Conclave Arcana Set
So about a week ago, the Conclave Arcana set announcement was made (Link), which will include 82 new cards
They also included Black Foil cards, which will have an extremely low print rate as they are max-level copies and give a jackpot option when opening packs. 9 New Abilities will be introduced looking at the old card values mainly nerfing and devaluing Speed which was very strong. There are also different pack types which I'm not sure how it will work out.
Aside from this it's the ususal Presale which begins April 22nd as they never miss the realses targets when it comes down to sales while something like land after many years still isn't fully here. Basically it's again a situation where the strongest cards will come from Promo cards that come along with the pre-sale along with the Airdrops of the Legendary Summoners which makes it a situation where you either get in early or skip/buy cards directly of the market as they are cheaper.
So overall I don't see much difference between previous sets and unless they manage to actually bring new players in (which so far there is no sign of) I still expect lower or similar sales to Rebellion which overall dissapointed.
SPS Anticipation Pump
So SPS went from a price range around 0.0060$-0.0065$ now in about a week time to cloe to 0.012$ which is roughly a 80% increase and the main reason I see for this is pure anticipation of some existing players. I would say not so much to actually burn it for DEC but because everyone expects the price to go up which creates somewhat of a self-fullfilling prophecy
I was in a situation where it also crossed my mind to buy some SPS before it really started pumping just to take potential profit on for the short term but I didn't pull the trigger and soon after, it was already up +30% so I skipped only to see it continue to rise. I did however manage to cost-average buy and earn my way up to 300k+SPS which is not as much as I ultimately want but it's at least a nice chunck.
Where SPS will go From Here?
So the big question now is how many existing players that bought into Rebellion will now also buy into the Conclave Arcana set and if any new players will come in. I guess I'm rather skeptical at the moment as I still don't see enough reasons for new players to come in, which ultimately will be the key factor. The way I see things play out more likely is the following.
- The ones who pushed the price of SPS up most likely bought in anticipation for short-term profit and at some point will dump the price back down
- Earnings in Modern will be very high at the start (as everyone who owns mainly Chaos Legion will be pushed out), which kind of creates a loop where you need more Cards & SPS to earn more SPS. This can result in a positive spiral where it pushes itself up, but I more likely see it collapse on itself sooner than later
- Modern Chaos Legion Players I would say are more likely to capitulate and dump their SPS + Cards instead of playing Wild/Survival as they are not going to want to fall in the same trap to spend thousands of dollars just to see the value evaporate over time.
- Survival did create 33% more inflation and at higher prices this puts on a lot of weight.
- I still see no real incentive for new players to come in as crypto still feels like it's in a bear market and the entire process to become a players is still just too complex and demanding both on the time requirement and investment as you need both cards and SPS.
At the same time, I would not be surprised if things kind of did go in a positive spiral where the big green candle attracts new players which pumps the prices even higher,... I guess only time will tell.
My Conclave Arcana Strategy!
I did not buy any Rebellion packs and only just got 3 cards of which 1 max level off the market
I also don't inted to buy any Conclave Arcana packs as I just don't see the value proposition also because I simply don't have the time or ambition to grind for hours in modern each day. Instead I will just continue to run a bot in Wild and occasionally when I have time and feel like it play in Survival Mode. I did capitulate on my Alt Account which had mainly gold cards while I continue to enter the brawls there with Soulbound cards. I haven't yet sold any cards but might do so going forward in case prices would go higher even though I don't anticipate that. So the plan really is to hold my main collection and SPS while I continue to accumulate in the game maybe buying a couple more selective cards at max level from the market.
Conclusion!
I see the recent SPS Pump mainl as a result of anticipation of existing players to be able to sell at a higher price during the launch of the new set. Fundamentally though, I still need to see a situation where actual new players are signing up and I don't see it as that likely to be honest. I still enjoy Splinterlands for what it is and will mostly just hold on to what I have while possibly accumulating some more by playing. If there ever is a read adoption wave and a crazy pump, I will look to possibly opt out an move on as most likely it eventually will be followed by another collapse.
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