HivePredict Update: Category Metrics, Basket Indexes, Relative Performance, and Smarter Auto-Resolution

HivePredict just got a major expansion to auto-resolved markets.

Until now, auto-resolution focused mostly on single-asset price questions like:

• Will BTC be above $100,000 by June 30?
• Will HIVE stay above $0.06 this week?

That still works, but HivePredict can now go much further.

What’s New

HivePredict now supports four major kinds of CoinGecko-driven auto markets:

1. Single assets
2. CoinGecko categories
3. Custom baskets and index-style markets
4. Curated starter templates for faster authoring
5. Relative-performance comparison markets
6. Saved custom basket templates tied to your account

This means you can create markets around much broader questions, including:

• Will the Layer 1 category market cap be above a target by resolution?
• Will DeFi category volume rise above a threshold?
• Will the average 24h move across a basket of tokens be positive?
• Will a custom Hive index have more than 60% of its constituents green over 24 hours?
• Will Layer 1 outperform DeFi on average 24h momentum at resolution?

CoinGecko Category Markets

Category-based auto markets are now first-class.

Instead of resolving only from an individual coin, HivePredict can resolve directly from CoinGecko categories such as:

• Layer 1
• DeFi
• RWA
• Meme
• Any other supported CoinGecko category

Available category metrics now include:

• Market cap
• 24h volume
• 24h market cap change percentage
• Average 24h price change percentage
• Median 24h price change percentage
• Top 5 equal-weight 24h return

That opens the door to markets like:

• Will the Layer 1 category market cap be above $2T by Friday?
• Will the RWA category average 24h change be positive at resolution?
• Will the Layer 1 top-5 equal-weight return stay positive by resolution?

Custom Basket and Index Markets

This is the biggest addition.

HivePredict now supports custom CoinGecko baskets using multiple explicit coin IDs in one auto-resolution source. In practice, that means you can define your own mini index and resolve a market against it.

Examples:

• A Hive ecosystem basket
• An anime token basket
• A doge-clone basket
• A custom “top conviction” index

Basket markets currently support these metrics:

• Average price
• Total market cap
• Total 24h volume
• Average 24h price change percentage
• Median 24h price change percentage
• Top 3 equal-weight 24h return
• Top 5 equal-weight 24h return
• Percentage of constituents up over 24 hours

That last one is especially useful because it lets you ask breadth-style questions instead of only absolute price questions.

For example:

• Will at least 60% of this basket be green over 24 hours at resolution?
• Will the average 24h move across this basket be above 3%?

Faster Authoring with Starter Templates and Category Discovery

The backend data expansion is useful on its own, but it becomes much more practical when market creation does not require memorising raw category ids or building every basket from scratch.

HivePredict now ships with curated starter templates for:

• Layer 1 market cap
• Layer 1 24h volume
• Layer 1 average 24h change
• Majors breadth
• Majors average change
• Hive + majors breadth
• Hive Core market cap
• Hive Ecosystem breadth
• Hive Ecosystem momentum
• Hive Ecosystem median change
• Hive Ecosystem top 3 return
• Hive Ecosystem 24h volume
• Hive Games momentum
• Layer 1 vs DeFi momentum
• Layer 1 vs DeFi relative momentum
• HIVE vs Bitcoin 24h change
• Hive Core vs Majors breadth
• Hive Ecosystem vs Layer 1

Applying a template pre-fills the source mode, metric, threshold, operator, and basket constituents while still leaving everything editable.

The create flow now also includes searchable CoinGecko category cards with live market cap, 24h volume, and 24h market-cap change context, so category markets can be discovered visually instead of typed from memory.

Logged-in creators can now also save their own basket and basket-comparison setups from the create page. That means niche ideas like an Anime basket, a doge-clone basket, or a custom Hive watchlist no longer need to be rebuilt every time from scratch.

Relative-Performance Markets

HivePredict can now resolve markets from the relationship between two CoinGecko sources instead of only checking whether one metric clears a fixed threshold.

That means you can create markets like:

• Will the Layer 1 category outperform DeFi on average 24h change by resolution?
• Will the Layer 1 category outperform DeFi on average 24h change by at least 25% on a relative basis?
• Will HIVE outperform BTC on 24h change at resolution?
• Will the Hive Core basket beat the majors basket on breadth?

Under the hood, these markets resolve from a comparison source and either:

• an absolute spread rule, or
• a relative percentage outperformance rule

rather than a simple metric >= X threshold.

That gives HivePredict a cleaner path toward sector-vs-sector and basket-vs-basket questions without needing to fake those ideas as standalone price markets.

Better Use of CoinGecko Premium Data

This update makes much better use of CoinGecko beyond basic spot price resolution.

HivePredict is no longer limited to “coin price above or below X.” It can now resolve against broader market structure and group behavior, which creates more interesting prediction markets and gives category-level and basket-level data real value on the platform.

Safer Auto-Resolution Rules

Expanding auto-resolution only makes sense if the rules stay strict and predictable, so this update also fixes two important correctness issues.

Invalid metric/source combinations are now rejected up front

Previously, it was possible to create an invalid market configuration, such as pairing a category source with a metric that only makes sense for a single coin.

That is now blocked at creation time and in admin edits. If a source and metric do not belong together, the market will not be accepted.

Large category averages no longer silently resolve on partial samples

Average category change is now handled more explicitly.

HivePredict increases the sampling ceiling for large CoinGecko categories, but if a category is still too large to compute safely within the configured bound, the resolver now fails clearly instead of silently resolving from an incomplete subset.

That keeps category-based markets defensible and auditable.

Admins now get clearer validation guidance when auto-resolution fails

When a comparison or aggregate market fails validation, the admin queue and market detail page now explain what needs to change.

Examples include:

• choosing a supported metric for the selected source kind
• switching a head-to-head market to a real compare: source
• aligning quote currencies
• adding enough basket constituents for top-N metrics
• avoiding unsafe large-category aggregate resolution

That makes it much easier to tell the difference between a true data problem and a market-definition problem.

What This Means for Market Creators

You can now build markets around:

• Sector strength
• Basket performance
• Index-style breadth
• Hive-native ecosystem baskets
• Relative momentum inside a theme
• Custom token group behavior
• Faster template-driven authoring without hand-building every setup
• Reusing your own saved basket templates for recurring market ideas

In other words, HivePredict is moving from simple asset-price questions toward a richer market intelligence layer.

Example Market Ideas

• Will the Layer 1 category market cap stay above $2 trillion by April 15?
• Will the average 24h price change across the Anime basket be positive at resolution?
• Will at least 4 out of 5 Hive index constituents be green over 24 hours?
• Will the total 24h volume across a meme basket exceed $10 billion?
• Will the Hive Ecosystem basket have at least two-thirds of constituents green at resolution?
• Will the Hive Ecosystem median 24h change stay positive by Friday?
• Will the Hive Ecosystem top 3 equal-weight return beat +1% at resolution?
• Will Hive Games momentum stay positive into the weekend?
• Will the Layer 1 category outperform DeFi on 24h momentum by resolution?
• Will the Layer 1 category outperform DeFi on 24h momentum by at least 25%?
• Will HIVE beat BTC on 24h percentage change this week?

What’s Next

This update moves HivePredict closer to a real market-intelligence layer instead of a simple price-threshold tool. The next frontier now is:

• Community-shared templates instead of account-local saved templates only
• More Hive-native indexes and themed baskets
• More starter packs built around niche sectors and creator-curated watchlists
• Richer comparison and ranking market formats beyond two-way outperform/underperform checks

HivePredict started with single-market questions. It can now model sectors, themes, baskets, head-to-head spreads, and curated quick-start setups as well.

Check out HivePredict if you haven't already.