This is especially true in Chiang Mai, which used to be one of the most popular places for the Chinese to vacation to. A few years ago, pre-Covid, it seemed at though this entire city's tourism sector was geared primarily towards the Chinese, who flocked here in vast numbers.
There are a lot of reasons why people think this is the case with the Chinese choosing not to come to Thailand anymore and I also don't believe that the drop is merely 15%. I live in one of the previous hotspots for Chinese tourism and you don't see them in anywhere near the sort of numbers that you used to.
Thailand loves to play the victim and act surprised when things like this happen but I have a different take on why the Chinese have slowed down or stopped coming to Thailand and these reasons are things that the Tourism Authority of Thailand and the Thai government would never acknowledge.
Thailand claims things like a shift in youth interests in Chinese culture and one of my favorites is how they will say that the Thai Baht is a strong currency and that's why people are not coming from China. These are both convenient excuses but here is what I believe has really happened.
Thailand has abused Chinese tourists for a long time
I have seen with my own eyes how Immigration officials would shake down all people arriving from a plane that went through China. The Chinese were made aware of the fact that they had to pay an under the table fee of 500 Baht per person just to get through Immigration. I was on the same plane and I was taken aside and told to go to a different line where no such bribe was necessary. The Chinese tourists didn't even argue because they clearly were made aware of this well before arriving.
Low safety and coverups of Chinese accidents and even deaths
There are certain cruises and tours that are only offered to Chinese people and I presume that this was at some sort of low cost group tour. These boats were overcrowded and some of them didn't even have enough life vests.
47 Chinese tourists died on this tour boat and when the boat was sinking the first people off the boat were the staff. They apparently didn't even attempt to save the people who were basically trapped on the lower deck. When the police investigated they shifted blame in every direction other than where it lies: The fact that the operators simply didn't care and were just taking money. Thai officials like to claim that they have safety standards but they really do not.
I remember when this happened because for about 2 months after it, various park officials and government people were boarding every boat ensuring that they were not overloaded and that everyone had a safety vest. A few months after that, it went back to the way it was before. The Chinese were obviously pissed about this but Thailand's response was to barely even recognize that it even happened.
Constant changing of visa rules
There is a saying in the expat community over here: "If it isn't broken, the Thai government will "fix it" until it is broken." That's what has been going on with visas here for many years. They keep fiddling with the rules making it super-easy to get one, then 2 months later it is nigh on impossible to get a visa. They will offer incentives for Chinese to travel here only to not actually give these incentives once the people are already here. You want to renew your visa to stay longer? Better get your purse open and bribe someone or pay an agent!
Graft and bribes are a regular part of Thai society and unfortunately for Thailand, this has been largely ignored by the world until recently. But now that basically everything goes online there is no denying it when it happens. Once word spread, there must have been some sort of movement among the Chinese to shun Thailand and move on to other places in SE Asia for their vacations.
Busting "illegal" Chinese tour companies
A bit part of the reason why Chinese travelers flocked to Thailand was because they had these encapsulated tours where the guides were fluent in Mandarin and Cantonese and more often than not, this was because the guides themselves were from China and many were working without work-permits because those are F**king impossible to acquire in tourism. So the labor department would raid these offices and arrest the Chinese workers and then install Thai people with degrees in Mandarin in their place. Unfortunately, someone with a degree in a language is NOT the same as someone that is actually from that country. The workers were insufficient and the tourists were not happy about this anymore.
I'm not trying to bag on Thai education too much but I once had a Thai coworker who had a Masters degree in English and this woman could barely hold down a simple conversation in English. I am sure the same would apply to Mandarin.
According to independent researchers Vietnam is now the number one destination for Chinese tourists and Malaysia is now the number one destination overall for tourism in the region. Thailand used to absolutely dominate both of these things.
I honestly don't think that Thailand can possibly pull this back even if they do offer great incentives for the Chinese to return. They've abused this nationality for far too long, much longer than I have lived here.
Plus, the fact that the government refuses to so much as acknowledge that these above things ever happened just puts a sour taste on the entire thing. They seem to have the opinion of "if we just ignore it, it will go away." Well, the internet doesn't forget!
What's the way forward? Well unfortunately for Thailand, and especially my home of Chiang Mai, they are going to have to seek out another nationality and maybe, just maybe, don't abuse the crap out of them this time. Or if they do want to try to woo the Chinese back, don't renege on the promises that they make.