Any of the 3 people who regularly read my posts will know I've been really excited about conflicts and figuring out the value of staking cards in wagons.
In the leadup to conflicts, I was very Bullish on buying cheap GF cards, often getting at least 125 CP/$ (e.g., $100 for a GFL), as these would lead to a high yield of conflict points and therefore a high ROI on actual conflict cards.
Since the details of the conflicts were released (particularly the information about the guarantees), the community has glommed onto this idea, and the floor of the entire set has risen dramatically. Now, the absolute best you can do is ~80 CP/$.
My goal in today's post is to convince you not to buy those cards, and instead opt for slightly lower CP/$ cards instead.
The cheap cards recently spiked
When people realized how potentially lucrative conflicts could be, they went and bought all the cheapest cards of the Rebellion set. What this did was spike the prices of all the cheapest cards in the set. And which cards are the cheapest? Generally the cards seen as the worst in the set. Below are some images of cards like this.
Here are three GF cards that all spiked at least 60% in the last week and are selling for ~80 CP/$. These are all bad cards. The spike bringing up the floor for cards in Rebellion is purely based on desire for airdrop points, not because of the quality of the cards.
The good cards didn't spike
The reverse is largely true for the good cards of the set. These cards already had a worse CP/$ value (~50 CP/$). Because the cheapest rebellion cards are still cheaper than this, they largely didn't spike in value. Below are a few of those cards:
The above are three good cards in the set, all selling for around 50 cp/$ right now, and all underwent a small decrease in price in the past week. The cards didn't spike because there are cheaper CP/$ cards. And they didn't drop in value down to the floor because they are good cards.
I believe the good cards will hold their value. The bad ones won't.
What I think is going to happen is that, as conflicts go on, and the value of airdrop points is less, the bad cards that surged in price will get cheaper because that price and demand is propped up solely by the presence of conflicts. On the other hand, good cards where the price is held up by the quality of the card, will likely drop much less. I think they will still drop, as the end of conflicts will probably lead to a temporary price drop across the whole set, but I believe they will maintain their value MUCH better than the cheap and bad cards.
I have acted on this in my own account. I sold off all the cheap copies of GFR, GFE, and GFLs I had been building up over the past few weeks. I sold off my Muspelheim Demon, my Chaos Golem, my Redwyrm Hatchling, my Avarisdeus for about double what I paid. And I bought the good cards: I bought Anachron Bolter, Moxian Rebel, Captain Fellblade, and others. They cost more than I sold the bad cards for. E.g., I sold Avarisdeus for $29 each and bought Captain Fellblade for $35 each. The slight price premium for the good cards I believe is well-worth it in the long run even if I could have slightly more airdrop points right now.
Conclusions
If you are holding on to the cheap cards of the Rebellion set, purely for CP generation, I recommend selling them off now while demand is high. The prices on these cards probably won't ever be higher. And buy into the good cards. I think you'll be much better-positioned in the long-term as conflicts occur and the value of the bad cards is lost.
Monstercards.com
Special thanks to monstercards.com, where the price charts and images are taken from. I recently found this website which offer a 3% discount on buying from them. I don't get anything for you using their services (this isn't a paid ad or anything, although I would love it to be in case monstercards.com folks are reading :) ).
Referral
Want to get in on Rebellion conflicts? Want to buy some of the good cards? Use my referral link below and I'll send you a few cards to get you started.