Above is a Bitcoin vs SPS chart for the last three months and no matter how we love Splinterlands, the picture for the SPS token is quite disappointing. You could argue that Bitcoin is in its own pump while altcoins are really suffering and that is true to some extent, but if we compare the last three months of SPS and Ethereum you will see a similar picture, just not as drastic as with BTC:
If we take a look at the SPS chart for the last year we will see that despite at least three SPS pumps in the last year we still see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows and we are at the lowest point in the last year right now.
This is a bearish chart and it is strongly bearish. This means that SPS throughout the last year has remained in a downtrend despite temporary rallies. When we apply technical analysis to the SPS chart it has to be said that SPS is a small market capitalization token with a thin trading volume which tends to amplify downside moves during the weak market sentiment periods.
Based on this one year chart above I can clearly see a long-term descending channel with upper trendline consistently rejecting rallies and lower boundary of this channel slowly grinding lower.
This is a classic trend exhaustion behavior, where sellers remain in control, but momentum weakens over time. Perhaps we can hold the all time low of $0.004147 that also happens to fall into a major technical support zone of $0.0040 – $0.0042 based on this one year chart.
This zone matters because SPS is near its all time low and selling pressure appears to be slowing while price volatility is declining. But if SPS breaks this support zone in a decisive fashion then downside will open quickly and we can head into a major breakdown zone of: $0.0032 – $0.0035
Setting an all time low and heading decisively lower would also have a very negative psychological effect where it shows that SPS is heading even lower and the price is lower than it has ever been. It would not be a pretty picture if we break the all time low from about two years ago.
We all know that in the hay day of Splinterlands the price was around a dollar and we were in the middle of the crypto-gaming narrative that has not came back since 2021/22. So looking at that time is almost meaningless.
The chart above is what I would call the modern period for Splinterlands and SPS. This represents the last three years. And in these last three years SPS has gone from the peak zone of $0.035 – 0.038 to the current zone of $0.0042 – 0.0045.
This represents an 85 to 90% decline from the local cycle highs and we are more than 99% below the historical all time highs of $1. Even without looking at the historical highs the last three years looks like a classic altcoin bear market.
Technical Pattern
It is not all doom and gloom even on the technical analysis side. Based on the last three years this chart resembles a Descending Accumulation Base technical pattern. This pattern is bullish and showing slowing selling and clearly everyone is loosing interest, but smart money is accumulating here, though this pattern takes time, sometimes years...
Yes SPS chart looks like a forgotten asset with a very long bleed, reduced speculation and community fatigue, but it also represents an accumulation possibility. Short term SPS charts look bearish to neutral, medium term it looks like we have a base building and long term SPS might actually represent a very high risk but also a potentially very high reward opportunity.
Conclusion
Seeing SPS hover at an all time low is not a pretty picture, it doesn't feel good. I don't know if this price or even the all time low that we might see here soon will represent a good buying opportunity, but to me this chart doesn't look like a dead token chart.
Dead token charts usually have a vertical collapse with no bounce attempts and volume and trading going away. SPS chart still shows repeated rebounds, active liquidity, lows that look like support levels and periodic speculation around card set releases.
This suggests that SPS is in a survival mode and we will see in the next six to twelve months if this pattern continues.
I am sticking with Splinterlands and SPS token. I realize that the risk is very high of SPS price going lower in the next three years just like we saw in the last three years, but we know that the Splinterlands team is funded for the next two years, and all it takes is for crypto gaming or play to earn narrative to come back as these narratives in crypto tend to for SPS to become one of the top remaining gaming projects that could see a major pump. So I am betting on SPS and Splinterlands to keep delivering in the next two years and catching another wave.