The Cuban government has taken the important and long-awaited step of approving a mass pardon, whereby 2,010 people deprived of their liberty are already being released, according to reports from several media outlets such as CNN and AP. This measure is, in my view, maybe the only one that—on purely political grounds—Cuban authorities can adopt in a context of maximum US pressure, while also defending that there has been no concession or quid pro quo that would compromise sovereignty and the principle of self‑determination. I say it can be "defended" quite deliberately, because the suspicion that every decision announced at this critical moment—whatever it may be—is linked to negotiations with Washington is rational.
Nevertheless, despite that, it was worth taking the step, though now we must wait to see its concrete content. The number is quite significant, but all eyes are on the allegedly political prisoners that, according to opposition figures and international organizations, are held in Cuban prisons—something the government denies. There is no doubt that there are prisoners who have expressed political positions contrary to Cuba’s current political regime—and carried out concrete actions—, but Havana argues that they were not prosecuted for that reason but for common crimes.
The truth is that if people of particular relevance to this debate, such as Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara or Saylin Navarro, and dozens of individuals who took part in the July 11, 2021 protests, are not among those granted amnesty, the Cuban government will not achieve the dramatic impact it so desperately needs to improve its stance in the international political marketplace and, indirectly, place on the bilateral negotiating table something that pleases the United States.
Trump has Cuba in his sights, and given what we have seen, his threat of using force cannot be taken lightly. That is why it is so important for the island to be proactive and leverage all its options to avoid such a conflict, as long as it does not involve negotiating the most sensitive issues regarding the structure of the state or other related matters such as the roster of top officials. Under these conditions, that is its red line for not ceasing to be a country, but from the current point to that border—especially on the economic front—there is a long way that it can and must cover more quickly, not only because of the United States but because the current configuration of the world (dis)order leaves it no other option.
If that is not enough for the White House, which decides to align itself with the interests of the Florida hawks who—full of rage—bet on total, wholesale regime change, history will tell. For now, the signals coming from Pennsylvania Avenue are confusing, and at times they point strongly toward war, at other times toward a negotiated solution, although in the latter case always from a position of strength based on the application of a very comprehensive sanctions regime. However, as I predicted in this space, the human cost of escalate that policy seems to have led the administration to ease the de facto oil blockade it imposed in last December, and after the entry of a Russian tanker this week, there is talk of another shipment being prepared from the Eurasian giant. Stay tuned.
