But no users!
For the last few days/weeks I have been thinking about if it is reasonable for me to support the current DHF proposal by Leo Team. So I went in and analyzed the publicly available data to understand if the thousands of new users that they are claiming, are users contributing to the hive blockchain, or just an empty 'account', occupying blockchain space. Turns out, just like space is mostly empty, the promise provided by Leo is also mostly empty.
Generated with AI, GROK: Prompt Draw a galaxy, in a nebula
This will be the conclusion post based on the three previous posts:
Finally, this post; where I compiled all active level 1 commenters from all threads in January 2025.
- This include a total of 29086 comments
- 2108 unique comments/accounts
- 1499 of those accounts created between Jan 1, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025 or 13 months
Again to remind people, my goal is to test a hypothesis:
Most of the new Leo onboards do not hold any meaningful hive or Leo assets
Also I like to understand, what percentage on the toal users 'most' is.
Data Analysis
By now you are familiar with the method, so hopefully no explanation is needed. Below are the X-Y scatter plot of those 2108 accounts, circle size is posting rewards just for reference.
By now this chart and annotations should be self-explanatory. I am not interested in accounts which are created between 2016-2024, as they are legacy users. Leo onboarding proposal was funded most of the year 2024, and they have onboarded many users they claim. What I will show you, all they have done is they have created accounts. What is worse, potentially this is a net drain into the system, and works as net negative to hive.
We will focus on 2024-25 account data, but before I do, there is something else that may interest you.
This is the Total Hive vs Total Leo scatterplot on log-log scale, circle size is posting rewards. Here what I like to point out is the y=20x straight line. That is the "equivalent value" line, as 1 hive = 20 LEO (cuurently). People who plot above the line are underweight in hive. People who plot below the line are overweight in hive. Most users are overweight in hive, that doesn't give a lot of confidence to Leo, even for the hardcore Leo legacy users.
Frequency Distribution
Here is the table for 2024-25 created Leo accounts. There are 1499 accounts.
You should be familiar with this type of plot and table by now. The table and plot shows:
- 62% of the new users hold less than 1 hive
- 92% of the new users hold less than 20 Leo
It is widely understood that active users of hive is between 8000-12000 (depending on your measuring basis). If we just think about Leo, the most reliable 3rd party source is probably 
According to this plot:
13.2k unique accounts have posted from InLeo
- My sample size for new users is 1499
- 1499/13,200 -> 11% of the data
I say that is a VERY LARGE sample.
Therefore, this sample is a good representation of the population.
So my conclusion from this analysis is new Leo users neither hold any hive nor Leo, and a lot of them had months of time to accumulate. 13 months for some to be exact. However, they sold. If we pay "signup with Dash wallet, get paid in hive" initiative, and any similar ones, recently discussed on this post.
The integration should give DASH users Lite accounts on HIVE and allow them to automatically covert their Hive and LEO earnings straight to their DASH Wallets.
I say we open a small leak :)
Is there anyone who is holding?
Yes there are some. If we consider 500 Total hive is a 'reasonable' amount of asset to be 'meaningful', the following new users holds more than 500 hive.
I count 20 new users holding more than 500 hive.
How about Leo? How many are holding 10,000 Leo (as that is equivalent to 500 hive)?
Sorry folks! I count only 5!!
Someone please sent these five flowers!
So in conslusion I think I have positively tested my hypothesis with proper data analysis.
Most of the new Leo onboards do not hold any meaningful hive or Leo assets
- 62% of the new users hold less than 1 hive
- 92% of the new users hold less than 20 Leo
PS. All this data is publicly available. I have used 
PS. Remember my random single thread sample of 125? That led to this hypothesis. Turns out that simple small sample, randomly selected, was incredibly accurate! It predicted 57%. Current prediction is 62%. I say within 5% is pretty good!
That ladies and gentle why statistics is a science. It can predict outcomes (within a range of probability obviously)!
