In the leadup to the Phase 2 release of Chaos Legion, I've been trying to decide whether it's worth buying up and staking SPS for more vouchers.
Below is a pretty straightforward caluclation of the ROI on buying and staking SPS for the 30 days of the Phase 2 sale, across a variety of SPS and Voucher prices.
Assumptions/Variables
Total SPS Staked: 200,000,000. We're currently at 191M, and this will definitely go up. 200M is probably an underestimate, but is a nice even number.
SPS APY: 45%. Again, this will probably go down, but not hugely. And the APY on a single SPS over 1 month isn't going to make a huge difference, so I'm not too worried about this assumption (e.g. 50% APY vs 40% APY is a difference of 0.006 SPS over a month)
Price of SPS: $0.31. This is the purchase price right now.
Price of vouchers: $4-$15. I'll use $1 increments, and test the range of values. As of writing, the value of vouchers is $9.4. I think it's not gonna break $10 again with the doubled supply, but I've been wrong before. And maybe people are worried about CL selling out.
Behavior: This assumes you stake all the SPS you earn from the APY at least once a day. If you instead cash out the earned SPS for other tokens, the numbers would change (e.g. buying DEC instead of SPS towards the end of the month might be a better bet). This also assumes you will just sell your vouchers for cash. There are a lot of other possibilities (buy CL packs, sell vouchers for SPS to stake and get more vouchers, hold for bonus packs in general sale), and I don't want to dive too much into them here. If people are interested, I can dive into what seems to be the best stragegy for vouchers from a pure ROI standpoint.
Results
Below is the main graph of results.
Unsurprisingly, as voucher price goes up, the ROI of SPS goes up, more or less linearly. The linear part may be surprising, as interest and earnings are notoriously non-linear. However, the time horizon here is short enough, and the ROI low enough, that compounding isn't significant enough to deviate from linearity (and the behavior assumed is that voucher returns aren't compounded, which may not be what people do).
High voucher value: If vouchers remain at ~$15, each SPS you buy will return over 50% on the vouchers it will generate over the month.
Medium voucher value: Something I consider more likely as a price of vouchers, $8, has a very solid return of 30% (i.e. one sps, valued at $0.31, will generate 0.04 SPS (~$0.012) and 0.01 vouchers ($0.08)).
Low voucher value: At the bottom end of the spectrum, if vouchers are worth a little less than a pack at $3 (which should be the floor as vouchers will get you bonus packs in phase 3), SPS has a 20% return over the course of the month.
Conclusions
Is 20% to 50% of an ROI enticing enough for you to buy and stake SPS at the current prices? That is a personal question you need to answer for yourself.
If you are planning on buying packs anyways, and you don't think SPS will tank in the next month (I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down, but don't think it will tank), a possible strategy (which is what I'm doing), is to buy SPS now, earn voucher value over the Phase 2 sale, then convert SPS (at hopefully a similar price or better as today) into credits in a month to buy CL packs in the general sale.