So for those who think this steem-hive fiasco will end anytime soon, well, I am sorry to disappoint you but it won't. The steem/Korean witnesses/community are not ready to stop talking about hive. I have been translating most of their posts from Korean to English. They think we are centralized tribalists and they will do anything in their power to get back at witnesses who left steem and created a copy-cat chain and did not include them in their worthless airdrop which unfortunately is of more value than the steem coin. Also, we have a group of witness-haters who are joining forces with the Koreans to keep steem running. I must commend them because their faith in the steem blockchain is strong and delusional but it's quite understandable. When hate and angry are the motives for anything it's almost impossible to see any other thing than your enemies destroyed.
Now I'm not going to spare the hive witnesses and community. They've, I mean we've been equally as malicious as they have been. Yes, we can justify our supposed righteous anger. Justin came into our playhouse and destroyed everything. And it's heartbreaking seeing people from our previous community support him.
Do not get it twisted, there is a lot of sentimental value attached to steem. So I do understand why many who chose to break are still attached--they still even have tokens there to withdraw, so there is still very much a lot of interest in steem, even for hive community members.
Now how will this all end really?
I have a few ideas which I will share shortly.
Steem price will tank.
This isn't something I want to happen. I still want to make some steem tokens and sell for a decent price. I still have stake here worth something. However, it is inevitable and for two many reasons:
POWER DOWNS
A lot of accounts are powering down--major accounts with a lot of steem. The same is happening on hive but not on the same scale. This I feel will have an impact on the price of the steem token.
JUSTIN ISN'T PUMPING THE STEEM COIN
I know a lot of people want to believe this but it will never happen. Honestly, it is foolish from an investor's point of view to put money in steem right now. Well, except you want to build an entire blockchain around the steem Korean community.
I'm yet to hear Justin make any official statement about steem. He has been making announcements upon announcement about Tron related projects but never steem, so I do wonder how he is able to engender the confidences of the new witnesses -- actual human witnesses.
ABUSE OF THE REWARD POOL
Anyone who still uses steem will notice this. And it's not just only pro-hive community members farming votes and raping the reward pool, even the said steem community members are doing the same. It's going to be ugly in about a month's time trust me. Yes, you might argue that some stake are locked in accounts that are no longer operate but the more the reward pool is been abused the more those tokens are diluted.
So it is my belief that as the ship sinks deeper and it becomes apparent that things won't end well and the price of hive goes up, you will see the remaining members of the steem community migrate to hive. I also strongly believe that there might be a compromise for the Korean community and a second airdrop might happen. This I give a 30% chance. This whole back and forth between both communities will end in compromise.
However, they might be some individual who will refuse to leave out of pride. They will watch the ship sink totally and move elsewhere but never hive. The hate is deeper than what some of you think. For many, this is merely a misunderstanding and they are still room to mend relationships. I do want to see the Koreans on hive and hopefully, they have better representation. To be honest they hardly had visibility prior to the hardfork. Now I'm reading and translating their posts. Maybe a slot at the top 20. It is doable. I think the SMT will be launched soon, so hopefully, if it is their or anyone's plan is to abuse the reward pool, such an opportunity will not be available. One of the reasons I am trying my best to become a dolphin as soon as possible. Earning hive won't be that easy after SMT from what I am hearing or understand. Currently, a lot of us are earning quite well. I don't deem that to be the case for so long, so it's in your best interest to use this opportunity well.
[Edited]
I see this spilt as an ideological one with little or no bearing on morals, so I will avoid arguments around the moral justification of actions taken so far. Both parties have engaged in questionable actions. However, the primary purpose of a blockchain is to be decentralized and that's why, no matter how you want to look at it, hive will always have the upper hand. You can call it an oligopoly and it might be that, however, it's not controlled by one individual. I cannot say the steem about steem. Even the steem witnesses, I doubt, know what's happening on their chain currently.
So what do you think? Do you see things playing out differently? Share your thoughts with me in the comment section