In the last decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative asset to a totally new asset class that is now recognized by institutional investors. The price volatility still remains but it has been going down significantly in the last period and increasingly the Bitcoin price started to behave like some of the traditional markets, especially the tech companies.
How does Bitcoin’s price behave in relation to traditional financial markets? Does Bitcoin act as a hedge like gold, or is it more closely linked to equity markets like NASDAQ?
Another important metric that has emerged in correlation with Bitcoin is the global liquidity supply (money), aka money printing. Bitcoin has been especially sensitive to the money supply.
Here we will explore the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and three key indicators of traditional markets:
- the NASDAQ index,
- gold, and
- global liquidity supply (M2 money supply).
Bitcoin vs NASDAQ: A Tech-Companies Correlation?
NASDAQ is one of the most important stock market indices, representing a large portion of the tech-heavy sector in the United States. Given Bitcoin's rise among retail investors and its popularity as a "tech" asset, it has started to behave a lot like NASDAQ. After all, both are volatile and often affected by similar factors such as macroeconomic trends, interest rates, and investor sentiment.
In the following chart we will take a look at Bitcoin vs NASDAQ price movements over time for the period of 2014 to 2026.
The above is the chart for the prices of the both assets. It is a chart with double axes values with BTC price on the left and the NASDAQ value on the right.
From observing the price of the two we can see that there is some correlation, especially in the second half of the chart starting from 2020 up to 2025. Both assets seem to peak in 2021 and then dropped in 2022 with Bitcoin with stronger moves on both sides. Since then, we can notice the recovery in 2023 and 2024, both assets increased in value.
We can also notice at the very end of the chart in the last few months, Bitcoin dropped a lot, while the drop in NASDAQ happened later and on much smaller scale.
Pearson correlation coefficient!
This coefficient is used to measure a correlation between two values. It is in the range of -1 to 1. A positive correlation indicates that Bitcoin and NASDAQ tend to move in the same direction, while a negative correlation suggests the opposite. The coefficient value can range from -1 to 1, where 1 is a perfect positive correlation, 0 is no correlation, and -1 is a perfect negative correlation.
Here is the chart for this coefficient for BTC and NASDAQ.
The strong white is a one year rolling coefficient, meaning it is based on the past year’s performance of the two assets, while the doted pale is the 90 days coefficient. We can notice that the short term is much more volatile. For the purpose of this analysis, we will focus on the yearly one.
We can notice that the last time these two moved in opposite direction was back in 2019. Since then, the two are moving in the same direction, but with different intensity. There was a drop in the coefficient in 2022 from 0.8 to 0.15. Since then, it recovered and was close to 1 in the last few years up to recently when the correlation broke again and it even touched a mildly negative correlation in the last period. A sharp drop at the end of the chart.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Analog VS Digital Money
Gold has long been regarded as a safe haven asset, especially in times of economic instability. As inflation fears rise, gold traditionally becomes more attractive. Bitcoin has been called the digital gold but with significant differences in its volatility.
In the following chart we will take a look at Bitcoin vs Gold price movements over time for the period of 2014 to 2025.
A much smoother ride for Gold in this period. Although it has stayed relatively stable for a long period around 1300 USD, then it has increased in 2020, closing on 2k and it went parabolic in last year and reached new ATH with more than 5k.
For Bitcoin we can see the peaks in 2017, then in 2021 and again recently 2024-2025, and sharp drop in the recent months.
From the chart above we cannot see a clear correlation between the two, except maybe for the period of 2024 and the first half of 2025 up to October when both increased in price.
Pearson coefficient for BTC VS GOLD
Here is the chart for the coefficient for these two.
A very volatile first half of the chart, with no clear patterns up to 2020. This is understandable since Bitcoin is still new in the period.
Since 2020 we can see a drop at first and even negative correlation in 2022, when BTC was falling and GOLD rising. In 2022-2024 there was some correlation for the two, but in the last six months this correlation drooped of the cliff and went negative, meaning Gold rising and Bitcoin failing at the same time.
Bitcoin vs Global Liquidity Supply: How Money Printing Affects Bitcoin
This is something that most of the Bitcoiners are calling for. Whenever the money printer is turned on, Bitcoin increases in price. Some have even said that Bitcoin is now an index for global liquidity.
Let’s take a look at the chart. First the data for the Bitcoin price and the global liquidity, or M2 as it called for short.
From the first glance at this chart, we can notice that there might be some correlation in the previous bull market when the global liquidity started growing in 2020 and increased from 80T to 100T in less then a year, and Bitcoin went up in price. In the next period, especially in 2022 there was a drop in the liquidity and Bitcoin dropped a lot
In the last period Bitcoin dropped while the global liquidity is slightly up again.
Pearson coefficient for BTC VS M2
Here is the chart for the coefficient for these two.
There is a lot of volatility here with no significant periods for correlation, for at least few years.
In the last period, similar as for the other two assets due to the drop in the Bitcoin price the correlation went negative.
While many of the macro analysis are calling for a Bitcoin liquidity index, this obviously is not the case, at least not yet. There is no clear established pattern between the two. From time to time the two can move in the same direction and have high correlations, but it’s usually short lived. Maybe this will change going forward but for now it’s not the case.
Bitcoin Correlations Summary
From the above charts we can notice that some patterns started emerging after 2020 and mostly for the yearly rolling window correlation. The short 90 days are still volatile. When we plot all the three major assets for the period of 2020 to 2025 and only on a yearly basis we get this.
At high level overview for the last five-year period, Bitcoin is obviously mostly corelated with NASDAQ. Investors have been treating Bitcoin as another tech stock in the period. It’s probably expected.
Prior to the recent drop in price, Bitcoin has increased its correlation both with Gold and NASDAQ and had a few years with high correlation with these two assets. But as the drop in the Bitcoin price happened since October 2025, all the correlation to these assets dropped of the cliff.
The decoupling narrative has happened in the Bitcoin price, but unfortunately in the opposite direction. While the price of NADAQ, GOLD, M2 grew or remained stable, Bitcoin is the only one that dropped. Interestingly the other assets, mainly NASDAQ and GOLD are also starting to go down after Bitcoin dropped, so maybe BTC was the early bird. Time will tell.
