What if the Covid-19 pandemic didn't happen? How would the world be? How would things be different? How would my life be? I'm sure these are questions that has surfaced in everyones minds over the last year.
I can see this being a topic that's easy to get lost in. The Covid-19 pandemic is the biggest event to have happened in our lifetime. It's changed our lives in ways many of us probably couldn't start to imagine.
I'll be doing a deep dive into how the UEFA European Championship (EUROs) could have played out if it wasn't cancelled this year. I'll be taking a look at the tournament as a whole starting with the group stages all the way to the finals. I'll be using the Telegraph's Wallchart Predictor to simulate the tournament.
This post is part of the Alternate History challenge. There's a prize of 30 HIVE involved to the winner. As of me making this post there's only one other entry in the challenge. There's still a couple of days to go though so I'm hoping we'll see a boom of entries towards the end.
I'm gonna warn you straight away that this is a long post. I was gonna take a quick look at how the EUROs could have turned out but instead I delved way to deep down into the rabbit hole. I had such a great time simulating the entire competition and looking up stats that I ended up creating my very own edition of the EUROs.
EUROs 2020
One of the things that was supposed to take place in 2020 was the UEFA EUROs. This edition was set to be a special one. This year would mark the 60 year anniversary of the competition with the first edition being held in the year 1960. Normally the EUROs are hosted by a single country but for 2020 it was set for a Pan-European celebration with several cities all around Europe as hosts. The matches would be played all over Europe before concluding with the semi-final and finals at Wembley Stadium in London.
Sadly, the competition was cancelled and we all know why. But how would it have turned out? Let's start with the group stages.
Group stages
The group stages would have been played in a number of countries around Europe. We would have seen matches being played in, Azerbaijan, Denmark, England, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Ireland, Romania, Russia, Scotland and Spain.
The group stages play out pretty much the same way a normal league would. Instead of playing against each others twice, each team will face off once. That means each team will be playing three matches in the group stages. A win records 3 points, a draw 1 and a loss 0. The two teams who top out their group advances to the round of 16 alongside the four best third-placed teams.
Group A
It's quite easy to put Italy in the top of group A. Italy had won pretty much all of it's 10 prior matches going into the EUROs. They were looking like a really strong side. I'm gonna put Turkey in the bottom of this group with Wales and Switzerland battling it out for the second place. Two strong teams with a lot of individually good players. Bale and Ramsey are strong for Wales but they can't carry a team alone.
Group B
Belgium were the clear favorites in this group, being on the same run of good form as Italy with 10 straight wins. Denmark is a clear favorite for second place in my book. They're a strong team that seldom loses. I would predict Russia in third place and Finland in last.
Group C
Another group featuring a clear favorite in the Netherlands. They're simply the strongest team with a lot of individually great players that has shown over the years that they function great as team. Or have they? The Netherlands has failed to qualify for the last two major tournaments and this will be their first time in 6 years playing in one. I'll be placing them in first place nonetheless, and it's mostly to do with the opposition. The rest of the group is a gamble to be sure but if I were to guess I would say Austria in second, Ukraine in third and North Macedonia in fourth.
Group D
The first thriller group. Both England and Croatia are favorites here. Croatia had a fantastic World Cup run in 2018 where they placed 2nd after losing in the finals. Englands form has varied a lot over the last couple of years but they've looked strong over the last year. It could very well end in a tie with 7 points to each team, but if I were to guess I would say England would prevail on top. Czech Republic for third and Scotland for fourth.
Group E
Spain were the clear favorites to top out this group. They won the EUROs back to back in 2008 and 2012, winning the World Cup in between then in 2010 as well. That's with a whole other team than what would be playing in the EUROs though. Since then their form has been relatively poor, ending their World Cup and EUROs runs in the group stages or round of 16. I still see them winning the group though. I would put Poland in second, Sweden in third and Slovakia in fourth. Lewandowski would have seen to Polands success.
Group F
The group of death. The group with the roughest competition. Germany won the World Cup in 2014, made it to the semi-finals in the EUROs in 2016 but has been very poor since then. In the World Cup of 2018 they didn't even make it past the group stages. Portugal has been proving itself as a strong team over the last years being the current holders and last winners of the EUROs from 2016. They did however not make it past the round of 16 in the 2018 World Cup. France are the current holders of the World Cup which they won in 2018, and they placed 2nd in the 2016 EUROs. Most likely would have been the strongest team in the competition if it took place. I'm placing France on top, Portugal in second, Germany in third and finally Hungary in fourth.
Third places
As mentioned the four best third placed teams also advance to the round of 16. It's hard to predict, but out of the six groups I think Wales, Russia, Ukraine and Sweden has the best chance to round up the most points.
Round of 16
With the group stages done we're moving on to the round of 16. This is the beginning of the knockout phase and pits the teams advancing from the group stages against each others. In these matches the winner takes it all and advances to the next stage. It's also the first round of the tournament featuring extra periods and penalty shootouts if the match ends in a draw.
Who plays who has already been determined. The runner up of group A will play the runner up of group B. The winner of group A will play the runner up of group C. The list goes on but how the round of 16 would have played out with my predictions can be seen below.
The round of 16 would have been played in Denmark, Hungary, Netherlands, Ireland, Romania, Scotland and Spain.
Italy vs. Austria
It's hard to see Italy loosing this one. Austria isn't a bad team in any way but Italy are just that strong. The last 15 matches between these two teams, spanning a time period of 62 years Austria has won just two matches. It has ended in a draw three times and Italy has won the remaining 10. Austria hasn't beaten Italy since the year 1960! I see no reason as to why that would change this year. Italy wins.
Switzerland vs. Denmark
A match that could swing both ways but in my eyes Denmark are the favorites to win by a small margin. Denmark are on a run of form having won 5 out of their 6 last matches. Switzerland on the other hand have won just 1 out of their last 6, loosing 3. Head to head Denmark won the last match against Switzerland in 2019. I'm going with Denmark for this one.
Belgium vs. Wales
This would have been an exciting match. Belgium are a strong side and clearly the team out of the two with the best depth. Wales does have some wildcard players though that could pull out a masterclass. Looking at the head to head stats of the two teams Wales has won the last two clashes. Still, they haven't played against each other since 2016. Since then Kevin De Bruyne has become one of the absolute best players in the world while Gareth Bale has been losing form. Still, I'm giving Wales the benefit of the doubt. Wales to win!
Holland vs. Sweden
Another match that would have been fun to see. Holland would be the favorites in this one for sure. Sweden are, for some reason, always deemed the underdog and secret favorites in any competition they partake in even without getting far. The highest Sweden has ever made it in both the EUROs and the World Cup are the quarter finals. I don't think they'd manage that this year though. Holland has the better depth and should be the better team. Holland to win.
Croatia vs. Poland
Quality matches lining up. These teams haven't played against each other in 12 years. The last time was in 2008 where Croatia was the winner. Croatia does however, in my opinion, have the squad with the most depth and quality overall. Poland has what is currently perhaps the worlds best striker in Lewandowski but one player can't do it all. Croatia to win.
France vs. Russia
It's been more than 20 years since France and Russia faced off in a competitive setting. The last time that happened Russia won. They have however played two friendlies since then in 2016 and 2018 where France won both. France would likely beat Russia again this time although not necessarily with ease. France just has such a quality team right now. Mbappe, Pogba, Zouma, Rabiot, Griezmann, Coman, Giroud. It doesn't make sense that they would lose. France to win.
Spain vs. Ukraine
A match where Spain would usually be the favorites but Ukraine actually beat them the last time they played. Ukraine is however a team that loses more matches than they win in these competitions. With a Spain team that's seen better days and are out of form I think we'd be in for a thriller but in the end Spain would see it through. Spain to win.
England vs. Portugal
Without a doubt the most exciting match in the round of 16. Two of the big ones clashing together. One advancing to the next stage. The other taking the next flight home. Both teams had been showing a run of great form coming up on the EUROs. England has been utilizing a lot of their young talent lately while Portugal has been growing in strength in recent years. In what would be a rough match, possibly going into extra periods I'm gonna go with Portugal for this one. Portugal to win.
Quarter-finals
That brings us down to the quarter-finals. The big and intense matches are starting to form and we're in for a real treat. As with the last round who would play who was already determined. The winners of match A would play the winners of match B and so forth.
The quarter finals would have been played in Azerbaijan, Germany, Italy and Russia.
We would have seen the following matching.
Croatia vs. France
A big one! A repeat of the 2018 World Cup final! France won that one and without a lot of trouble really. They were up to 3-1 within 60 minutes and won the match 4-2. An interesting stat to note here is that Croatia has in fact never beaten France in any tournament or friendly football match ever. They've played 8 times where as France has won 6 and 2 ended in a draw. They would have faced off against each other with much the same squads as last time although Croatia would be missing Mandzukic. I will however call it the end of the line for Croatia here. France to win.
Wales vs. Italy
Another big one. Wales got the better of Belgium in the fourth round but will be facing an even greater challenger in Italy. While Wales managed to trump out a victory against Belgium I don't think they can do the same against Italy. Italy will win this one.
Holland vs. Denmark
At this time Denmark will be the clear underdogs of the tournament. To have made it this far is already a victory in itself. A fact to note is that Denmark actually won the EUROs in 1992, but that's an era ago. Since then they've only made it to the quarter finals once, in 2004, and even failed to qualify in 2008 and 2016. A team of changing form to say the least. There's a lot of quality players coming out of Denmark but Holland is the clear favorite. Holland to win.
Spain vs. Portugal
Another big one! This match could have been a final in itself. Spain vs. Portugal. Battle of the neighbours. Spain has been dominating Portugal for up until the 2000s when it started swinging a bit. Portugal has been growing in strength and their squad is gaining more and more depth with each passing year. Ronaldo isn't losing any form and Bruno Fernandez has risen to new heights. I'm going with Portugal to win this one.
Semi-finals
As if quarter-finals isn't exciting enough the semi-finals are on a whole other level. It's the final match on the long road to the top. Only the finals left after this one. Anything is possible.
We're leaving the rest of Europe now and moving on to England where the rest of the competition will be played. Both semi-finals and the grand final will take place on Wembley Stadium in London.
Surely, if Wales would have made it this far they would have won the whole thing. If there's one thing Aaron Ramsey is good at it's scoring goals at Wembley Stadium.
France vs. Italy
A classic to be sure. This would have been the 37th time France and Italy would have clashed. Out of the 37 matches Italy has won 18, France has won 11 and they've drawn 8 times. Actually, in the first 24 matches from 1910 to 1978 these teams played each other Italy won 16 of them. Clearly being the dominant side. Come 1982 it all turned around and in the next 13 matches from 1982 to 2018 France has won 9 out of the 13 played.
I've already marked France as my clear favorites in this tournament, but that doesn't mean I've just sent them to the top on purpose. I've carefully thought out every match and had they met other opponents further down the line they wouldn't necessarily have made it this far. But they have.
I think France would continue their display against Italy and beat them in a match that would have been remember for years to come. France to win.
Holland vs. Portugal
Just the thought that this could have been a match last summer is sending shivers down my spine. God I love football! The facts here are that Holland has ever only beaten Portugal twice. Once in 1991 and once in 2018. Portugal has won 8 and 4 matches has ended in a draw.
While Holland has a great team Portugal has the stronger team in my opinion. After not even qualifying for the EUROs in 2016 and again, shockingly, for the World Cup in 2018 they're already lucky to have made it this far. Had they met tougher opponents earlier in the tournament they would have been gone already. Sorry Holland.
Portugal to win.
Finals - France vs. Portugal
Here we are. The big one. The end of the road. The match we've all been waiting for. The culmination on an entire month of top quality football. It's all come down to this. The finals. It's the winner of the 2018 World Cup against the winner of the 2016 EUROs. France vs. Portugal.
As mentioned this last and final match of the tournament would have been played at Wembley Stadium in London. The streets would have been flowing with blue and red. Every pub would have been filled to the brim. It would be pure chaos and it would have been spectacular.
How does one even begin to analyze and predict a match like this one? I might even roll the dice to decide. The two teams are both world class. They have amazing depth and some insane quality in all parts of the pitch. It's the worlds best attackers against the worlds best defenders in both ends.
The more I think about this one the more I'm leaning towards Portugal winning. France is a really strong side but there's something about the mentality of the Portuguese players that makes them a favorite of mine in this match. How can any team that has Bruno Fernandez serving goal-scoring opportunities to Cristiano Ronaldo lose?
I'm sorry France. Portugal to win.
Going against the flow
I wrote this post before checking out other predictions of how the EUROs could have ended up being. Most outlets put France and Belgium as the top favorites, with France just ahead. After going through the wallchart prediction I was delivered a stat at the end. Most people predicted France to win at 18% and only 7% agreed with me that Portugal would win it. Interesting stat for sure.
We will however get to see the EUROs played this summer, hopefully. It could get postponed once again. If we get to see it play out I'm gonna remember this prediction post of mine. It'd be fun to see how far off I actually was.
The statistics used in this post has been taken from 11v11 and Who Scored?. All graphics of who would have won and lost has been taken from The Telegraph. Everything else should be sourced throughout the post.
That concludes the 2020 UEFA European Football Championship. This ended up being a three times longer post than what I had planned. The longest post I have ever written. I feel sorry for 
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