Greece’s economy seems to be doing better than ever. Or at least… that’s what the numbers suggest.
Because when I look a bit deeper, I see that the reality is more complex.
I want to understand what’s happening with the budget, what the new “green light” from Europe really means, and what the IMF is saying about Greece…
BUDGET 2026
I’ll start with the state budget.
And here, the news is… impressive.
For the first two months of 2026, Greece recorded a primary surplus of €2.99 billion. That’s significantly higher than the target. In simple terms, the government brought in more than it spent.
So far, so good.
But for me, the issue isn’t just WHAT the economy achieved, but HOW it achieved it.
I see that tax revenues came in lower than expected. That means the state didn’t collect more money. Instead, what really happened is that spending was much lower than anticipated.
And why did that happen?
Because many payments were pushed back, and there was also a significant delay in investment spending.
In other words, the picture looks good… but it’s not as “clean” as it first appears. This isn’t a surplus driven by explosive growth. To a large extent, it comes from restrained spending.
€1.18 BILLION INTO THE ECONOMY
Now I move to something more clearly positive.
The European Commission gave the “green light” for the disbursement of €1.18 billion to Greece from the Recovery Fund. And here we’re talking about real money flowing into the economy.
In total, Greece has now received over €24.5 billion, which is more than 68% of the total budget of the “Greece 2.0” program.
And this money isn’t going just anywhere. It’s being directed into very specific areas. Into hospitals and healthcare centers. Into the digital transformation of the state, with new systems and equipment. Into energy reforms. Into social support, such as aid for people with disabilities. And of course, into loans for businesses and housing programs.
So here I see something very important.
Beyond the “accounting” surpluses, there is real capital flowing into the economy. And that’s what drives long term growth.
WHAT THE IMF SAYS
And at this point… the IMF steps in and does something it doesn’t often do.
It gives praise. And not just praise… it talks about “major achievements.”
Greece’s public debt has fallen by 65 percentage points in five years, down to 145% of GDP.
The primary surplus exceeded 4% of GDP. Unemployment is at its lowest level since 2008.
And tourism is breaking records.
For an organization like the IMF, which is usually strict, this is significant. But there is still a big “but.”
The IMF itself says clearly: “The surpluses are good… but now I want to see improvement in people’s wallets.”
And this is where the game changes.
Because Greece has moved past the stabilization phase. Now it’s entering the quality of life phase. The IMF suggests tax changes so inflation doesn’t erode incomes.
It also suggests better targeting of support measures. And overall, it says something very simple: it’s not enough for the economy to look good on paper, I need to feel it in my daily life.
INVESTMENT VIEW
Now I connect everything:
I have a surplus.
I have inflows of European capital.
I have international organizations saying “well done.”
And on top of that, Greece seems more resilient than other European countries, even during energy crises.
In other words…
Greece today is in a much better position than I thought.
Not perfect. But definitely better.