My personal feeling (not financial advice) is that the crypto bear market is over. The third Bitcoin mining reward halving is less than a couple of weeks from now, which seems to have sparked FOMO on the markets.
Source: coingecko.com
When Bitcoin and the rest fell of a cliff on March 12, that was the initial shock caused by the realization of what the pandemic and the response to it would do to the world economy. Gold tanked, too. The cryptocurrency space is still quite small. QE infinity as well as the programmatic scarcity of Bitcoin have a good chance of propelling it much higher than where it is now. But I think that this particular bout of FOMO that we're in now is premature as are all pre-halvening rallies. The scarcity of Bitcoin will manifest itself over a much longer period of time.
We already saw a massive pump in HIVE. The bullish market structure has by no means been invalidated. Let's take a look.
Source: coingecko.com
HIVE seems to have found a bottom above the 40 cent level. If BTC continues to rally, the uptrend of HIVE will most likely continue.
However, I don't think the market will go parabolic to a level suggested by PlanB's updated stock-to-flow (= how much BTC there is compared to the annual issuance of BTC) model called the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model, yet.
Source: PlanB's article on Medium linked above
Central to the model are changes in Bitcoin's narrative and stock-to-flow ratio, bringing about abrupt changes in the order of magnitude of Bitcoins' value. The idea is to remove time from the equation and use the same formula for different store-of-value assets.
This is how monthly price data clusters as a function of the stock-to-flow rate.
We all know that altcoins in general, including HIVE, move more or less in tandem with BTC. This is so because successful Bitcoin investors often look for other cryptos to invest in and gain massive returns after selling BTC. The markets anticipate this, which is why there has been a long-term decline in Bitcoin dominance as investors increasingly try and get in early when it comes to altcoins.
Some altcoins such as Hive have a strong value proposition unrelated to Bitcoin but the fact is that we have a lot of work to do to convince even the rest of the crypto space of that. There is appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel thanks to our extensive Twitter campaign. The problem is many of the prominent commentators in the crypto space are Bitcoin maximalists. But the ongoing crypto purges are our greatest ally in this. I confess that I'm amused at Bitcoin maximalists suffering under the yoke of centralize platforms. What we need to do is persuade them to let go of the idea that begging for a centralized entity to let them publish their videos or blogs is dignified behavior, let alone ultimately nothing but futile. It's actually quite amusing but I realize that mocking people is rarely a good strategy to get them to accept your offers.
So, I hope I have established that Hive has a bright future by now. Why do I say that I embraced the bear market? Because it was overwhelmingly the easiest time to amass STEEM later HIVE tokens.
Here's an image from 's Daily Hive Stats Report from yesterday:
Wow! There has been a massive increase in the daily number of posts. From about 15 thousand to 23 thousand in just five days! That's a massive 50% increase! It clearly co-incides with the price pump. Imagine what this is going to look like in the last quarter of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022 when Bitcoin's next real parabolic rally is topping out. What would be the price of HIVE be at that point? I'm guessing it could be somewhere between $10 and $30. In early 2018, STEEM topped out at $8.57 after Bitcoin had topped out at $20,000. If Bitcoin tops out at $300,000 like PlanB's Stock-to-Flow-Cross-Asset model suggests, then we could see the price of HIVE double from the previous top of STEEM as STEEM itself doubled from the top prior to that, which was $4. This guesstimate takes into account that HIVE has a much higher rate of inflation than Bitcoin.
How many people would be trying their luck getting those juicy rewards on Hive near the next bull market top? I'm guessing the number could increase by an order of magnitude or more. That would make earning HIVE rather difficult compared to how difficult it is even now, let alone what I call the Golden Age of earning STEEM/HIVE, which started from the introduction of the EIP in September 2019 and which seems to be drawing to a close as we speak. Hive is still completely superior to any other platform to monetize your content for nearly everyone. But as the number of daily posts increases, earning HIVE will become all the more difficult. I will, however, drop a hint as a reward for those who had the stamina to read this far as to what I think is the smartest course of action as the price increases: choose to get 50% of your rewards as HBD and power up a none of them close to what you think is the top - and keep them in HBD through the subsequent crash. When/if the price of HIVE reaches the lofty height of $5 to $15 or whatever the top may be, even small rewards in terms of HIVE will correspond to a lot of HBD's. If you keep that part of your rewards in HBD, you can buy a load of HIVE to power up come the next bear market. That's how you embrace the next bear market.