2024 has been quite the ride for the Hive inflation. Lets take a look at the data!
The projected inflation for Hive for 2024 is 6% on a yearly basis, or 0.5% on a monthly basis.
Hive has a double currency system, HIVE and HBD, with conversions between them that add or remove HIVE from circulation on top of the regular inflation. Furthermore, the decentralized hive fund DHF, that serves as a DAO converts the HIVE that is in the DHF into HBD.
The 
Because of this additional mechanics the HIVE inflation and supply can be drastically different in real time than the regular/projected one.
To be able to follow the HIVE supply we need to take a look at all the different ways HIVE is created, author, curation, witness rewards, conversions etc, then net that out with the HIVE burned from conversions, accounts fees, null transfers etc. To get the virtual supply we need to do the same for the HBD supply as well.
HIVE Created
Here is the chart.
The chart above includes:
- Author rewards
- Curation rewards
- Witness rewards
- Staking rewards
These are the regular ways new Hive enters circulation, and all of them are through vested HIVE, aka powered up. You can notice the slight fluctuations in the daily amounts that is connected with the virtual hive supply, or the base for the inflation. When the price of HIVE is low, the virtual hive supply increases, and when it is up, the virtual hive supply decreases.
In the last month the new Hive dropped to the increase in the HIVE price. Also, hopefully this will be the last year when we have this price dependent inflation. If everything goes as we hope, there should be a HardFork in Q1 of 2025 and the virtual supply should be removed as a basis for inflation.
The thing is the conversions are playing a major role in the ecosystem. Here is the chart again, including conversions.
We can notice that the HBD to HIVE conversions are the dominant in the chart. This works in both ways and a big part of them is converted back to HIVE, especially through the work of the stabilizer.
The regular inflation has been in the range of 70k to 80k in 2024, with an average of 73k for the whole year.
On the other hand, the net conversions averaged around 48k per day.
HIVE Removed from Circulation
Here is the chart.
The above takes into consideration six different ways of HIVE removed:
- Ninja Mined HIVE To HBD Conversions In DHF
- HIVE transfers to DHF and converted to HBD
- Transfers to null
- Null as post beneficiary
- New accounts creation fee
- HIVE to HBD conversions
The HIVE transfers to the DHF are now dominant. These are transfers made by the stabilizer. We can see a few spikes in the HIVE to HBD conversions (blue) in 2023. These were due to the increase in the HBD price. We can also notice the drop in recent months, same as the opposite conversions due to the low volumes that the stabilizer is doing.
Historical HIVE Supply
When all the above is added and removed, we get this chart for the all-time HIVE supply.
Up until August 2021, the supply was almost steadily increasing with a small fluctuation. Then a drop in the supply in September 2021. Since then, from time to time we can see some drops in the supply with the recent happening in February and April 2023.
December 2024 ended with 463M HIVE in circulation.
HBD Supply
Here is the chart for the HBD supply.
The light color is HBD in the DHF. The HBD in the DHF is not freely circulating HBD and only enters circulation when payouts to the DHF workers are made.
HBD is being created and removed in various ways, but the conversions play the major role here in both directions. Other ways HBD is created are DHF proposal payouts, author rewards and interest.
We can see that after a downtrend in 2021, in the last years the HBD supply has been in a tight range between 10M to 11M. At the beginning of 2024 there was 11M HBD and the year ended with 10.8M HBD in circulation. Almost no change.
Virtual HIVE Supply
When we add the HIVE equivalent supply from the HBD to the HIVE supply we get the chart below.
The light color is HIVE that in theory can be converted from HBD at the current market prices for HIVE.
We can see that the virtual supply fluctuates a lot, mostly because it is tied to the price of HIVE. As the price of HIVE drops, the virtual supply increases and the opposite. Towards the end of the year we have a decrease in the virtual supply due the HIVE price appreciation.
When we zoom in 2023 - 2024 we get this:
In 2023 and 2024 the virtual supply has increased because of the drop in the HIVE price. In the last month we have a decrease in the virtual supply to due the uptrend of the HIVE price.
Projected VS Realized HIVE Inflation in 2024
This chart tells the story of the new HIVE entering circulation in 2024.
Up to June the realized inflation was close to the projected one, but then in June the Hive price dropped sharply and there was a lot of conversions happening, the virtual supply increased resulting in overall more HIVE put in circulation then the projected one. The year ended with 43M HIVE put in circulation, with the supply increasing from 420M to 463M. The projected new HIVE for the year was at 26M.
Monthly Inflation
If we plot the monthly inflation in 2024, we get this.
We can see that all the months were positive, with the summer months being the highest. More than 1% monthly inflation in the summer months, while the projected one on a monthly level is at 0.5%. December 2024 ended somewhat low with 0.57%.
Yearly Inflation
The yearly, projected and realized inflation looks like this.
After a while 2024 has been a year with higher inflation than the projected one. A projected one of 6% and a realized of 9.5%. Last time this happened was in 2020, when the realized was close to 12%. At least we managed to stay in a single digit this time.
Net HIVE Created by Category in 2024
Here is the new HIVE put in circulation by category for the year.
Conversions are on the top with more than 17.5M HIVE added in circulation from conversions in 2024. Conversions are the main reason for the distorted inflation. Its understandable when we consider that there was around 6M HBD added in circulation in 2024, while the HBD supply remained stagnant at 11M, meaning all the new HBD was converted to HIVE.
On the second spot we have the curation rewards with 11.6M followed by the author rewards etc. Some small amounts were burned, with setting null as beneficiary for posts and from account creation fees.
For a change 2025 is now on a good start, with the HIVE price increasing. The Hive inflation is set to go down 0.5% each year, meaning for 2025 it is projected at 5.5%. If we implement the change from the virtual HIVE supply to regular in the next HardFork this will further increase the predictability. Of course with the dual currency system and conversions at layer one, the unpredictability factor will remain, but overall 2025 should be better than 2024.
