We are eleven days from the start of Conclave Arcana Presale that starts on April 22nd 2025. I have been with Splinterlands since August of 2021 and I would like to take a look at how Splinterlands Major Set Presales and Sales of a Major Sets have affected the price of SPS tokens.
Chaos Legion Set
Chaos Legion Main Card Set came on December 8th 2021, with Presale of Chaos Legion Set that started on October 18th, 2021.
Chaos Legion is now an infamous major set as it came out when we thought that we had over five hundred thousand active users, so the set had one million packs available during the presale and additional fifteen million packs available during the sale period. We didn't end up selling out of packs as crypto markets crashed and play to earn players have practically disappeared.
We have ended up burning 2,585,132 Chaos Legion packs and sold just under 12.5 million packs. This created a Chaos Legion card glut as we have only around two to five thousand active players in Splinterlands right now.
As you can see Chaos Legion packs were trading at as low as twenty five cents per pack before the Survival mode came out and lead to a pump of around sixty seven cents or more than doubling the price of Chaos Legion packs on Hive Engine before the prices corrected down to around forty five cents where they sit now.
So what happened to SPS and DEC prices during this period?
As you can see from the chart above SPS started making its way up from the lows of twenty two cents around September 15th 2021 with a small pump to thirty one cent around September 18th which resulted in retracement back down to the same 22 cents on September 21st.
Then from September 21st until October 8th we had a non-stop pump of 353% in SPS price until October 10th 2021 which was eight days before the presale date. Then we had some sideways action in SPS until the day of Presale where we almost touched the highs of this pump one more time before we had a steady downward decline back down into the low twenty cent range giving back all the 3.5x gains that we had in SPS.
So far based on Chaos Legion set launch it looks like the best time to sell SPS is on the day pre-sale launches. But we have another data point: Rebellion Set.
Rebellion Set
Rebellion was the fifth core set and presale began almost exactly two years after the Chaos Legion presale on October 19th 2023. Rebellion packs went on general sale on December 5th 2023 and were on sale in the shop until December 19, 2024.
Rebellion was a much smaller set and people who participated in that pre-sale actually made money on buying the packs. I have chosen not to participate in that sale which looking backwards was clearly a mistake.
As you can see from the image above there was only around one million packs that were sold, DAO holds almost nine hundred thousand packs and we burned over eight million packs or 81% of the total Rebellion packs!
This is 12.5 times smaller set than Chaos Legion was, it was also during a pretty low time in Splinterlands. So let's see how the release of Rebellion core set affected SPS price.
With Rebellion we see a completely different picture when it comes to the SPS price action, we saw a very small pump leading up to presale and we saw a major SPS price pump of about 2x when the main Rebellion set launched. It continued rallying past the general launch topping out at around 3.8 cents up from 1.2 cents.
My conclusion here is that with the more recent core set it was worth holding SPS until December 27th of 2023 which was twenty two days after the general sale of the Rebellion started.
I would expect that Conclave Arcana will be more likely to follow the Rebellion set pattern rather than Chaos Legion set pattern.
Where are we now?
We are eleven days away from the start of the presale and we are up around sixty percent from the low of .54 cents on March 10th to a high of almost 0.9 cents today:
As you can see most of the price gains happened in the last three days. If we use Rebellion as a guide we still have plenty of room for SPS to run. We are up about 60% in a 200% runup. That would be a "safe" trading bet here, but there are factors that say that this set could be more successful than Rebellion was and in that case there could be more room for SPS token to run. In his video Presale Simulations Show $SPS will MOON 
In my opinion that might be a bit too optimistic, what do you think?
Regardless of where SPS token goes in this presale I will be accumulating it and I am well on my way to 500k SPS staked:
Long term I am very bullish on Splinterlands and the SPS token, and I believe that we can reach close to our all time highs of $1 per SPS token. Though if we exceed 25 cents I will start locking in some profits as this is a very volatile token.
If you have some staked SPS please vote for my SPS Validator Node HERE
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