The Latin American Report # 70

Cuba at stake (II): What's new since our last insight?

The situation here has improved somewhat, first of all, because the annoying power outages we have been suffering for the last three years have diminished —considerably— (remember that this was one of the major triggers, if not the major one, of the most relevant protests since the Cuban Revolution came to power in 1959 —staged in July 2021). With a reliable electric service, a critical part of the battle for social control is won (I was reading this article on the problems in the Middle East in this regard, and there it is more or less said that a representative deficit in the availability of energy for the residential sector is fuel —value the word in this context— to raise the citizenry living in "authoritarian/totalitarian regimes"; it seems to me that the author's ideological bias betrays him, because nowhere in the world do people assimilate with obsequiousness an extended scenario of rolling blackouts). When the service in question is stabilized for a long time, nobody remembers its importance —and what it entails to maintain it and meet the demand, even in the United States itself— until a crisis hits, so when the latter subsides people feel they have been brought back to life, even if they lack bread on the other side; here we go.

Damn economy!

As far as the performance of the Cuban economy is concerned, I consider that we are in a better moment than four or five months ago when the supply of goods showed a mind-boggling depression. I don't mean to say that there has been even a little progress in solving its structural problems, that production —especially in the decisive food sector— has grown convincingly, or that the average income we Cubans receive can now "fight" with dignity with the market. But there is more supply, and even though prices are prohibitive for the majority, it is always preferable that this [supply] expands —that it shows itself regardless of the actor who manages it— than it shrinking due to shortages or repressed by regulatory pressures.

At the end of the first quarter of the year, the inventories of some state-run stores that sell in a sort of bank dollar —MLC, which is only "created" when the banking system receives dollars or other recognized foreign currency in cash or by transfer/remittance from abroad— had rushed, and an impressive movement of opening of private stores that are fed by businesses importing commodities —mainly— through state-owned companies had not yet taken off. Right now, especially in Havana and to a lesser extent in the provincial capitals, the network of stores that sell in MLC have very acceptable levels of supply in quantity and quality —the critical point is in prices—, with imported products but also with excellent national proposals coming from SMBs, somewhat concentrated in the dairy and canned food industry for the moment (a week ago I took a brief tour of the stores in a very popular shopping area here in Havana, and from the grain section to the dairy section, including meat products, they had a good assortment, sumptuous to sum it up).

_{Photos taken with my Alcatel last week while touring markets in the capital.}

If you have understood well how each MLC is credited in our bank accounts, you will suppose that in principle only those who receive remittances from abroad or access through certain services to payments abroad —often using computer tricks— can add a balance in this sense. But then this bank dollar moves in the informal market, where it can end up in my card through a P2P agreement, exchanged for $HBD or Cuban pesos. Many say —and it is very reasonable to do so— that the government is doing wrong by selling necessities in a currency that the Cubans don't receive officially, but many like me don't get fresh remittances, and yet we have our MLC cards and from time to time we feed them. And so, some on a small scale, and others displaying more muscle, resolve a critical part of their livelihood in this way.

In the case of the referred stores operated by private SMBs or cooperatives, they are an alternative that sometimes even have products at cheaper prices than their state-owned counterparts, but the standard is that the dynamics of high and prohibitive prices are reproduced, although at times it seems that some items such as cooking oil or poultry —strategic for household food security— are marketed at minimum prices compared to the value they had at the beginning of the year (today, for example, I saw a liter of the former on sale for the lowest value in a long time —talking about the market segment outside direct state management—). What I want to emphasize is that there is movement, the market has been colored in some way, although it is not the majority of the population that can make use of these channels.

The socio-political trend

Now, what is left for those hundreds of thousands of Cubans who can't —whatever the reasons— "travel first class"? The "economy" one remains closed until further notice, which erodes more and more every day the social consensus that for many years characterized —to a great extent— the relationship between the people and the leadership of the Cuban Revolution. The lack of acometivity, and the already unforgivable mistakes in the design and implementation of the economic policy, in the management of human rights —particularly of dissent—, democratic development, and in political communication —which all occur, let us remember as well, amid an infamous economic war on the one hand and political on the other by Washington, which directly affects decisively the development of the nation and also, incidentally, the evaluation we can make of it—, do a disservice to the objective of those who govern not to continue losing ground in the popular imagination, in the representation that people make of their work.

Between the natural sociological changes that the times bring and those that have been patiently induced or in which a passivity is also reflected from the political-social activity —with citizens who are more contentious but have deep debts of knowledge and intellectual skills; they have access to more information but are more clumsy to process it, as legitimate children of post-truth—, and inflation that swallows our meager incomes like a thousand-headed hydra, the situation could not be more tense. This sad combination is the main cause of the socio-political turbulence in which the country is immersed, of the painful emigration by air, sea, and land of thousands of young people —well prepared in many cases in certain professions, and I say painful because how much better it would be for them to produce and be happy here, or to learn to be so (I am writing something about this last idea). It is also the cause of the wreckage, both material and ethical, that I appreciate in the provision of once-star services such as education or health, or in the way we relate to each other, regardless of where we are and how we think.

In the latter, the media campaign financed by U.S. Congress and implemented from Foggy Bottom has played a tenebrous role, fishing in troubled —and sanctioned— waters thousands of Cubans for the ranks of disinformation and extreme polarization, where everything that comes from the State must be attacked by default —such as a recently announced process of bankarization which I will expand on at another time—, where Cuba must be criticized 24 hours a day, where one can't speak of the light that —at least sometimes, let's put it this way— the sun shines but of its spots. Where "the prophets of Baal" tear their garments and vociferate against "communism" and "dictatorship" without a serious criticism of the concept (a winning card these times). Where they spread the idea that political and physical repression —which yes, exists to some degree and is vituperative— is "constant" and "totalitarian" concerning the whole of socio-political relations and actions, which would imply that each one of us has a big stick hanging over our heads to —literally— beat us every five minutes as submissive slaves of the "regime". Where it seems that no one has fun, no one goes to the movies, no one has an ice cream or eats a paella. Irrationality takes over.

My bet

If you ask me [maybe if you have followed me for some time you know that], my bet is on systems oriented to realize the sacrosanct right to welfare for all individuals, which ensure that there are no people excluded and discriminated against from access to basic —and even non-basic— goods and services based on the empire of money. Without hatred or stridency, I believe in social justice, consciously assumed as part of a cultural revolution in which we learn to rethink society and ourselves. All this is alien to Cuba's present time. For the immediate future, let's hope at least that citizens don't think in such a hurried way about politics, but that they do it calmly —a difficult thing, I agree, but as critical as the GDP growth—, and that the Government finishes unblocking the mechanisms to boost food production and the economy in general with real incentives, assuming risk, so that the fortunate shadow of the market covers us all —or at least many more people—. "See you there", the poet would say.

This is all for our seventieth report. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.