It’s wild how fast the global order is shifting. Faster than most people expected, honestly. The United States is still trying to influence how Europe should run, yet the grip is slipping. That dynamic doesn’t work. What’s happening instead is that Europe is slowly stepping back, choosing distance. Leaders don’t trust the current USA administration. And with trust gone, even NATO could wobble. If that falls, we’ll see changes no one prepared for.
There’s a bigger pattern behind all of this. When the world order rearranges itself, a new leader rises. A new center of gravity appears. My bet is on the Middle East, specifically Qatar or the United Arab Emirates. Why? Because that’s where the money is, the innovation is, and the long-term vision is. That’s where art, education, and even human rights are being elevated as strategic values instead of afterthoughts. Qatar was one of the first to step in when Palestine needed rebuilding. That’s not small. That’s the move of a country that understands soft power as well as humanitarian influence.
It reminds me of the United States right after World War II, when it stepped into global leadership because it had resources, optimism, and a coherent story about the future. But as Ray Dalio loves to point out, nothing is permanent. Everything moves in cycles, usually around eighty years. I believe that. You can practically feel the wheel turning right now.
And Europe won’t be spared. Finland is heading toward a hard downturn, and the United Kingdom seems to be following a similar path. Both countries are showing early signals of a coming crash. Spain feels relatively stable, but stability here is an illusion wrapped in sunshine. The economy depends heavily on tourism. If travel stops for any reason, even temporarily, the whole structure shakes. And it’s absolutely absurd that buying an affordable home in Spain is now harder than in Finland. That alone tells you how distorted everything has become just in couple years.
I know some people will disagree with my view, and honestly, I welcome that. It’s interesting when people challenge my thoughts. I’m curious to see how fast these shifts unfold, because we’re already on the rollercoaster, whether we like it or not.
And personally? I’ve decided to look for a job. Freelancing becomes almost impossible during economic contraction, because companies simply don’t have the money. It’s not what I want to do, but it’s what the moment demands. Cycles close, new cycles open, and right now we’re living right inside that transition — that strange, chaotic middle where the old world is fading and the new one hasn’t fully arrived yet.
I would say we’re heading into five to seven years of instability before anything begins to settle. That’s just where we are in the cycle.
And after that? Oil won’t run the world anymore. The new era will be shaped by green energy, data, AI and maybe even Bitcoin. A completely different engine driving global power.