One of the things that has been bouncing around my head over the past couple of weeks since Chaos Legion released is this exact question: how well will card values hold over the long run?
This isn't meant to be any kind of FUD. I love this game, but want to take an objective look at one of the major investments that people make into it - cards.
I myself was buying plenty before CL's release, mainly focused on stacking rewards cards like Djinn Oshannus and Venari Wavesmith. Those 2 cards rose to the top of their respected rarity peers and the price appreciation as well as rental value were great.
Then came the launch of Chaos Legion and with it a whole new batch of cards along with a change in the starter deck summoners. Alric rotated out and all of a sudden, people couldn't get the magic buff for Oshannus and Wavesmith for free anymore. Card prices plummeted.
Here is the thing: With any new release we all know the meta of the game is going to change. We also know that the market will rebalance and reprice itself as new combos and strategies around cards will emerge. I'll admit I was a little blindsided by how badly card prices fell, but can also recognize that summer 2021 up to the Chaos Legion launch in December was probably a bit of a bubble due to no new card availability outside of rewards.
So much demand with barely any new supply. Let's once again remind ourselves that this game went from 8k players to 500k players in that time frame.
So I got rekt owning all of those cards and here is the lesson that I've learned:
As a player, buy only the cards you want to play with. That is the golden rule about NFTs right now in general. If it has value to you, then that is all that matters - otherwise you are just speculating with a very volatile asset.
As an investor, diversify diversify diversify. Going all in on something is fine if you can corner the market, but most of us aren't at that level. Create a nice portfolio of cards that offer solid price appreciation opportunities and rental value.
Also, and this is maybe the most important, keep an eye out for what changes lie ahead.
So what else is on the horizon?
I see 3 major game updates that could have massive potential to change game meta and card values: modern format, land, and Riftwatchers.
Modern Format is up first, and while most players both old and new will be buying up Chaos Legion to create their decks, I think once people are happy with the level they are at they will turn their attention to Untamed and Dice to fill out competitive decks for this new format.
Land is the biggest unknown, but from my understanding this will offer older cards some utility as they will have more collection power to work the land. Will that increase prices? Maybe. But many older cards are priced out for new players so I can see land owners focusing on Beta or even Untamed to focus on acquiring enough collection power to be effective.
Riftwatchers will provide the largest change to the game meta. As we saw with summoners like Mylor, Lorna, and Owster from Dice - new combos and strategies will create new supply and demand around the cards that synergize well. It's difficult to know at this point, but it's good to be aware that the market will be in an aggressive repricing mode with any new card release.
So as we head into 2022, these are some of the things I will keep in mind as I continue to build out my deck as a player and collection of assets as an investor. I see big things ahead for Splinterlands and am excited for all that is on the horizon!