I published similar study for Steem in my post Steem Inflation Profile Explains Its Price Performance around 8 months back. There have been many explainations about why steem inflation (25%) is more than planned (<9.5%). But for whatever reasons inflation remained high and so prices kept collapsing.
Althogh Hive is in existence, in itself, for much shorter time but trends can still be computed from the available data.
The figure abive shows the annulized median inflation for Hive. Median period is 10 days to reduce volatility. And more or less the inflation is same or even bit higher than Steem. And now there should not be any constraints imposed by HBD, as HBD supply is only ~6mn and way below 9mn (10 percent of 90mn mcap of Hive), as was claimed for steem.
All in all I am skeptical of Hive price performance over long term as long as the inflation remains higher than 9%, which is current target inflation for the blockchain.
Comments and feedback is welcome and much appreciated.