The current trajectory of the Bitcoin Bull Market is starting to look more like what happened in 2013 than 2017
A lot of my investing case, and price projections, has been based on Bitcoin following what happened in 2017, at least to some degree.
I actually figured it would perform less in percentage terms of what it did in 2017 simple because the law of large numbers would start to come into play at some point.
It takes many more of dollars to move bitcoin from $20k to $40k, then it does to move bitcoin from $1k to $2k.
But, if we look at where we are compared with those previous two events, the trajectory is actually looking more similar to 2013 than 2017.
Check this out:
https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics/status/1346849729431232514/photo/10
- ecoinometrics
As we can see, we have been tracking right between both of those previous post halving bull markets, but as of lately, we have been going vertical.
Which is closer to what we saw in 2013 as opposed to 2017.
As it stands now, we are getting very close to the halving trend line, which is sitting around $41k at the at now.
What should you should expect if Bitcoin keeps doing what it's doing?
While the year will likely be different, it looks like Bitcoin may do something closer to what it did in 2013 where it had a big surge followed by a pullback followed by another big surge.
If you look back at the 2013 bull market, you will see that it had a vertical start to it's show, followed by several months of consolidation, eventually followed by another big surge leading to a blow off top, proceeding with that pattern would have us Topping in May of this year.
Based on us being in January already without having a multi-month consolidation, I don't think that is likely to be when Bitcoin eventually peaks.
Instead I think we are likely to keep rallying for a bit here, then eventually consolidate for a couple months have then have a blog off top by the end of this year.
If I had to guess, perhaps we get up to $50k, then consolidate for a few months, only to see a blow off top in late summer that takes prices well over $100k.
In some perspective, if we use the 2013 bull market in terms of returns, we would see north of $700k before this year ends and if we followed the 2017 bull market we would see north of $200k before this year ends.
So, if we continue to progress between the two, the eventual peak would be between those two prices.
which other way, with history as our guide, it looks like we have a long ways to go still!
Stay informed my friends.