This was not a planned post, but given the "unexpected" nature of the matter, it is important to talk about some things.
First, it is compatible:
- Criticizing the U.S. attack for the precedent it reaffirms.
- Criticizing Maduro for violate the domestic rule of law of Venezuela by stealing the 2024 elections in an electoral coup d'état.
- Recognize that democracy in Venezuela is not the priority of the United States. At most a residual effect.
- Celebrating if the Chavista dictatorship falls.
Second, the statement of US gov is that they not attack the nation of Venezuela, they strike the head of the Soles Drug Cartel a denominated terrorist organization so he had legal Powers to do it under USA law.
Third, there is too soon to know but some sources claim that all this was a negociated exit. The know facts support this scenario:
- Zero air defense
- Zero radar detection and take-off of fighter jets
- Zero deployment of the Venezuelan army
- Zero defensive actions by Maduro's bodyguard
- They take Maduro's wife too
Either it was negotiated or Venezuela's army is made of paper or only is effective against their own citizens.
It is unlikely that the Chavista regime will fall as a result of this. There are still actors with control over the army and the police and the opposition continues to be persecuted or imprisoned.
It is difficult for Maduro's political heirs to make a transition to democracy for fear of judicial consequences for their crimes. For them it is all or nothing. And it's hard for the United States to do anything else.
Trump will probably use this action as a bargaining chip and reach commercial and, to a lesser extent, political agreements with the current Chavista leadership.