 25k on the western banks of the Dnieper, began destroying the AFU assaults daily for two and a half months straight, just so, when the newly received tanks and IFVs finally show up on the battlefield I expect the same story but with worse rates of attrition for the AFU, who will be facing a much bigger, more entrenched, more experienced defense with the rest of Russia behind it, making the destruction the AFU faced in Kherson pale in comparison. That valuable Russian experience is at least courtesy in part of these numerous Ukranazi "probing attacks" with the more disposable units (while their precious leopard and bradly formations gain valuable "trailer bitch" miles). At the same time one cannot wonder if they hadn't boasted about their goals if the Russians would have put so much effort entrancing themselves against this offensive, neither near or far, neither in winter or spring, neither tangible or surprising, ghost offensive.
The last few months of this "soon the ground will freeze" elevated to "soon the grass fires will conceal them", or "soon it will surprise the Russians" will grow tiring for the people who can anytime pull the plug by saying No to military aid. Meanwhile the Kievan Cirkus will continue delivering the same results just like this last week since fundamentally without anything changing the situation for Kivv will only continue on the same path. The same, as their fate is in the hands of degraded and depleted NATO stockpiles all this commotion will hardly make a difference, because even with getting lucky and winning the greatest counteroffensive ever lottery, what will the jackpot gains in territory for the cost of the last Ukrainians and latest NATO aid achieve, since fundamentally, nothing has changed for Ukraine, or NATO?
The question thus arises, as many have been pointing out, will NATO allow Ukraine to collapse or will NATO and Ukraine collapse?