Edited with Canva.
Judiciary steps up its crusade against Guatemala's President-elect
As the potential transfer of power in favor of Bernardo Arévalo approaches, the political situation in Central America's most populous nation is heating up even more. We have been dealing with the chaotic post-electoral scenario there for months now, following an open crusade of the judiciary against Arévalo's political formation, but which is getting more and more intense to the point that today several press agencies are reporting that the Public Prosecutor's Office is requesting the removal of his immunity as president-elect. The judiciary, commanded by a troika—whose upper tip is the Attorney General herself—rejected even from Washington because of the arbitrary exercise of its functions, has not committed to honor the inauguration of the social democrat Arévalo, but we have commented here that they have even considered imprisoning him. They have been protecting the corrupt and persecuting the honest for years.
While the electoral process was open, some judicial proceedings could not be undertaken, since the process and all the actors that were part of it had the protection of the Constitutional Court (CC). But even before it closed in October, supposedly with the guarantee that nothing and nobody could change the decision of the Guatemalans, a Reuters cable that we comment on here warned that Attorney General Consuelo Porras—of whom several popular sectors demand her resignation—had conceived three judicial channels to attack Arévalo and his political formation ("Movimiento Semilla", Seed Movement) as soon as the protection of the CC lost its effect. Well, we are no longer talking about attacking only the Seed Movement as until now, but to advance in an individualized frontal attack on the son of the man who was the first president of the current "democratic" era in Guatemala. The interesting thing is that the case, which is quite risky and seems forced, has to do with events that occurred in 2022 (the thing is to demonstrate that certain publications of Arévalo in X encouraged the takeover of the powerful University of San Carlos de Guatemala then).
Bernardo Arévalo holds a report from the EU electoral observation mission that monitored the recent elections (source).
How the Seed Movement registered as a political party before the electoral authority was not important until it surprised all and sundry by sneaking into the runoff, and neither the dusty event that now seems like a priority for the Public Prosecutor's Office either. Even accepting that there is some irregularity in all this, it is clear that the timing is a powerful element to denounce the interest of the judiciary in derailing the train of hope in Guatemala. I am not saying with that metaphor that Arévalo is necessarily what the country needs, or that he is going to change the socioeconomic matrix of a nation full of poor people and chronically malnourished children, but he undoubtedly commanded the boat that people jumped on amid the shipwreck as a country project that Guatemala is right now. The level of impunity that we are witnessing there is very worrying. The Supreme Court of Justice rejected a writ of amparo requested by Arévalo as a shield against the crusade led by Porras, although I don't rule out that the judiciary is just the vehicle—a powerful one—through which a conservatism that has governed and governs all the apparatuses of power in the country tries to perpetuate itself in power. We will continue to monitor the situation in our successive reports.
Javier Milei rushes and appeals to Donald Trump's playbook
The political formation of the ultra-libertarian candidate is installing the narrative of electoral fraud when there are only hours left for the kick-off of the runoff for deciding who will command the ship of Argentine society until 2027. It is quite alarming and discouraging to see this dynamic landing in the blue-and-white nation, which in Latin America was first adopted by Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil—just like Trump appealing to remain in power. Although if anyone was going to embrace it there without a doubt it was Milei, who this Thursday has even discussed the outcome of the first round. All this vitiate an electoral and social scenario in general that was already tense enough. From the electoral commands that accompany "Libertad Avanza" in its assault on the presidency of the nation, some have said that the ruling party must be prevented from "winning illegally what it cannot win legally".
A supporter of Javier Milei holds up a banner that has become popular among his base, depicting his rival Sergio Massa as a Pinocchio on a 100 Argentine peso bill (source).
It is a very dangerous narrative and one that permeates, let us not doubt it, in the people, especially in the block that follows Milei, positioning the idea that a potential victory of Sergio Massa necessarily implies the commission of a massive fraud. It is also being "alerted", in a disinformation trend, that Peronism—the political group in power—could generate blackouts aimed at the nerve centers where votes are counted. The huge crisis in Argentina, a nation indebted to the IMF—something Massa intends to re-discuss if he wins office—and poverty that reaches 4 out of 10 citizens, has been a breeding ground for the rise of a very toxic political polarization, a problem that goes hand in hand with the deterioration of people's ability to think critically about society.
Your quick regional roundup
The Inter-American Development Bank has given the green light to a $225 million loan to Costa Rica for the construction of infrastructure to increase tourism and agricultural yields in the north of the country. Another already active line item of $110 million will be integrated into this new financing, whose amortization term is extended for 25 years, with a grace period of five and a half years, and an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Also in Costa Rica, more than two tons of cocaine were seized after a maritime chase out of a Hollywood action movie. A U.S. aircraft detected a boat with irregular movement in Costa Rican jurisdictional waters, which led to the tracking and subsequent pursuit of the vessel "throughout the night in stormy conditions," authorities said Thursday. The two crew members of the fleeing vessel—which ended up cornered at the mouth of a river—attempted to flee on foot.
Returning to the world of finance, the IMF also made available an important credit line for 35 billion dollars to México, given the "great moment" its economy is going through. "(The country) is in the midst of a broad-based expansion, with robust private sector consumption and investment," a senior official of the global lender said Thursday, so the Aztec nation meets "the criteria for the Flexible Credit Line's eligibility." Continuing there but now to report on a new act of violence, we have that a photojournalist was atrociously killed with a bullet that pierced his left eye.
- Finally, in what I consider a positive step, Paraguay resumed diplomatic relations with Venezuela without conditions. Five years ago, bilateral ties broke down when former President Mario Abdo supported the generalized disavowal—encouraged by Washington—of Nicolás Maduro as Venezuelan president. In general, the political deployment of current President Santiago Peña, who has a conservative profile that has not been so evident in his first steps in the López Palace, has been quite interesting.
And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.
Edited with Canva.
