After months of waiting, the long awaited altseason may finally be showing some green shoots...
Looking at the monthly chart of the total crypto market cap, we can see some early signs of an altseason emerging.
We have the MACD curling up and starting to cross, which is something we haven't seen in a long time...
Something like 3.5 years ago to be precise...
(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)
A MACD cross combined with a big green candle is a strong indicator of a trend change, and in this case that trend change would be to a bull market in the total crypto market.
Altcoin investors would love to see a trend change after roughly 30 months of bear market action.
All it would take from the current levels is a bit of green on the screen for the next monthly candle and it will confirm that a trend change has indeed happened and signal that altseason/crypto season is finally here.
Keep in mind that this is a monthly chart, so seeing two red candles in a row would represent two whole months of negative price action and would not be out of the ordinary given the fact we are looking at a monthly chart here.
Also keep in mind that this is a chart of the entire crypto market cap and not just the altcoins. However, since the total market cap wouldn't go up if we saw value just move from altcoins to bitcoin, I think it's safe to use the total crypto cap as a barometer for altseason as well as crypto season.
However, if you want to just look at the altcoin market, the chart looks pretty similar with a bullish MACD crossing as well on the monthly:
(Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ATOTAL2)
When you combine this chart setup with where we are in the halving cycle, it's hard not to be bullish about the entire crypto space.
We are currently 2 months removed from the most recent halving.
It took about 8 months from the previous halving (in 2016) before we saw a significant rally in the altcoin market, which may mean we have a few red monthly candles first before things get really exciting around here.
However, it does look like the trend is in the process of changing in the medium term from bearish to sideways to bullish.
Which would mean, no more lower lows, and most likely higher highs are on the way.
STEEM saw a really big rally in the spring of 2017 and if we extrapolate that same pattern out to the current cycle, it would put HIVE and the rest of the altcoins on pace to see a really big rally by the end of this year.
No guarantees it plays out exactly like that, but given everything going on globally, IE global money printing, I like our chances.
The fun is likely just beginning folks!
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc