Hello Everyone and Welcome!
My name is ForsakenSushi and I am here to give you my analysis as a value investor with many years of experience analyzing the stock market. Please remember any statements here are my opinion and are not financial advice. Always do your own due dilligence on any investment.
Splinterlands is a card game like Magic The Gathering. But these cards are NFTs and exist on the HIVE blockchain. So buying them and renting them out for example can be a solid investment. I myself have purchased a stock of some cards just for the purpose of renting out recently and am earning as high as 100% APR in DEC but these rates pale in comparison to what some earlier players say they got much higher rates in the past, WOW! But I can tell you at the bank I work at our current best CD rate is 0.3% APR as a comparison point. But renting is just one of the income streams I found on Splinterlands, I also found SPS by way of the Airdrop. All assets in Splinterlands are given a value based on the below chart:
---So from the DEC we earn in combat, to the cards we earn as rewards from dailys or season chests, to the cards we purchase. Land, Packs, Titles, Skins, SPT all give points which add up to (X), then the game adds up everyone elses points that day (Y) , X/Y *1,100,000 SPS tokens per day airdropped.
So that calculation is done on a daily basis based on all your currency and assets for the next 309 days. So far you can see my earnings from airdop and staking, mind you I just started the game end of August but I really like the income potentials of this game and I always loved Magic as a kid.
--As you can see most of my SPS income has come from staking SPS which I bought. You can purchase SPS on Pancakeswap with BNB, which is what I did and then transferred it into the game by way of metamask. BNB has recently taken a large hit as you can see below:
--Thats the two week chart of BNB so you can see 2 weeks ago BNB was approx $500 and today now stands at $356. This is relevant to us because on Pancakeswap BNB is the trading pair for SPS. And BNB and SPS dominate the liquidity pool there. As the value of BNB falls this has an adverse affect on the value of SPS. This mostly explains the below 2 week chart for SPS:
--BNB is down 28.7% in the last 14 days while SPS is down 36.5% in the last 14 days. So SPS is actually down more though, this has been a relentless selloff in SPS since it peaked out at approx $0.86 according to the charts on coin gecko. I believe this is because many people have either used SPS as a free way to cash in not seeing its long term value, or sold sps to buy more dec ive seen some did to increase airdrop or buy cards. I myself as a new player see value in holding and staking SPS in the long run. Here is the distribution of total SPS that will ever exist.
--Many people have looked at this information and rightly concluded that the airdrop is a great way to maximize their SPS income quickly so they bought DEC and pushed it up to 8x its pegged price, currently its around 5.8x its pegged price. This increase above peg causes the game to increase DEC production to naturally correct this price abberation so this is a losing strategy in my opinion in long run, fighting game mechanics as an investment. Yes dec will always be useful in game so its not a loss loss just not a good way to allocate in my opinion. But thats what makes a market. Now SPS seems to be trending downward, there is selling pressure more than buying, But what I see is Staking will payout 900b SPS while airdrop will payout 400b, yes airdrop is 12 month and staking payout is 65 months. But this means that staking income is guaranteed for 65 months, so Even if APR drops to 10% you are still doing a lot better than the Bank or even bonds/dividend stocks. As I said before the current APR is 103% and thats with 87.3m SPS staked. So you can imagine, you would need 870m Staked tokens for APR to drop to 10% so It will take 2-3 years most likely. SPS is recently also exchangable into credits, as soon as this happened SPS spiked from a low of 0.23 up to about 0.30 again. The future looked bright! and then BNB struck us down. SPS will be needed to get vouchers, staked sps will be used compared to everyone else to give people vouchers for chaos legion packs, this is main reason i bought SPS. As a new player, this gives me cheapest access to make a future investment in a large quantity of game cards. I currently hold 4071 SPS and i Purchased 3837 SPS I put $200 dollars in at around 0.37 and another 800 around 0.27. So Ill keep everyone posted on my growth and progress. Thanks for reading! Tell me your market forecast below!