Bitcoin hasn't been acting much like a safe haven these days...
It's been falling more than the S&P and significantly more than gold.
Which has made it hard to call bitcoin much of a safe haven.
And, if it's not a safe haven and it's not a currency, what is it exactly?
I would still argue its best use case is that of a non-correlated, non sovereign, store of value...
Though, it hasn't traded like one lately:
(Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd)
So, why do I still think that?
I have alluded to this in several other posts recently, that I think bitcoin going down was nothing really different than any other asset class going down recently...
Everything that wasn't nailed down was sold off in a flight to cash.
A liquidity event where not even gold was immune.
However, did you know that during the Great Recession back in 2008, gold initially sold off as well, before going on one of its better runs in the last several decades?
Yep, check this out:
(Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd)
As you can see, gold sold off some 30% during the height of the liquidity event in 2008.
I think we saw something very similar just happen with bitcoin.
And with the halving now just a hop skip and a jump away, I fully expect bitcoin to have a stellar second half of this year.
My bet is that by the end of this year people are going to be wishing they had scooped up bitcoin at $6k...
Remember, this isn't financial advice, just the thoughts of a random dude on the internet.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc