Rebellion, The Last Mile - Part 3

This is Part 3 of a series of PeakD posts that aim to track the final days of the Rebellion Core Set. The other posts related to this topic are here: Part 1, Part 2.

Okay, things are starting to heat up little by little. Last week, we passed a significant milestone in our journey towards the end of the Rebellion era: the one million packs that are available for sale in the Store! Or, to be precise, there are currently less than one million packs available for sale from the official Store, and this number shrinks by the day. If you are planning to buy Rebellion packs, you have less than five weeks to do so. Yes, packs will still be available on the secondary market, but good luck finding Rebellion packs there with a circulating supply of fewer than 60,000.

This milestone event took place on November 9, 2024. And here is how the situation looked on that day:

The caveat here is that the amount of Rebellion packs that have been bought already, in the course of a year, is roughly 970k. And the DAO holds more than 800k Rebellion packs. So one might think that there will be enough liquidity for the foreseeable future. There won't be. In 5 weeks from now, if people don't buy more Rebellion packs in expectation of the next set (Conclave Arcana) then the only number of relevance will be the amount of circulating packs, which is a tiny number (currently, less than 60k packs). If you want to get a sense of what that (lack of) liquidity really means, take a look at the same data, but for the Chaos Legion set:

Now that's what I call liquidity. Two million Chaos Legion packs are still circulating. Compare that number with the 60k circulating Rebellion packs, and you get an estimate of the difference between the two sets, in terms of print numbers. To make a long story short, you have 5 weeks to decide whether you want to buy more Rebellion packs or not. Afterwards, they will cost more, even if the DAO sells its packs.

Alright, what about this past week's sales? How many Rebellion packs were sold from the official Store? Let's have a look:

Hold on a second. Something else also happened on November 9th. Someone bought 2,278 Rebellion packs! That's more than the average weekly sales of Rebellion. I wonder, who was it? Only one way to find out. The richlist! Here are the screenshots of the richlist before and after this purchase (left and right, respectively):

Two things stand out. Hive account@bravetofu has 600 less Rebellion packs, and Hive account@yabapmatt suddenly takes the 5th place on the Rebellion packs Richlist, even though he wasn't in the top 20 pack holders. It looks like he is the one behind that significant purchase of packs on the 9th of November. That's the very definition of inside information. What we have here is the CEO of the company buying packs for himself, before the Rebellion set runs out of print. It will be very very interesting to see what he does with these packs. Will he open them? Or will he choose to hold them?

As for Hive account@bravetofu, he either sold those packs (I doubt it, unless he sold them to Matt) or he opened them. If it's the latter, I wonder how many Tofu summoners he got, if any.

To sum up, last week the company sold 3,645 packs. To put this into perspective, that's the 26th best day in terms of Rebellion sales. The last day that the company sold more packs than that was on the 27th of February, 2024. A huge shoutout to Hive account@tehox who was kind enough to send me the data with all the Rebellion sales, on a daily basis. Thanks buddy!

Will this trend of increased sales continue in the coming weeks? I guess we'll find out very soon. After all, there are only 5 weeks left. If you think that time is on your side, think again. I'll see you next week!