I will analyze what has happened in the history of bitcoin when it has given a signal to buy
Today I bring you this analysis of the Hash Ribbons indicator that has already given a buy signal on several occasions in the history of bitcoin
Let's see
Repeatedly throughout the history of the bitcoin price, different mining capitulations have been made, with buy signals given by this indicator with subsequent bullish cycles.
Hash Ribbons
This indicator indicates the end of the mining capitulation and a good time to buy, according to this indicator, with the bullish crossing of the MA mid-lines of the 30-day Hash Rate, exceeds the 60-day line.
Hash Ribbons in the history of Bitcoin Price
"Of the 9 historic buy signals, the average gain to the next market cycle peak (historically less than 3 years away) is over 5000%.
Returns are even greater than shown here for positions held forever.
What is interesting is the downdraw through all time. The average maximum downdraw for each of these entries is just 11%.
These results are achieved without considering any other indicators, metrics or intelligence. Just two simple moving averages on Bitcoin’s Hash Rate.
There is one "bad" purchase. On January 2015 (red text in above table), where a maximum downdraw of 42% occured. Note that this is still considerably less than half of Bitcoin’s numbers 80% + drawdowns). Nonetheless, the majority of such drawdowns can be eliminated by simply adding a price action indicator. Such an indicator could include the famous Bitcoin 10- and 20-day SMA cross over, as made popular by Mr. Anderson, for example.
Purchasing during miner capitulation, as the Hash Rates start to “recover” and only once price momentum has gone positive (using the 10–20 SMA cross) yields the results below (termed the “Hash Ribbon” indicator). "
source: https://medium.com/capriole/hash-ribbons-bitcoin-bottoms-60da13095836
Hash Ribbons in Bitcoin Price History
Throughout the history of Bitcoin we see several points of purchase indicated by the Ribbons hash, not always being the best point of purchase. We see that there have been subsequent setbacks to see the graph. The only time there was a major setback after the point of purchase, is in 2015 that it was 42%The price of Bitcoin has almost always cycled upwards, following the bullish buy signal.
As we see there were 9 points of purchase throughout the history of bitcoin
Taking into account the Great Bullish cycles post Halving we can define 3 Important cycles so far
Halving Cycle 2012
Halving Cycle 2016
Halving 2020 Cycle
Throughout the bullish cycle what investors do is take profits as the price reaches the set targets, no investor can know what the maximum price will be, it is sold when it reaches a target, unless they are Bitcoin holders
Bitcoin Holders don't think about a selling price because they don't think about selling their Bitcoin, they think of Bitcoin as a bargaining chip.
The percentages are spectacular but it is because the maximum price of each Cycle is taken.
Halving Cycle 2012
After halving 2012 there has also been this mining capitulation and it has been the last sign of purchase, (indicated by the hash ribbons) that has brought the bitcoin price from $ 18 dollars to almost $ 1120 dollars approximately
Peak to use: Nov 2013
Analyzing the graph we see that in the Halving Cycle it has given 2 shopping points before and one post halving
All with spectacular percentages in this bullish cycle, taking as a maximum point the price of 2013
Halving Cycle 2016
After halving 2016 there has also been this mining capitulation and it has been the last sign of purchase, (indicated by the hash ribbons) that has brought the bitcoin price from $ 500 to almost $ 20,000
Peak to use: Dec 2017
Analyzing the graph we see that in the Halving Cycle it has given 2 shopping points before and one post halving
All with spectacular percentages in this bullish cycle taking as a maximum point the price of December 2017
Halving 2020 Cycle
Buy Signal -Current Time
As we have already seen, the Hash Ribbons indicator is based on average MA lines 30 and 60 days of the Hash Rate indicator. Bitcoin has been maintained during these two months in lateral average but the Hash adjustments have been upward and has been decisive for this buy signal.
This indicator has already given 3 points of purchase before halving 2020, with percentages of 237%, 42% and 52% of profit, respectively, with the maximum price peak.
If we wanted to compare the current moment of the buy signal after a halving, we would have to compare it with 2016 or 2012 post halving
This next cycle of repeating history would be the longest, which would give very good profits to the holders of bitcoin
What do you think this buy signal will lead to a new bullish cycle, or will the markets continue to correct due to the global crisis?
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Protect your assets use Stop loss
The alcoins market is very dependent on the price of Bitcoin, when Bitcoins goes up the alcoins go up more, but also in the other sense, so I suggest that you periodically review a Bitcoin and use stop loss and move it when they are already in profit. Do not let a profit become a loss.
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READ DISCLAIMER: this publication / analysis is only for general information purposes. I am not a professional trader and I will never be a financial advisor. The material in this publication does not constitute any trading advice of any kind. This is the way I see the paintings and what my ideas are.
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