There is less than two weeks to go in the SPS airdrop on Splinterlands, which has seen the price see the highs near 1 dollar in the early days, to now circling under 5 cents. But, where will it go from here?
Currently, I have about 280K SPS stake in game, and another 80K paired with DEC on TribalDEX, which has been earning me the majority of my SPS over the last 6 months or so. However, it definitely hasn't covered the price I paid for the DEC, as it has fallen hard as well and is circling the drain. I am unsure what to do with the pooled DEC and SPS, as if I wait til the end of the drop, I will get about another 7000 SPS, but one or both of them could fall straight after.
However, I am not "too worried" by this, as my plan at the moment is to use it to by CL packs with the DEC. This means that if SPS increases in price, I will have more DEC to buy packs with at the 4000:pack price honored by Splinterlands and if SPS drops in price, I have more SPS, either way, that is okay by me. But, this is going to be interesting, because I assume that I am not the only one who will use the DEC to buy packs, meaning there might be a significant jump in Chaos packs sales, but it is also going to soak up a lot of the free-floating DEC out there, which might recover the price of DEC somewhat too, to bring it back to its "peg" of 1:1000.
I will also have 500+ vouchers at that point, which means that I might be in the market for another node, or, I will use them to get additional packs when buying in bulk - or I will save them for Riftwatchers... or....
You see the dilemma?
There are so many possible routes to take and I am Very unsure about which is going to be the best for me under the circumstances. I am also unsure if I should buy some more SPS now, or just be patient and wait, as currently there are 840 million (plus what got burned from node license buys) out of the total 3 Billion, so it is only around a third of the total supply out, so there is still time to gather.
https://sps.splinterlands.com/distribution
SPS isn't being distributed on the Play to Earn model either (will it start now that Wild and Modern formats are out) or the oracles yet, though there are some emissions already on the staking in-game of course and the BSC LPs. While the staking to earn SPS should continue into the future, it is going to be interesting to see if some cards get dumped as they no longer receive rewards, and if people open some of their held packs, which puts more cards on the market anyway.
And, as mentioned, the Wild and Modern format separation is now live and while I haven't played either, it is again going to change the dynamics of the game. The Modern format should be "easier" to enter because the cards are more readily available cheaply. However, because of ease of entry, it also means that competition might be very tight there, because there are less variables in play as people have more complete kits and less holes of missing cards.
Does this mean that the "old timer" players are going to finally struggle more in Modern? Does it mean that there will be less competition in Wild, but due to that, there will be less people to play at the top to get points against? What happens to the rental markets? Will Modern format cards go up in price, while the Alphas and Betas fall, since people can compete at the top of Modern with less cost in rentals?
I don't know, but I haven't entered the battle fray for this season yet, because currently, I just don't have the time to put into it. However, one thing that is interesting to note is that when I did play last, I needed about 7000 DEC worth of rentals a day, but a lot of what I was renting was Alpha and Beta cards. Still, I will have to get a couple maxed summoners to compete in Modern, but I do have a full set of Chaos Legion to play, so I can "save" a bit there. Will this mean that I will play the first part of the season in Modern and than shift over to Wild for the second half?
I am not sure, but splitting the cards needed changes the rental behaviors of thousands of players and most will recalibrate to maximize their profits, including the bots. They are going to be looking at the costs of rentals of course, but also the in-game rewards and how to get the most chests on daily Focus and for EOS rewards. While this is not the game I play, it is definitely a game within the game that many are spending an inordinate amount of time optimizing - so it must be worth it to them, right?
What has been interesting with the new reward mechanisms is, I think that the Energy Capture Rate has become less important for many people, as they don't seem to worry as much about the DEC earned during individual battles, as they do about the focus chests they get. Is this because of the value of DEC is declining? Would it change if SPS was also earned on battles?
It is hard to say where it is going to go, but I have so many questions, so few answers and still a lot of hope that in the next year, with all the development taking place and the possibility of the start of a new bull era, things are going to get WILD.
I'd really like to hear different opinions on how people see the Splinterlands ecosystem dynamics changing.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]